Election Predictions

This is just something silly to do, like participating in a football pool...

Here are my revised predictions for the outcome of the election:

Obama with 393 electoral votes and 57% of popular vote; surprise states include: GA, ND, NC, IN, MO, WV.
The battleground is provably changed because the dynamic is changed.  I think if the election were pushed back a month that the popular vote would end up stabilizing around 62% for Obama; but some Americans just have not had time to get to know him yet.

Other predictions follow...

Democrats end up with 61 seats, not counting Lieberman and Sanders; including freshmen Lunsford (KY), Franken (MN), Musgrove (MS), Shaheen (NH), Hagen (NC), Merkley (OR), Martin (GA), Begich (AK), both Udalls (CO and NM), and of course Warner (VA).  Yes, I am predicting that all three competitive races in the south (MS, KY, GA) break for the Democrats in this landslide election, and we owe it all to fools like Michele Bachmann who pulled down the last veil hiding Republican indecency and revealed to American voters just how hateful one of the parties has become.

Democrats get 284 house seats to 151 Republicans, many of the races are surprises that suddenly tipped in favor of Democrats because of Bachmann's comments after a whole season of McCain-Palin foolishness.  Openly racist rhetoric and bellicose speeches by junior house members will no longer be tolerated, and voters will dump incumbents more readily in the new era if they say embarrassing things like Virgil Goode and Thelma Drake and Michele Bachmann have been doing.  Congress will finally be held accountable for a while.

The hate proposition (Prop 8 ) loses big time in California - by more than 10%; this despite overwhelming funding by the LDS church in Utah.  Which will bring into public discussion the tax-free status of religion in America.  I do not predict any immediate change, but a period where so-called religious institutions have to be a little more circumspect and less overt in their political involvement so they do not stir up trouble and force the American public to change the tax rules on them.

Sadly, I also predict widespread voter suppression by the Republican party, continued doubts about the validity of our unverified voting process and huge dismay over the wide variances in election procedures from state to state; yet I doubt Americans will demand reform in large enough numbers to actually provide for a verified election, consistent voting rules coast to coast, and removal of the bi-partisan control of our government.  They didn't after the last three contested elections, why should they now?

Three things we should be talking about:

Tags: 2008 election, fun, instant runoff voting, open debates, verified voting (all tags)

Comments

3 Comments

Re: Election Predictions

Obama 52%, McCain 46%, other candidates 1-2%

Dems end up with 58 Senate seats, Republicans 40 seats, and independents 2 seats (Sanders and Lieberman)

Proposition 8 loses, 51 (no) to 49 (yes)

Democrats pick up 21 seats in the House

by markjay 2008-10-28 05:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Election Predictions

I like the posters prediction. Let's work to make it happen.

by onlinesavant 2008-10-28 07:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Election Predictions

Obama will win with about 310 electoral votes. The Democrats will hold 58 senate seats and 252 house seats.

Because of gerrymandering, it will be difficult for the Democrats to get above 260 seats in the House. But they will win the total popular vote by a very large margin, a much bigger margin than Obama's margin over McCain.

by Zzyzzy 2008-10-28 08:30AM | 0 recs

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