WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

A while back I broke down the likely delegate splits in Oregon and in Kentucky, now I'll take a look at the remaining states West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota.

I'll start with West Virginia, which has 28 delegates to award on May 13.  They break down as follows (from the Green Papers:


  • 10 delegates by statewide total


    • 7 At-Large delegates

    • 3 PLEO delegates


  • 18 district delegates


    • 6 delegates to WV-01

    • 6 delegates to WV-02

    • 6 delegates to WV-03


Going off of the latest Rasmussen poll of WV, Clinton leads 56-27, in keeping with her large margins among Appalachia.  If they split undecideds, she wins 65-35, which is entirely reasonable considering the numbers she got in the rural counties in other states that border West Virginia.

The PLEO delegates are an easy 2-1 split for her, the at-large will split 5-2 if she does indeed make 64.3% of the two-candidate vote (excluding non-viable candidates like Edwards).  If I split the undecideds 50-50 from the Rasmussen poll, she just barely does that.  Otherwise 4-3.  I suspect Obama will manage to avoid losing by 30%, but for a worst case scenario for him, let's say it's 5-2.

WV-01: Represented by Alan Mollohan, who is uncommitted.  As long as Clinton breaks 58.3% here she makes 4-2, which is the best she can go unless she breaks 75%.

WV-02: Represented by Republican Shelley Moore Capito.  Same dynamics here, though it possibly offers Obama the best hope in the state of holding Clinton under 58% and getting the 3-3 split, but unlikely unless previous trends change.  Clinton should get 4-2 here as well.

WV-03: Represented by Nick Rahall, who backs Obama.  Despite his endorsement, this is probably the district of the state where Clinton does best, but I don't think even here she will get 75%, though it may be close.  I predict 4-2.

Total: 19-9 if Clinton passes 64% statewide, 18-10 if not, 17-11 if Obama manages to improve his standing in the state.  Clinton has a shot at 20-8 if she manages to hit 75% in WV-03.

...

Then there is Oregon and Kentucky, which under my predictions will split 29-23 and 16-35 respectively if current polls bear out (which as we know does not always happen) for a combined 45-58 on May 20.

Then Puerto Rico with 55 delegates on June 1, which I can't even start to attack, except by noting that it breaks its delegates down in much the same way as the states, and even if Clinton wins big here she won't net much more than 10 delegates at the most.  21-34 is about the worst Obama can do here.

Finally, Montana and South Dakota on June 3, which I have not been able to to find any credible polls for, but due to Obama's performance in the surrounding areas it is safe to say he will at least win the states, even though they are primaries and not caucuses.

Montana breaks their 16 delegates down as follows:


  • 6 delegates by statewide total


    • 4 At-Large delegates

    • 2 PLEO delegates


  • 10 district delegates


    • 5 delegates for the western half of MT-AL

    • 5 delegates to eastern half of MT-AL


Since Montana only has one congressional district, rather than assign 10 delegates to that one district they split it up by their old 1980 map, when Montana had two congressional districts.  This ensures that Obama will get the 3-2 splits in both (that being more certain in the western half which has Missoula) by simply winning a majority in both.  The PLEO and at-large will split even.  9-7 from Montana seems a safe call.

South Dakota breaks their 15 delegates down as follows:


  • 6 delegates by statewide total


    • 4 At-Large delegates

    • 2 PLEO delegates


  • 9 district delegates, all from SD-AL

Unlike Montana, all 9 district delegates are from their single congressional district, which will be won 5-4 with a simple majority unless Obama breaks 61%, which may happen, but probably won't.  The PLEO and at-large split even again.  8-7 from South Dakota.

...

All together, Obama can expect at least 91 more pledged delegates (assuming he gets at least 20 in Puerto Rico, a pretty safe assumption), with the potential for getting 100 or more.  He has 1590.5 pledged delegates so far with 279 confirmed superdelegates, putting him at 1869.5 total delegates.  Add 91 and he will have 1960.5 total by the last primary, if he doesn't gain another single superdelegate.  Taking a look at the add-on schedule shows that he can be expected to get another 20 or so from that group, putting him at least 1980.  Throw in the superdelegates who have publicly promised to support the pledged delegate winner and Obama needs only 37 more to declare and he has hit 2025.  Considering the superdelegate endorsement rate of the past few days, and taking into account the likely boost he will get once he hits 50% of pledged delegates on May 20, it is obvious that he will hit 2025, probably before the last states have voted.

Tags: 2008, Election, Montana, Primary, South Dakota, West Virginia (all tags)

Comments

16 Comments

Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

Spot on great diary!

by obamaovermccain 2008-05-12 01:42PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

right you are

by dawolfe 2008-05-12 02:45PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

Great analysis, as always.  Rec'd

by NewOaklandDem 2008-05-12 01:45PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

I really think that Obama could win Puerto Rico.  I've been reading the papers there and they have turned on Hillary. As I said before, Puerto Ricans don't like voting for a loser and right now, Hillary is being portrayed as a loser in PR.

by sweet potato pie 2008-05-12 01:59PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

That sounds interesting.  Are any of the PR newspapers on-line?  I'd love to see Obama win the final priamry before the MT ans SD caucuses.

by NewOaklandDem 2008-05-12 02:04PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

Yes. El Nuevo Dia.  

elnuevodia.com. The most prominent political pundit in PR, Desde Washington has been very insightful about PR. Also, PR has voted for blacks in the past so there isn't a fake brown v. black issue as has been portrayed here.

by sweet potato pie 2008-05-12 02:10PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

Sorry I meant Jose Delgado.

by sweet potato pie 2008-05-12 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

Thanks.  I'll check it out.

by NewOaklandDem 2008-05-12 02:21PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

I've read a number of these diaries. When this is over, you should do a diary that recaps your predictions and the actual totals.  

by freedom78 2008-05-12 02:31PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

obama could win puerto rico? is that a joke? he has no chance. Hillary is going to win big there and montana is not a caucus, i don't know about south dakota.

by darlene25 2008-05-12 02:41PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

Montana and South Dakota are both primaries.

And, as Bill Clinton might say, Jesse Jackson won Puerto Rico in 1988.  I don't know why everyone assumes Hillary is going to win a landslide there.

by Skaje 2008-05-12 03:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama has won

Yeah, right before Wright blew chunks all over the place.
by BrandingIron17 2008-05-13 06:58AM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

Vote McCain... Hillary 2012!

by sterkt 2008-05-12 03:21PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

Stay classy citizen

by obamaovermccain 2008-05-12 03:30PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

The problem with this type of thinking is that if Obama loses the GE  Hillary will get some of the blame, be it true or not it will be the perception. If this is the case her political clout diminishes greatly and her ability to run in 2012 would be while not impossible, pretty darn close to it.

by jsfox 2008-05-12 03:40PM | 0 recs
Re: WV, MT, and SD delegate predictions

Hillary Clinton thinks you are wrong.

by jaiwithani 2008-05-12 04:17PM | 0 recs

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