Oregon Delegate Predictions

Oregon has 52 pledged delegates to award on its May 20 contest.  They break down as follows (from the Green Papers:


  • 18 delegates by statewide total


    • 12 At-Large delegates

    • 6 PLEO delegates


  • 34 district delegates


    • 7 delegates to OR-01

    • 5 delegates to OR-02

    • 9 delegates to OR-03

    • 7 delegates to OR-04

    • 6 delegates to OR-05


Going off the April 6 Survey USA poll, which found that 52% support Obama and 42% support Clinton, as well as Obama's strength in the surrounding regions, I am going to predict Obama maintains his 10 point lead and wins 55%-45%.

So the PLEO delegates are an easy 3-3 breakdown, unless Obama exceeds expectations and passes 58.33% statewide.

To get the At-Large delegates to break down 7-5, Obama must hit 54.17% statewide, which I believe he narrowly will, otherwise that too splits even 6-6.

Then it's on to the congressional districts...

OR-01: 7 delegates.
Represented by David Wu, who just endorsed Obama today, this district is based in northwestern Oregon and has some of the Portland area within it.  As it is a odd-numbered district this is a pretty safe 4-3 split for Obama unless he somehow gets to 64.3%.

OR-02: 5 delegates.
Represented by Republican (the only one) Greg Walden, this rural GOP-leaning district encompasses the entire eastern half of the state.  While Obama has fared poorly in midwestern rural areas, the rural mountain west has been strong for him, and the Survey USA breakdown shows him actually performing better outside of Portland, leading by 26% across the rest of the state.  Safe call: 3-2 Obama win here.

OR-03: 9 delegates.
Represented by Earl Blumenauer, who endorsed Obama back in February, this district is basically urban Portland, the most Democratic part of the state which explains its large delegate count.  Obama would have to break 61.1% here to achieve the 6-3 split, which is possible, but unlikely.  A safer bet is a 5-4 delegate split achieved by Obama winning a simple majority of the vote.

OR-04: 7 delegates.
Represented by Pete DeFazio, who is neutral, this district covers the westen side of the state below the Portland area.  Obama performed well in the California counties that border this district, and due to his statewide strength I think it is unlikely that Clinton will snag this district.  4-3 Obama, unless it turns into a rout and he hits 64.3%.

OR-05: 6 delegates.
Represented by retiring Darlene Hooley, who endorsed Clinton, this district includes southern suburbs of Portland as well as the state capitol Salem.  Even if Clinton wins this district on account of the endorsement (unlikely), she would have to get 58.33% to break it in her favor.  I don't think Obama will do that either.  3-3 it is.

...

All together that's 29-23 for Obama as long as he wins the state by a solid 10% margin.  If the margin falls to 8% then Obama splits the at-large and it is 28-24, unless Clinton overperforms and wins a district besides OR-05.

Will it be enough to cancel out Kentucky, which votes on the same day?  I'll take a look at that tomorrow.

Tags: 2008, delegates, Oregon, Primary (all tags)

Comments

9 Comments

Re: Oregon Delegate Predictions

Obama has far more donors in Oregon where he enjoys a 3 to 1 fundraising advantage.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/04/23/ politics/fromtheroad/entry4036824.shtml

As we all know donors often go on to become campaign volunteers.

It looks bad for Clinton in Oregon.

by Lefty Coaster 2008-04-24 06:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Oregon Delegate Predictions

Sounds reasonable, though I could see him doing better than 5-4 in OR-03. That's pure latte-sipping country.

Be wary of KY at this point as Obama hasn't gone to Louisville and Lexington yet. He won't lose by 35 points there once he hits the big cities. He'll lose by about 20 points as Clinton racks up huge margins in the coal mining Appalachian counties and in the rural west. Northern KY, if it goes like suburban Cincinnati, could go well for Obama or at least split. And Louisville and Lexington will be good Obama areas (and they have LOTS of Democrats).

by elrod 2008-04-24 06:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Oregon Delegate Predictions

Just from taking a cursory look at KY's districts, the biggest one is Yarmuth's in Louisville, where Obama can rack up a big win.  The rest of the state has smaller odd-numbered districts which will limit Clinton to single delegate gains unless she starts breaking 70%.

At most she can net like 12 delegates.

by Skaje 2008-04-24 06:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Oregon Delegate Predictions

I'd say he's going to do well in OR-4, or at least Lane county. The Eugene office opening was packed to the rafters with a line out the door and I don't think I've seen a single Clinton lawn sign or bumper sticker in Eugene. In the voter registration I've done most of all the people were for or leaning Obama.

The snag is the southwest part of the state. Very redneck areas. My dad lives on the coast and most of the people there think he's a Muslim. These are counties that tend to go very red though so I'm not sure how many votes are to be had there.

by Obama Independent 2008-04-24 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Oregon Delegate Predictions

More Obama supporters telling us how "only rednecks and racists" vote for Hillary Clinton. How much I wish that my unwashed self was worthy enough to drink from the Fountain of Obama

by zcflint05 2008-04-24 07:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Oregon Delegate Predictions

Having lived on the southern Oregon coast for 6 years, being a gun toting low income white guy, having friends and family still in the area, I think I have some idea of the people and how they vote.

by Obama Independent 2008-04-24 08:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Oregon Delegate Predictions

Is this primary mail in?

by Bobby Obama 2008-04-24 07:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Oregon Delegate Predictions

All elections in Oregon is by mail in ballot. You have to be registered in one of the parties to vote in their primary 4 weeks before the election.

by Obama Independent 2008-04-24 08:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Oregon Delegate Predictions

This is such a fun place to work elections, with the mail in ballots.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-04-25 01:23PM | 0 recs

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