Obama winning EC 328-210!

So, I'm sure all of you have noticed that Obama is now winning the electoral college 328-210 in the counter on the main page.  How has he gotten this far ahead, after months of trailing by large margins on this site's counter?  Well, the curious methodology of this site had previously given us such odd results as Obama losing New York while winning North Dakota, but that can't entirely explain it.

Quite simply, Obama has finally reached a point where he is polling ahead in all of the midwest swing states simultaneously, most likely due to his post-primary bounce and improvement among Democratic voters.  Obama now polls ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania at the same time, whereas for most of the primary season he was only polling ahead in one or two of those states at at a time.  These four states have a combined 68 electoral votes and have all been within a few percent in the past two presidential elections.

Obama has also improved his standing in emerging swing states where he seemed to show an advantage early on, such as Colorado and Virginia, where he now polls ahead in both.  9 and 13 electoral votes respectively, we haven't won either since LBJ in 1964 (except for Colorado in 1992 due to a very high Perot vote), yet have seen themselves become more competitive in recent years due to the changing demographics of those states.

Obama is also finally winning Missouri, a classic swing state that had slipped away from us recently. He defied predictions to narrowly win the state's primary, but went on to poll poorly against McCain. That has changed, and is worth another 11 votes to Obama.

Obama has also locked down Iowa and New Mexico pretty solidly, two Gore states that Kerry lost narrowly.  The former has always been a solid state for Obama since he won the caucus there and McCain skipped it, while the latter is moving towards being solidly Democratic at the local level.  7 and 5 votes respectively.

New Hampshire, a state that Kerry won that Gore actually lost, has also moved back to Obama, as McCain showed unique strength in that state this is not to be ignored.  Only 4 votes, but McCain finds himself not any stronger in the blue states that gave him his early primary wins and sealed the nomination for him.

And finally, Obama has nailed down all the solid Democratic states that people initially doubted his strength in, such as California, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, while putting former swing states Washington and Oregon out of contention for McCain.

Where does that leave Obama?  Clearly with a big advantage going into November, McCain can only hope to narrowly win by running the table on every swing state, whereas Obama has the ability to pull states initially thought to be firmly in McCain's camp and rack up a huge landslide.  Yes, Ohio will be critical again, but we are in a different position this year.  We can win without Ohio.  McCain can't.  And with our growing strength in that state it's looking to be a long 8 years for Republicans under President Obama.

Note: Obama is also polling ahead in Indiana, a result I have difficulty believing, but he does seem to be stronger in this neighbor to Illinois than Gore or Kerry.

Tags: 2008, electoral college, obama (all tags)

Comments

16 Comments

Those are great numbers

I just hope they last throughout the season. What a blowout that would be. The realignment would be complete.

by turtlescrubber 2008-06-11 03:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Those are great numbers

The MyDD's "latest poll only" policy has always been a terrible way to gauge the election. I'll stick with fivethirtyeight - they may react to changes at a slower rate, but at least they don't let a single outlier poll (like Indiana on MyDD's current map) dominate.

by really not a troll 2008-06-11 03:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama winning EC 328-210!
It's even better news for Obama that the more people learn about McCain, the less they like him.
They say McCain excels in town hall settings. I don't really believe that is the case. McCain does HIS best in town hall settings, as opposed to EVERY OTHER SETTING he's in, but considering the number of things that he's said that have come back to haunt him in that format, he certainly can't be said to EXCEL in it.
It doesn't help that McCain can't 'code-word' his way into the hearts of conservatives while wooing independents. He's got to scrape for every evangelical vote, and often pisses off independents in the process.
It's not hard to imagine a situation in which this map continues to change in Obama's favor, as the current swing states solidify for Obama and NEW swing states come into play.
by EvilAsh 2008-06-11 04:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama winning EC 328-210!

The big question is whether the "bump" Obama has enjoyed recently is just that, a bump for winning the primaries, or whether it's a permanent, natural 4-6 point advantage that has only become clear now that the Clinton supporters have come home.

If the second one is true, then you really could imagine a landslide, although maybe not on the order that the current map indicates.

by animated 2008-06-11 04:10PM | 0 recs
it'd be wrong of me...

to not continue to criticize the methodology on that map. WI and PA have been going to Obama in the majority of polls... and the brief period where it was marked as red on the basis of one poll - which just happened to be the most recent - was absurd. In the same way, I'd like to see a longer trend in the Michigan and Ohio data before I start projecting a electoral vote margin.

Which is not to say that things aren't trending up:

www.fivethirtyeight.com

by Casuist 2008-06-11 04:17PM | 0 recs
Calm down, grasshopper.

We haven't even started the real campaign yet (that starts with the conventions).

So, calm. Deep, cleansing breaths.

Note: Obama is also polling ahead in Indiana, a result I have difficulty believing, but he does seem to be stronger in this neighbor to Illinois than Gore or Kerry.

Indiana has been trending more D lately, with the 2nd (?) district switching from Chocola (R) to Donnelly (D). Pump up the Western vote and you could see movement to toss up or maybe very slimly Dem. We also got really good D coverage late in the primary, so it was Hillary v Obama v McCain, and while a good deal was Hillary going after Obama, there was some nice concerted anti-McCain messages.

Downticket, I'm not sure if the gubernatorial race will help or hurt Obama. State still has 43% right track and wrong track numbers, Jill Long Thompson is polling ~39% (down by 7 to Mitch). If she comes close, the Rep will pull out all the get-out-the-vote stops and that'll make it tough. If she stays back, they may get complacent.

I'd say there's a decent chance with a strong GOTV effort that Indiana could go blue.

by TCQuad 2008-06-11 04:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama winning EC 328-210!

Great news!  We all have to work to make sure those numbers hold up.  

As hard as it is for many of us in the politically "tuned in" community to remember, many independent voters don't know a thing about Barack Obama.  They do, however, think that John McCain is an independently-minded "maverick" thanks to 8 years of mutual ass-kissing between McSame and the media.

We need to make sure the GOP slime machine doesn't have the chance to define our candidate.

by XoFalconXo 2008-06-11 04:45PM | 0 recs
Re: One Word

KERRY

by LtWorf 2008-06-11 04:50PM | 0 recs
Re: One Word

MY ONE WORD:  CHEESECAKE!

by Xris 2008-06-11 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: One Word

Oh, pithy meaningless retorts.

Ignore at your own peril.  And lest anyone think I am concerning, NO.  What I am an Obama supporter as many of you know.

What I am also is someone who studies history.  The first rule of history: those who forget it are destined to repeat it.

So while the optimism isn't misplaced, don't get arrogant.  This race hasn't even started and some are ready to do a victory lap.

NO.  The time to do that is Jan. 20, 2009.

by LtWorf 2008-06-11 05:48PM | 0 recs
Re: One Word

You need to chill out, its freaking June.  None of us know how the landscape is going to look in 5 months.  with that said, things look fine atm so I don't see what's wrong with being happy.

You cannot simply compare the 2004 to this election and believe its results will be any way similar to this one.  We have two different candidates, a different electorate, and a different set of issues to debate.  

So my advice to you is to respect and learn from the past, but don't obsess about it so much that you miss the joy of the ride.

by Xris 2008-06-11 06:21PM | 0 recs
Re: One Word

Actually I don't need your advice.

Care to know why?  Probably not.

But I'm going to tell you anyhow.  Because someone said the same thing to me back then.

You work on being happy.  I'll work on getting a Democrat in the White House.

by LtWorf 2008-06-11 07:01PM | 0 recs
Re: One Word

then we're on the same side and agree.  I will do all I can in my area to get Obama elected and I am not taking anything for granted.  But am also not going to let sorrow or doubt creep in.

by Xris 2008-06-12 06:58PM | 0 recs
I'll trust electoral vote

which is regularly updated http://electoral-vote.com and it shows Obama only up 287-227-24(tie). Its going to be hard for Obama in the EC, lets not bs ourselves.

by Lakrosse 2008-06-11 05:22PM | 0 recs
Re: I'll trust electoral vote

They haven't added the Michigan numbers yet, and they have Virginia and Indiana as ties.  That's the difference.  That said, I do tend to like an averaging methodology better than the "last poll rules" methodology.

by Skaje 2008-06-11 05:33PM | 0 recs
Re: I'll trust electoral vote

electoral vote has many of the same problems of Jerome's method... they're both very susceptible to the statistical noise of polling and attribute too much significance to recent polling.

by Casuist 2008-06-11 08:46PM | 0 recs

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