• comment on a post Obama punches back over 4 years ago

    "I don't want government bureaucrats meddling in your health care, but the point is I don't want insurance company bureaucrats meddling in your health care either"

    The point about insurance company bureaucrats standing between you and your doctor should be pounded over and over again in this whole debate.

  • comment on a post Open thread over 5 years ago

    The "Christopher Newport" poll cited in the previous thread is beyond trash:

    http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/news.js p?key=279654&rc=virg

    "Christopher Newport University released a Virginia poll today showing GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) with an 8-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) McCain receives 54 percent to Obama's 46 percent.

    But the poll, conducted Sept. 10 through Sunday, appears to have greatly underrepresented African-Americans and younger voters.

    The poll assumes African Americans will make up a little under 10 percent of the electorate. In the 2004 presidential race, African-Americans accounted for 21 percent of all voters in Virginia, according to exit polls.

    The poll is also based on an assumption that voters age 18 to 29, a group Obama expects to win handily, will be 3 percent of the electorate. Those voters made up 17 percent of all voters in 2004, according to exit polls.

    Christopher Newport also includes responses from just 27 percent of self-described Democrats. Virginia Democrats say their party's base is larger than that."

    It appears that you have counted this poll as part of the MyDD map in the upper left.  In light of the above, that poll should not be counted; it's worse than the Zogby Interactive polls.

    See also:

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/ 2008/09/diverging-virginia-polls.html

    http://hamptonroads.com/2008/09/poll-sho ws-mccain-warner-leading-races-virginia

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virgini apolitics/2008/09/christopher_newport_un iversity.html

  • on a comment on So many polls over 5 years ago

    The "Christopher Newport" poll you're citing is beyond trash:

    http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/news.js p?key=279654&rc=virg

    "Christopher Newport University released a Virginia poll today showing GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) with an 8-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) McCain receives 54 percent to Obama's 46 percent.

    But the poll, conducted Sept. 10 through Sunday, appears to have greatly underrepresented African-Americans and younger voters.

    The poll assumes African Americans will make up a little under 10 percent of the electorate. In the 2004 presidential race, African-Americans accounted for 21 percent of all voters in Virginia, according to exit polls.

    The poll is also based on an assumption that voters age 18 to 29, a group Obama expects to win handily, will be 3 percent of the electorate. Those voters made up 17 percent of all voters in 2004, according to exit polls.

    Christopher Newport also includes responses from just 27 percent of self-described Democrats. Virginia Democrats say their party's base is larger than that."

    It appears that you have counted this poll as part of the MyDD map in the upper left.  In light of the above, that poll should not be counted; it's worse than the Zogby Interactive polls.

  • on a comment on Post Palin over 5 years ago

    actually, the 60% "A" grade is based on 40% GOP, 29% Dem.

  • on a comment on Post Palin over 5 years ago

    if you were to extrapolate the numbers based on proportional percentage of party ID, the "A" option would have approx. 53% support in my guestimate (back of napkin) .... not bad on the surface; however, the bottom line, IMO is I don't think the "grade" in this poll necessarily equates to support.  I heard the speech too and would give her a B+ on it, but would under no circumstances vote GOP.

  • comment on a post Post Palin over 5 years ago

    "you don't represent the American majority viewpoint"

    the only problem w/ the above statement is that, when you look at the crosstabs of this poll, the poll itself clearly does not represent the viewpoint of a representative sample of Americans.
    The 60% you reference is based on a sample of 40% GOP and only 29% Dem. (as it is based only on those who heard the speech - a sample which skews towards the GOP).  Furthermore, the fact that significant numbers of non-GOP in the sample gave Palin an "A" on the speech will not translate into support of her in Nov. (for example, the 38% of blacks who gave her an "A").

  • South Dakota ...

  • exactly my point.  I think we ALL agree that ANWR is too pristine to drill (and it is indeed a special place), but so are many, many coastal areas in other parts of the country -- and how do the residents of any coastal area feel when you start talking about drilling off THEIR coast ??

  • comment on a post What's up with the EV vote predictor over 5 years ago

    is designed better I believe, as it averages the latest few polls:

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/

  • comment on a post Obama camp contends they can win without FL, OH over 5 years ago

    included this statement in your diary:

    "Asked about his remarks, Plouffe said Ohio and Florida start out very competitive -- but he stressed that they are not tougher than other swing states and said Obama will play "extremely hard" for both. But he said the strategy is not reliant on one or two states."

    -- it kind of changes the trajectory of what was said and how it's being reported here.

  • "Generally speaking, Arabs (and Muslims, in general) tend to be very conservative and tend to vote Republican overwelmingly because of R's stand of family values."

    that used to be the case -- until 5 or 6 years ago, when the Bush admin. tendency to scapegoat the whole Muslim community has turned those numbers upside down.

  • b/c of their historical accuracy ... but their MI poll yesterday had a sub-sample of only 69 African-Americans (which I believe is way too small a smaple size to get any meaningful results) which showed 62% Obama; 26% McCain; 12% undecided ! -- that's for AFRICAN-AMERICANS -- which are ridiculous results w/ Obama on top of the ticket.  Furthemore, the poll was not adjusted in any way to account for this discrepancy, meaning those raw numbers were directly factored into the end result 41 McCain -37 Obama.  I played with the numbers and if you plug in more realistic numbers like 90-95% for Obama among African-Americans, the end result would change to a 5-6 point lead for Obama, as AA are 13-14% of the population.  (I don't know/can't find any internals for this latest poll.)

  • released yesterday from SUSA which also had 4 point lead for McCain over Obama (the internals were screwy b/c the race factor had a small sample and showed Obama only getting 62% among African-Americans, w/ 26% for McCain & 12% undecided -- which are ofcourse ridiculous numbers which I think skewed the entire poll as 13% or 14% of population of MI is black) ...

    nevertheless, in this SUSA poll, when Hillary was added to the ticket (and Romney to McCain's ticket) the result was still McCain/Romney 45 - Obama/Clinton 40.  When Edwards was added it was McCain/Romney 43 - Obama/Edwards 40 ... there were also other matchups as well:

    http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=52d98ca6-6c14-4f4a-9180-4e7f1f ce8a1a

    I think Michigan GE polling is screwy at this point, b/c of the unique nature of the undecided primary situation and the fact that (except for one visit) Obama has not campaigned there yet...

  • it appears that Obama is already at a "Kerry +4" level in the state ... i just wrote a diary re. this: "Obama Shows Strength in Swing States (with MAPS)"

  • in the diary that both pollsters who specifically polled the city of Philadelphia - Quinnipiac and Susquehanna - show that Obama is winning 93-94% of the African-American vote (compared to 3-4% for McCain) so that factor does not appear to be a problem.  My only guess, therefore, is that Obama may be currently under-performing in the mostly white northeastern part of the city (something has to be balancing out the numbers in this way)...

    That would be ironic, somehow, as he is doing really well (5 points ahead of Kerry) in the mostly white Phila. suburbs, as well as 6-7 points ahead of where Kerry was in the nearly all white and very Republican central swath of PA (the "T" as some call it) and the historically very Republican south-central area.  

    If it is white voters in NE Phila., then it appears to be a very small-scale, localized effect b/c it does not appear to be occurring at that  scale anywhere else in PA -- in fact, Obama's "under-performance" in Phila. (-8 relative to Kerry) is the highest of any region in the state (despite the fact, ofcourse, that he beats McCain there by 46 points).

Diaries

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