Edwards withdrawal: good news for Obama, but better news for Hillary
by Sieglinde, Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 07:31:04 AM EST
Whoever assumes that Obama will absorb the bulk of Edwards support should pull away from his or her computer momentarily and walk a mile on Main Street. It may be that the Edwards supporters who populate the internet are mostly going to shift to the Obama column, because of this "change" thing and an understandable Clinton exhaustion. But these folks are a minority of Edwards supporters.
Obama may be able to attract the upper class liberals who support(ed) Edwards out of admirable idealism, perhaps along with the powerful "grassroots" elites who despise Washington's corrupt influence market. But Hillary will take the union families and the street progressives who don't have the luxury of reading blogs at Starbucks and who can't afford 'experimenting' with this "change" thing. They need to hear specifics the way Edwards has always done. Hillary addresses their concerns masterfully.
In my view, Edwards' supporters will fracture neatly into two (regardless of who he endorses), the way the electorate has been dividing between Hillary and Obama all along: Obama will get the high-end idealistic post-grad Dems along with the Clinton-haters and Washington-haters, but Hillary will get a healthy chunk of the lower income, non-college grad rank-and-file. Therefore, nothing changes in the relative proportions. And if that's the case, Hillary may end up with the coveted (but slim) majority of delegates, and the nomination.