Edwards withdrawal: good news for Obama, but better news for Hillary

Whoever assumes that Obama will absorb the bulk of Edwards support should pull away from his or her computer momentarily and walk a mile on Main Street.  It may be that the Edwards supporters who populate the internet are mostly going to shift to the Obama column, because of this "change" thing and an understandable Clinton exhaustion.  But these folks are a minority of Edwards supporters.

Obama may be able to attract the upper class liberals who support(ed) Edwards out of admirable idealism, perhaps along with the powerful "grassroots" elites who despise Washington's corrupt influence market.  But Hillary will take the union families and the street progressives who don't have the luxury of reading blogs at Starbucks and who can't afford 'experimenting' with this "change" thing.  They need to hear specifics the way Edwards has always done.  Hillary addresses their concerns masterfully.

In my view, Edwards' supporters will fracture neatly into two (regardless of who he endorses), the way the electorate has been dividing between Hillary and Obama all along:  Obama will get the high-end idealistic post-grad Dems along with the Clinton-haters and Washington-haters, but Hillary will get a healthy chunk of the lower income, non-college grad rank-and-file.  Therefore, nothing changes in the relative proportions.  And if that's the case, Hillary may end up with the coveted (but slim) majority of delegates, and the nomination.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards (all tags)

Comments

10 Comments

You would say that.

Hillary could rob a bank and kill everyone in it and you STILL would endorse her.

What a bunch of zombies you are!

by Nedsdag 2008-01-30 07:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards withdrawal:

Pundits keep saying Edwards takes support away from her and hurts her more than Obama, but it would not be the first time they've been dead wrong, so I don't know.  It certainly seems like he would have hurt her in the South if he had stayed in.  We'll know soon enough.

by reasonwarrior 2008-01-30 07:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards withdrawal: good news for Obama, but b

Obama may be able to attract the upper class liberals who support(ed) Edwards out of admirable idealism, perhaps along with the powerful "grassroots" elites who despise Washington's corrupt influence market.  But Hillary will take the union families and the street progressives who don't have the luxury of reading blogs at Starbucks and who can't afford 'experimenting' with this "change" thing.  They need to hear specifics the way Edwards has always done.  Hillary addresses their concerns masterfully.

I kinda found this paragraph hilarious, cause like, you've got me pegged perfectly but then you put me in the wrong category.

by Steve M 2008-01-30 08:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards withdrawal: good news for Obama, but b

Had Edwards not been in FL what would have happened. Clinton would have been around 60% and Obama would have been around 40%. Edwards demo will split but she's probably going to get about two thirds of it for the simple reason that there are more beer drinkers than wine and Latte sippers. The notion that bloggers here and elsewhere are the archetypal Edwards constituency is fairly typical of bloggers obsession with themselves and their media. Unfortunately it doesn't much correspond to reality.  

by ottovbvs 2008-01-30 09:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards withdrawal: good news for Obama, but b

Well, apparently I'm not the typical latte-drinker either.

by Steve M 2008-01-30 09:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards distracts from FL

One other way that Edwards' withdrawal from the race benefits Obama: Hillary's "victory" in FL is not being covered. On the dem side, today's story is all about Edwards--and, to a lesser extent, Caroline Kennedy campaigning with Obama. So, Clinton may not get any real momentum from FL.

by DPW 2008-01-30 09:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards distracts from FL

And the obsession with mo is another blogging myth. Did SC provide Obama with any mo in FL. Did NV provide Hillary with any in SC. So much discussion here revolves around emperors clothes. They aint there. What's important are voting blocs and their loyalty. I saw nothing yesterday to make me believe hers is departing in any material sense.  

by ottovbvs 2008-01-30 09:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards withdrawal: good news for Obama, but b

exit polling had edwards actually WINNING with 'conservative" Democrats in florida.

now, who finds THAT interesting?

by Seymour Glass 2008-01-30 09:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards withdrawal: good news for Obama, but b

All along I said the best reason to support Edwards was that he could attract conservative votes and still run the most progressive campaign.

Wasn't enough for him in the end, but still, it was a good argument.

by Steve M 2008-01-30 09:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards withdrawal: good news for Obama, but b

where do they go....seems to me, to clinton

by Seymour Glass 2008-01-30 10:02AM | 0 recs

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