The lazy and the stupid... and the Bush voter
by SevenStrings, Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:21:39 AM EDT
I have been diarying about energy consumption issues. In this diary, I will examine possible connections between a person's intelligence (as characterized by the universally acclaimed metric of IQ), and his/her energy consumption... and his/her possible inclinations to vote Republican.
(1) a state's inclination to vote Democratic can be strongly correlated by it's per capita energy consumption.
(2) Of the more energy efficient states, only Colorado and Utah voted for Bush in 2004. It is ironic that these are now threatening to turn blue
(3) The swing states tend to be those where per capita energy consumption is close to the US Average.
(4) If you add up (1)-(3) above, it would mean that a push for energy efficiency would also result in more Democratic leaning voters.
This chart summarizes the statewide Bush vote share in the 2004 elections as a function of that state's per capita energy consumption.
As you can see, there is a very strong correlation between the two. Notice that I use the word "correlation" and not "cause-effect".
And what about IQ ? The chart below plots average statewide IQ as a function of statewide per capita energy consumption.
Notice the absence of any correlation. [The slightly negative slow of the "fit" is meaningless in this case ~ the uncertainty in the estimated negative slope is greater than the slope itself.]
Thus, we can safely conclude that there is no discernible correlation between intelligence and energy consumption ~ smart people and stupid people are just as likely to be energy hogs!
Again, notice that I used the phrase "no discernible correlation". This implies that there may be a correlation, but that the correlation is too small to be measured with the methods in this plot.
And finally, is there a tendency amongst smart people to vote Democratic ?
Unfortunately (fortunately, from my viewpoint... I happen to be a centrist with progressive inclinations), the answer is No. You can see this from the chart below:
Once again, I would ignore the slightly negative slope of the fit ~ the uncertainly in the estimated slope is greater than the slope itself, and therefore the negative value of the slope is meaningless...This data does not imply that dump people are more likely to vote Democratic.
And what about the swing states ? In the chart below, I have marked 15 swing states of 2008 in Orange. As you can see, the swing states tend to be those that have intermediate levels of energy consumption ~ where the per capita energy consumption is close the US Average (12,347 kWhr/person-year)
(1) http://www.zombietime.com/iq_of_2004_vot ers_by_state/
(2) http://www.energy.ca.gov/electricity/us_ per_capita_electricity_2005.html
(3) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_state #Swing_States_as_of_2008