So many bubbles, so little time

Here is what Sen. Obama's Rasmussen numbers look like

This is an update to an earlier diary
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/26/1332 3/5146

For an excellent primer on how bubbles form and collapse, I recommend this article from an excellent blog on the housing market (since this is the most recent example of a bubble)

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/03 29/efficient-markets-vs-behavioral-fina nce

The various events referred to in the first plot are:

(a) YouTube videos (this was pointed out by J Armstrong)

The videos are
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-m YY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fZHou18C dk

These videos were viewed a combined 11M times.

(b) Michelle Obama  "For the first time in my adult life, I am proud of my country"

The rest probably do not need any explanation!

PS:  Before I get gored by Sen. Obama's supporters, I should point out that it is somewhat hard to make a similar "bubble" like analogy for Sen. Clinton's support ~ she never had those kind of support levels.  And yes, I am just having a little fun.  Do not take me too seriously :)

Tags: bubbles, obama (all tags)

Comments

22 Comments

Re: So many bubbles, so little time

"she never had those kind of support levels."

That tells the story of the Clinton campaign.

Still recycling Michelle's comment? Wow...you guys don't really have much left, do ya?

by jwolf 2008-04-04 03:53PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

recycling is good for the environment :)

have a nice day

by SevenStrings 2008-04-04 04:14PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

Actually, your graph is much more likely to show an upturn than a downturn. The last position shows that the low didn't hit below the previous low and the high hit as high as the previous high. He'd have to keep rising up to make it a true comeback, but your graph shows greatest potential for a positive future, not negative.

by vcalzone 2008-04-04 04:24PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

CONFIRMED by the latest result, which is 52/48! Booya! Haven't done technical analysis for awhile, glad to see I've still got atleast SOME skill.

by vcalzone 2008-04-04 04:28PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

Whoops, I mean 52/46.

by vcalzone 2008-04-04 04:28PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

Umm...that kind of technical analysis usually makes one broke =)

by SevenStrings 2008-04-04 04:40PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

But you can't deny an upturn, even if it might only be the upturn before another big downturn. If you were going to place money in a direction, would you really go short?

Of course, this IS all silly, remembering that this is public opinion polling. Very few companies are affected by the news every second of every day, and you can't predict stuff that comes out of nowhere.

by vcalzone 2008-04-04 05:04PM | 0 recs
You seem to have done some tech analysis

So you will understand if I say that I have my own methods.  I would not bet on an upturn or a downturn based solely on the analysis you did.

I rely very heavily on market volumes.  Sadly, market volume (or the equivalent of it) is not available in opinion polls.  In the absence of the "market volume" indicator, I believe that it is impossible to gauge what the markets are telling us.

However, I do agree that most people who do technical analysis would agree that an upturn would be the logical outcome ~ based on the observations you just made =)

by SevenStrings 2008-04-04 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: You seem to have done some tech analysis

Oh, definitely. Volume is useless in polling. But absolutely necessary when doing real TA. At least when you're talking about upturns vs bull traps. We should totally do some Point & Figure charts.

by vcalzone 2008-04-04 05:20PM | 0 recs
Re: You seem to have done some tech analysis

Why don't you create such charts... My wife is getting annoyed at me spending so much time on another silly project.  So my time is getting more and more precious =)

by SevenStrings 2008-04-04 05:24PM | 0 recs
Re: You seem to have done some tech analysis

Just did. Higher lows and higher highs indicate Obama rise, and Hillary's looks pretty bad. She took a HUGE beating. I'm not sure what it was, but she needs to move above -6 and stay there to survive. At least where this chart is concerned. Far, far more worrisome is McCain's chart. It chronicles a meteoric rise that puts Obama's to shame.

by vcalzone 2008-04-04 06:32PM | 0 recs
by SevenStrings 2008-04-04 06:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Now take a look at this =)

Good, but you should update it to reflect recent polling data. When I did a comparison in Excel of 4,9,13 day averages, I saw the 4 day line cross back above the 9, and the 9 bounce off the 13. We'll see, maybe next week it will head back downwards. But he's primed for a decent rise.

by vcalzone 2008-04-05 01:56PM | 0 recs
so basically

you are saying Obama and his supporters are now in despair??

That interesting since you know neither I nor other Obama supporters feel despair.

by kindthoughts 2008-04-04 04:29PM | 0 recs
Re: so basically

I did not say any such thing. A bear rally is what I would have suggested...

by SevenStrings 2008-04-04 04:40PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

When ya look at the more detailed data, another pattern emerges:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/favorable_ratings_for_pres idential_candidates

Obama's "Very Favorable" and "Favorable" ratings are the highest they've been since his highest point. And his "Very Unfavorable" ratings show a very steep decline after skyrocketing following the Wright controversy.

by vcalzone 2008-04-04 04:33PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

Yes, I have noticed that too...

I suspect it is due to the "TUZLA" effect.

by SevenStrings 2008-04-04 04:41PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

Have there been surveys done about that? Do people really care? Cause I know I don't.

by vcalzone 2008-04-04 04:56PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

I think it might be more likely that we're seeing a natural pull towards McCain hitting Clinton harder than Obama. Cause she was always perceived as in the same strata as McCain, and now he's really working on his numbers.

by vcalzone 2008-04-04 04:58PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

I don't either...but I suspect that a lot of people do (at least, judging from the intensity of the comments here)

by SevenStrings 2008-04-04 04:59PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

Oh, people on the Internet go crazy over anything. Look at all the stuff shoveled out about Obama on a daily basis here. I didn't get up in arms about the Geraldine Ferraro BS, either.

by vcalzone 2008-04-04 05:07PM | 0 recs
Re: So many bubbles, so little time

I have discovered an old trick

I refer to Sen. Obama as Sen. Obama, Sen CLinton as Sen Clinton, and Sen McCain as Sen McCain

It is hard to go crazy when you address them respectfully.  The "Clintonista" "John McBush" etc. references are meant to achieve the opposite.  Sort of like if you play basketball, and if you are a "softie", your coach will demand that you take a hard foul in the first 5 minutes... just so you can get riled up and play hard.

by SevenStrings 2008-04-04 05:23PM | 0 recs

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