"Hillary Hatred" and other questions !!

In this diary, I will examine two questions:
(1)    What effect did the YouTube Sermons and Sen. Obama's speech have on the dynamics of the race ?
(2)    What drives Hillary hatred ?

As an added bonus, you can also examine the effect of the "Tuzla sniper" incident.

I will do this by examining trends in the favorability- unfavorability numbers for Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton, as provided by the tracking polls of Rasmussen.  I have diaried on this before, but now I am able to provide additional information.  

(1) Effect of the YouTube Sermons, and Sen. Obama's speech

First, a discussion is in order about polling methods, use of Rasmussen vs Gallup etc., and how this analysis differs from the negligible changes in the Obama/Clinton numbers available from Rasmussen and Gallup.

In examining the effect of the YouTube Sermons, and that of Sen. Obama's speech, we should look at the trends in the raw Favorability/Unfavorability numbers, and not the Obama/Clinton comparison.  Sen. Obama could be badly damaged due to the YouTube sermons, and still appear to have gained ground with respect to Sen. Clinton because Sen. Clinton could also have been damaged by other unrelated events.  In fact, as I will show that both Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton have suffered as a result of the YouTube sermons, but the short-term loss was greater for Sen. Clinton (go figure ~ this is a topic for the "What drives Hillary hatred" question).

Second, a lot of people question my use of Rasmussen.  "Didn't they just say that HRC would lose to McCain by 7% in AR.  That must mean that they are a crappy outfit, and one should not use their numbers".  This is a somewhat fair point ~ one should not rely on their raw numbers: their methodology may mean that there exists a large and systematic difference between their raw numbers and the right value.  However, we can still rely on "trends" within their numbers.  They can be systematically off, but as long as their methodology is consistent from day to day, they will be systematically off by about the same amount.  Thus, we can still examine trends within their numbers, provided those trends are outside the "margin of error"

And that brings us to the final point: what is their margin of error ?  They do not report this for the favorability/ unfavorability numbers, so we are left on our own for this.  We could infer the margin of error from the charts, but this assumes that we have an accurate enough model for the underlying trendline (in nerd-speak, the margin of error originates from the standard deviation of repeat measurements of the same entity; for accurate standard deviation estimates, you need a very large sample size).  In our case, the trendline is unknown (because that is what we are trying to estimate), and two data points refer to different entities (public opinion on different days) so we do not know the margin of error.  And so, when looking at my conclusions, keep that in mind and draw your own conclusions (as noted on the charts, the solid lines are meant to guide the eye, and are not fitted models).

And finally, to the important question:

Qu 1.a:  Did the YouTube Sermons damage Sen. Obama ? Did his speech work ?

The graphs above shows the (favorability - unfavorability) and the strongly favorable-strongly unfavorable) numbers for Sen Obama, with the 2 events marked.  You can clearly see the "trend reversal" brought upon by the "YouTube sermons", and the lack of any trend reversal brought upon by Sen. Obama's "A more perfect union" speech.  This clearly proves that the YouTube sermon did "damage" Sen. Obama (I use the word "damage" loosely here ~ the damage appears to be ongoing, and has not been fully realized yet.  Bleeding would be a better word!).  Finally, we can also see that Sen. Obama has been unable to stop the bleeding with his speech.

Qu 1.b:  If the YouTube Sermons damaged Sen. Obama, why does it not show up on the Obama/Clinton matchups ?
I was puzzled by the answer to this, which is why I refrained from commenting on this in earlier diaries.  However, the evidence is now overwhelming: The YouTube sermons, or something else "damaged" Sen. Clinton even more than the damage sustained by Sen. Obama.  You can see this clearly in the charts for Sen. Clinton presented in the next section.  Unlike the "damage" sustained by Sen. Obama (wherein, the damage is ongoing, and is more akin to bleeding than to instantaneous damage), the damage sustained by Sen. Clinton was immediate.  Perhaps people thought she was behind it ?  Perhaps people blamed her for not defending Sen. Obama ?  Also, Sen. Clinton appears to have weathered that damage, if today's data point is any indication.  As they say, the next few days will be interesting (the next few days are always interesting).

(2) What drives "Hillary hatred" ?
Hillary hatred is unique in that it is very difficult to understand the underlying reasons for this.  Consider her (like her-dislike her) and her (love her-hate her) charts depicted below.


It is clear from this chart that Hillary hatred subsided substantially when Sen. Obama appeared to have locked down the Democratic nomination (i.e., in the Feb time scale), and flared up again when it became apparent that she was fightin on to the TX/OH primaries.  Prior to the February, Hillary was hated by 33% of the overall population.  The chart does not show this, but the underlying reason for the apparent decrease in Hillary hatred is that about half of all Hillary haters (about 17% of the total population) went from hating Hillary to merely disliking her when it appeared that she was out of the race.

Thus, it is safe to conclude that about half of the "Hillary-hatred" is generated by an intense desire to see her lose, and not to any logical reason (examples of logical reasons: she is a liar, she cares for herself etc. etc.)

Now, consider the second example: the dates corresponding to the release of the "YouTube sermons", and Sen. Obama's speech are also marked in Sen. Clinton's charts.  Notice the obvious: both events result in a marked increase in "Hillary hatred".  In fact, the short-term loss for Sen. Clinton was more than the short-term loss for Sen. Obama, both as a result of the YouTube sermons, and also as a result of Sen. Obama's speech.  I consider this as another example of irrational Hillary hatred.

And now, consider the last example.  These past few days, it has become clear that Sen. Clinton "misspoke" about sniper fire in Tuzla.  This has been caricatured as proof that she is a liar ~ you would normally expect Hillary hatred to increase.  Now notice the significant increase in her (love her-hate her) numbers for today (I try to avoid commenting on data points from a single day, but in this case, the increase is fairly significant).  Of course, it is only natural that Hillary hatred subsides when apparent bad news about Sen. Clinton makes the headlines ~ it makes as much sense as other facets of Hillary hatred I discussed above.

It is my opinion that Sen. Clintons (love her - hate her) chart is oscillating between monster (levels < -10%)  and "just another politician" levels for no logical reason.  If anyone has any insight into what is driving these numbers, I would sure love to hear them.

PS:  I used Red for Sen. Clinton so as to conform the claim by Sen. Obama's supporters that she is tryign to destroy the democratic party.  I am, in fact, supporting Sen. Clinton in this particular race.  

As always, comments are welcome.

Tags: hatred, Hillary, obama, polls (all tags)

Comments

31 Comments

Always love your stuff, thanks!

These graphs are consistent with what we hear on this site from the Obama supporters.  Anytime things are rough for Obama, or picking up for Clinton, the causal factor is Clinton's underhandedness.

by lombard 2008-03-25 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Always love your stuff, thanks!

Thank you for the complement!

I am not allowed to publish or discuuss my "official" work, so this is my way of strutting.  You know...big ego and all =)

by SevenStrings 2008-03-25 02:05PM | 0 recs
I think there are many factors re the level

of opposition/Hillary Hatred to Senator Clinton.

Here are a few key ones: sexism, she opposes Barack Obama (anyone who does has been demonized by a few of his more vociferous supporters, her supporrt for the Iraq war (AUMF and after), the Republicans spent 10 years in the 90s and many years agerward demonizing her, to some, she represents the DLC and old politics.

A similar list could be made about Obama, with different factors.

There is Hillary Hatred and there is Obama Hatred.

Both are wrong.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are moderate Democrats and decent people.  Neither is a "monster" or anti-American.

The viciousness of this campaign on both sides is not a godo thing.

Support your candidate, but remember, one will win and we need to beat John McCain.

I will vote for the nominee fo the Democratic Party.  

by TomP 2008-03-25 02:59PM | 0 recs
Re: I think there are many factors re the level

but aren't i still waiting for godo?  

by crazyshirley2100 2008-03-25 03:13PM | 0 recs
LOL!!!

My typos are legendary!!!

by TomP 2008-03-25 03:22PM | 0 recs
Re: LOL!!!

I can easily see several forms of Hillary and Obama hatred being justified.

For instance, if you believe in "right to life", and think that human life is sacrosant...then Hillary hatred CAN Be a perfectly rational outcome.

If you believe that Sen. Clinton = AUMF = 4000 dead soldiers, and 200,000 dead Iraqi civilians, then Hillary hatred is justified (indeed, it is the only rational outcome).

If you believe that Sen. Obama's campaign has been race baiting, then Obama hatred is justified.

etc.

etc.

by SevenStrings 2008-03-25 03:30PM | 0 recs
hatred being justified

But that kind of hatred does not swing wildly up and down with the news cycle.

by itsthemedia 2008-03-25 03:58PM | 0 recs
Exactly...

those forms of hatred would be rational.

Therefore they do not swing wildly.

by SevenStrings 2008-03-25 04:00PM | 0 recs
Hillary is Huckabee

What is the purpose of this diary, other then to bolster your ego???
Polls mean NOTHING. Who actually tells a polster when they call the truth??

And how could their answers be verified??

They can't, so the real purpose of this diary is so you can have your my pretty pony gang respond with See how persecuted we are!

Just more of the Victimhood game.

by munodi 2008-03-25 03:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary is Huckabee

Polls mean nothing?

Last I checked, people spend millions of dollars on polling data. So it sure does mean something to someone.

Oh, also, you response was unnecessarily mean. Though I did like the term 'pretty pony gang'.

by LandStander 2008-03-25 03:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary is Huckabee

What does it mean "pretty pony gang" ?

I did not understand most of that post, actually (other than he did not like my diary =)

by SevenStrings 2008-03-25 03:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary is Huckabee

I misread - it is "My Little Pony Gang" - like the toys. If there is some deeper meaning it was lost on me.

by LandStander 2008-03-25 03:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary is Huckabee

The my pretty pony gang are Clinton supporters who refuse to see or acknowledge truth or facts, do they escape into my pretty pony land, where everyone gets a unicorn and rainbows taste like lollipops, and Hillary is perfect and can do no wrong.

by munodi 2008-03-25 03:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary is Huckabee

Hmmm..

Funny, I don't feel persecuted.

And I was trying to be analytical, and sticking to numbers ("truth and facts").  I got the impression that YOU were the one who went on a rant.

Sometimes the thief scolds the policeman (that is from the Arabian nights!!)

by SevenStrings 2008-03-25 03:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary is Huckabee

What is My little Pony Gang ?

I must be the worst father in the world !!

by SevenStrings 2008-03-25 05:42PM | 0 recs
A tip jar..

because people say I should have one up!!

by SevenStrings 2008-03-25 02:02PM | 0 recs
Re: A tip jar..
Some mojo for an interesting post!
Why do I imagine this diary is about to EXPLODE within the hour? ;)
by LandStander 2008-03-25 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: A tip jar..

> Why do I imagine this diary is about to EXPLODE within the hour?

Umm, because it takes about an hour for the "cavalry" to arrive from Kos? Just guessing.

by itsthemedia 2008-03-25 03:15PM | 0 recs
Re: &quot;Hillary Hatred&quot;

I believe it is simply that the Wright scandal gets generalized to disgust with all Democrats. Elliot Spitzer's scandal also hit us. Now the indictment of the Mayor of Detroit, Kwame Kilpatrick, adds to the burden. Many people simply look at the Democratic Party as a whole, and feel "birds of a feather flock together."

The scandals that hit each of us impact all Democrats. making us look bad. I think that if polls were being taken about other highly visible Democrats there might be a similar dip.

There is crazy Hillary Hatred, don't get me wrong, I know that in my bones. I used to open the constituent mail in her Senate district office, and saw some of the most insane, blistering hate mail you can imagine, along with death threats (referred to the FBI). There is a very crazy bunch out there.

by 07rescue 2008-03-25 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: &quot;Hillary Hatred&quot;

How would you explain the crazy oscillations in the Hillary hatred prior to all these scandals ?

I get your point about the crazy Hillary hatred..that was a rhetorical question =)

by SevenStrings 2008-03-25 02:14PM | 0 recs
Re: &quot;Hillary Hatred&quot;

"How would you explain the crazy oscillations in the Hillary hatred prior to all these scandals ?"

Honestly, no idea. I do not notice all the things that people react to about her, because I have met her and seen her in action over years and  I have a trust in her that defies all the bizarre trashing of her.

I hear things she says and does the way you hear a loved friend, with lots of space for imperfections. The same things that people on the blog revile her for make me just smile at her foibles, or in this primary situation, worry for her well being.

I know, for example, how incredibly brave she is to continue to defy all the death threats she gets to appear in public and go ahead with all the dangers of this campaign, and I know she cannot talk about the everyday risks she takes, so if she boasts a little about a Bosnia trip I feel like the boast actually gives people some small idea of how brave she actually is, so it brings her closer to truth, not farther away from it. In an ironic way, she is telling more of the truth, not less of it.

I understand that to people who do not trust her it enters their narrative in a negative fashion, I'm just surprised at some of the cruelty of their condemnation, it seems inhumane.

I don't notice when the color of a pantsuit or a facial expression or turn of phrase that provides fodder for bizarre projections and crazy interpretations for those who hate her comes up,  so I am not the best choice of candidate for someone who can track what effect these things have on her favorability ratings.

But thanks for your efforts to make sense of it all. No insight here.

by 07rescue 2008-03-25 03:47PM | 0 recs
Hillary hatred

is the crowning achievement of the right wing smear machine, exported (incredibly enough) from Arkansas.  It began as local disgust with Bill Clinton, traitor to his station because he went off to Yale and Oxford and came back too big for his britches as a dope smoking draft dodger.  On top of that, he married a snooty Yankee girl hippie from Wellesley (!) who tried to bring her Eastern librul mindset to the good, simple folk of Arkansas.  As Matt Taibbi (Rolling Stone) said, the entire parcel of Summer of Love flower power baggage was attached to two people who really never embodied it to begin with.

You can read about all of it, and how Richard Mellon Scaife created the Arkansas Project through the vehicle of American Spectator Magazine in the late 80's and early 90's in either Bill or Hillary's autobiographies.  For a better take from an insider's perspective, read David Brock's book Blinded by the Right.

The attack machine succeeded in permanently tarnishing the Clintons, doubtless beyond it's wildest dreams.  You know this when you hear Democrats mouthing right wing lies and smear about Hillary to this day.  The whole country seems to have bought into the lies and misrepresentation remarkably easily.

by jarhead5536 2008-03-25 02:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary hatred

Strongly agree. The number of times Vince Foster has been mentioned on MyDD in recent months - for one example - is depressing.

by itsthemedia 2008-03-25 04:07PM | 0 recs
I think it is easier to hate women

and I have no explanation for that either. If anyone knows why, please let me know.

by ellend818 2008-03-25 02:30PM | 0 recs
Re: I think it is easier to hate women

We cannot test your hypothesis ~ there is no male version of Hillary that we can compare her to.

But I suspect your hypothesis may explain some portion of the Hillary hatred.

by SevenStrings 2008-03-25 02:34PM | 0 recs
Re: I'd be happy to let you know...

Got a couple of years?  Room for a library?

For the same reason that:
In America, three million women are physically abused by their husband or boyfriend per year.
In 2000, intimate partner homicides accounted for 33.5 percent of the murders of women and less than four percent of the murders of men.
Homicide is the leading cause of death overall for pregnant women.
http://www.endabuse.org/resources/facts

Watch the news?  Every day there are new murders of women, by strangers, sexual predators, husbands. Our government, corporations, institutions and media are owned and run by men. Why?

Misogyny.  The world's oldest prejudice, it cuts across race, religion, class.
We hate women, hate them, fear them, they makes us sick with anger at them, we want to kill them.  That's why, especially if they're uppity.

Not much discussion of it here, though, or, umm, say, on MSNBC, or, erm, say, out of Obama's mouth, that uplifting healer of the oppressed.

It's such a goddam disgrace, I could hop up and down.
We are the fucking majority!!!!
There's never been a woman president, you say?
Must be cuz there's never been a woman as qualified as George Bush.   Or Barack.

Well, we had our little moment in the 70's, we get to check off "Ms." on questionnaires.  Now iron my shirts.
And let's all get some Hillary toilet paper to wipe our asses with, love seeing that in MyDD sidebar ads.  

by oh puhleeze 2008-03-25 04:09PM | 0 recs
Re: I'd be happy to let you know...

You should diary this !!

by SevenStrings 2008-03-25 05:40PM | 0 recs
Interesting diary

Recommended, because this diary offers some original analysis that I have not seen before. Thanks SevenStrings, for trying to elevate the discusion instead of posting the umpteenth hit diary of the day.

Clinton's numbers seem to oscillate so wildly in your second set of graphs that it might be hard to correlate the swings to any particular news events. I do think you are onto something with the idea that bad feelings about her are magnified when she is perceived as having a chance to win. Most Obama Democrats don't hate her forever, they just want her to go away, and the intensity of their antipathy increases when she is threatening to win.

It would be interesting to see a partisan breakdown of the Hillary Hate graph. You might see much different trends among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

by itsthemedia 2008-03-25 03:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Interesting diary

"Clinton's numbers seem to oscillate so wildly in your second set of graphs that it might be hard to correlate the swings to any particular news events."

Yes, that is what has puzzled me for quite some time.  I have fitted variuos models to it, and the best fit comes from a series of sinusoidals.

As they say...it is either FNAR or FNGR

(for no apparent reason, or for no good reason)!!

by SevenStrings 2008-03-25 03:58PM | 0 recs
&quot;Hillary Hatred&quot;

I suspect the answer lies in your graphs and in Newtons 3rd law (for every action....). You are on the right track with the emotions associated with bad or good news.

by Myleftfoot 2008-03-25 04:06PM | 0 recs
Re: &quot;Hillary Hatred&quot;

Never thought I would hear that :)

Actually, the model I had in mind was a pendulum ...simple harmonic motion and all.

by SevenStrings 2008-03-25 05:38PM | 0 recs

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