This Spreadsheet Continues To Impress
by Setrak, Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 12:32:00 PM EST
The spreadsheet that was "accidentally" sent out on February 7th by the Obama campaign continues to illustrate the scenario underway. My previous entry on this spreadsheet can be found below;
Read over the post and the spreadsheet.
This spreadsheet called Texas a month before it happened. Now it certainly looks like it is calling Wyoming exact within a couple of points. Only two times did the poll underestimate Clinton's strength, and those two times occured in two of the March 4th states. Rhode Island and Ohio, which were considered Clinton strongholds, by only 3 points. Compare that to the margin all across the spreadsheet that underestimated Obama's strength.
After Wyoming comes Mississippi, which predicts a 24% spread in Obama's favor. Given the demographics and his past performances in the South, with exception to Tennesse, I think this is certainly possible.
He'll be taking a 2 delegate advantage out of Wyoming, and 3 of 5 superdelegates remain undecided. The other 2 already endorsed Obama. If the prediction for Mississippi holds up, he'll get 7 delegates. There are 6 super delegates in Mississippi, 2 who have endorsed Obama and 4 who are uncommitted. For Pennsylvania, the next Iowa, the prediction is a 5% victory for Clinton. This would net her somewhere around the figure of 8 delegates. 9 super delegates in Pennsylvania remain uncommitted.
Before Wyoming, the RCP overall delegate count was as follows;
1581-1460, Obama with 121 over Clinton. Amongst pledged delegates it's 1371-1218, Obama with 151 over Clinton. Her lead amongst super delegates is now roughly 30, down from over 90.
The popular vote stands at 13,000,655 for Obama to 12,411,705 for Clinton. Florida(penalty), Michigan(penalty), Washington(Obama landslide, margin of victory at 37%, caucus), Nevada(Clinton victory at 5%, caucus), Iowa(Obama victory at 8%, caucus) and Maine(Obama victory at 19%, caucus) are not included in the popular vote count. I don't think Wyoming will be either.
All in all, things bode well for Senator Obama. That's reality.