This Spreadsheet Continues To Impress

The spreadsheet that was "accidentally" sent out on February 7th by the Obama campaign continues to illustrate the scenario underway.  My previous entry on this spreadsheet can be found below;

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/5/20392 3/2712#readmore

Read over the post and the spreadsheet.

This spreadsheet called Texas a month before it happened.  Now it certainly looks like it is calling Wyoming exact within a couple of points.   Only two times did the poll underestimate Clinton's strength, and those two times occured in two of the March 4th states.  Rhode Island and Ohio, which were considered Clinton strongholds, by only 3 points.  Compare that to the margin all across the spreadsheet that underestimated Obama's strength.
After Wyoming comes Mississippi, which predicts a 24% spread in Obama's favor.  Given the demographics and his past performances in the South, with exception to Tennesse, I think this is certainly possible.

He'll be taking a 2 delegate advantage out of Wyoming, and 3 of 5 superdelegates remain undecided.  The other 2 already endorsed Obama.   If the prediction for Mississippi holds up, he'll get 7 delegates.   There are 6 super delegates in Mississippi, 2 who have endorsed Obama and 4 who are uncommitted.  For Pennsylvania, the next Iowa, the prediction is a 5% victory for Clinton.   This would net her somewhere around the figure of 8 delegates.  9 super delegates in Pennsylvania remain uncommitted.

Before Wyoming, the RCP overall delegate count was as follows;
1581-1460, Obama with 121 over Clinton.  Amongst pledged delegates it's 1371-1218, Obama with 151 over Clinton.  Her lead amongst super delegates is now roughly 30, down from over 90.
The popular vote stands at 13,000,655 for Obama to 12,411,705 for Clinton.  Florida(penalty), Michigan(penalty), Washington(Obama landslide, margin of victory at 37%, caucus), Nevada(Clinton victory at 5%, caucus), Iowa(Obama victory at 8%, caucus) and Maine(Obama victory at 19%, caucus) are not included in the popular vote count.  I don't think Wyoming will be either.

All in all, things bode well for Senator Obama.  That's reality.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, polls, prediction, Spreadsheet (all tags)

Comments

7 Comments

Re: This Spreadsheet Continues To Impress

I sorta get how you could argue that the MI and FL states don't have delegates, but are you also in denial that they actually voted and had votes counted in those states?  Clinton is up in the popular vote.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-03-08 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: This Spreadsheet Continues To Impress

Florida and Michigan are going to have a revote, the campaigns are just battling behind the scenes to set the terms.  Furthermore, the current popular vote from Michigan is entirely lop-sided.  Obama doesn't receive a single vote there.  It's silly to include Michigan in that count.

by Setrak 2008-03-08 12:52PM | 0 recs
Re: This Spreadsheet Continues To Impress

It says a lot that her name was only accompanied by Dennis Kucinich.   Furthermore, the notion that Obama is scared of a revote is pretty ludicrous.  Here's why.

Consider that nothing happens, Michigan and Florida don't have seated delegates at the convention.  Buh bye Michigan, buh bye Florida, say good bye to a lot of those Democratic congressmen.

Consider that the results are accepted in their current form, which is what you really really really want.  We look like children for making a rule, watching it get broken, and then decrying the penalty that everyone knew was coming and overriding it.   But FAR more importantly, Obama gets nothing out of Michigan while Clinton gets a ^$*@load of pledged delegates.  Then Florida, which will bruise his pledged-delegate lead.

Obama has a lot more reason to want a revote.   This line that's being pushed is right up there with comparing my fellow Obama supporters to brownshirts.

by Setrak 2008-03-08 01:05PM | 0 recs
Let's add IA, NV, WA, ME and WY popular

votes, if the Clinton camp wants to push the popular vote argument.

Beauty contest result in FL and a non-contest result in MI shouldn't be counted. If they hold re-votes, then we can count them in.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-03-08 01:11PM | 0 recs
Re: This Spreadsheet Continues To Impress

The spread sheet says;  bug Harold Ickes about it, it was HIS idea.  ;)

by Setrak 2008-03-08 12:52PM | 0 recs
Re: This Spreadsheet Continues To Impress

It's easy to see why Obama doesn't want a revote in MI or FL. I don't either, and not because I think it will make a difference in the delegate counts at the end of the process. It won't. Hillary cannot possibly catch up.

I don't want a revote because it's clear that Hillary is following a "burn this mutha down" campaign strategy. She will destroy the party in order to save it. I want the superdelegates to step in sooner rather than later.

Don't be surprised if we see more of that after WY and MS, because people are going to get sick of Hillary spending money from Democratic donors to do John McCain's work for him against our eventual nominee.

by alvernon 2008-03-08 12:56PM | 0 recs
Re: This Spreadsheet Continues To Impress
So far your contention "because people are going to get sick of Hillary spending money from Democratic donors to do John McCain's work for him against our eventual nominee." is not  supported.
The most recent poll on the subject last week showed that  2/3rds of the Democrats want the
race to continue. Super  Delegates for the most part have "stepped in" although some are still neutral so if there were to be a big push toward Obam it is meaningless until the convention because they have the option to switch again.
by coolofthenight 2008-03-09 12:56PM | 0 recs

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