• comment on a post 2010-2011 Redistricting Project over 5 years ago

    Once again (see comment about CA above), a party's excess PVI in a district is (PVI-15) where a party has a PVI of more than +15 in a district.

    Illinois' Dem Congressional districts have excess PVI of +84, which is DOUBLE the total GOP PVI of +42.  Obviously a lot of the excess PVI is up around Chicago, and the GOP-leaning districts are downstate, but in theory, you could use the excess Dem PVI to turn all those GOP-leaning districts into D+4 districts, without putting any Dems at risk of losing their seats.

  • on a comment on 2010-2011 Redistricting Project over 5 years ago

    Speaking as an insider (not that any of this is secret), the Census isn't doing anything this time that could be used to correct an undercount in this manner, and already has its hands full with problems such as those with the handheld devices it was going to use in the nonresponse followup part of the Census.

    At this point, it's totally unrealistic to expect any significant operational changes or add-ons to the 2010 Census.  (Including that otherwise sensible idea about having the Census register voters.  Sorry.)  They'll have their hands full just doing what they're supposed to do as of now.

  • on a comment on 2010-2011 Redistricting Project over 5 years ago

    This Wikipedia page gives the (pre-election) PVIs of all the Congressional districts, so it's a useful tool, and should be even more so once it's updated.

    California's an instructive example of what could be done.  Districts with a PVI of +10 or more are pretty safe, and once you get past +15, you're all but immune from challenges.

    So let's define the 'excess PVI' of a district as (PVI-15) if it's got a PVI > 15, and zero otherwise.  That's a crude measure of how many votes of one side or the other are being wasted on ultra-safe districts.

    We can break that into excess Dem PVI and excess GOP PVI in the manner you'd expect: if it's >D+15, it's excess Dem, and if it's >R+15, it's excess GOP.

    In California, the sum of the excess Dem PVI is +170.  The sum of the excess GOP PVI is +1.  We're wasting a lot of PVI, and they're not.

    What makes it even more crazy is that the sum of all the GOP PVI in California - excess or not! - is only +163.  In other words, there's enough excess Dem PVI in California to redistrict so that there are NO GOP-leaning districts in the state, without putting a single Dem at greater risk of losing.  

    We could keep every Dem in a district with PVI < D+15 in a district with the same PVI, and turn every R-leaning district into a neutral district by reducing the PVI on ultra-safe Dem districts down to D+15.

  • on a comment on "There Is No Ground Game" over 5 years ago

    Not saying he's really that far ahead, but it would be hard for the Q-poll sample to have Obama +14 there if he wasn't actually up by 8 or more.

    And if Obama's +8 in Ohio now, he'll win in 12 days.

  • I haven't been paying attention to the House side this year, unlike the last 2 cycles.  But I think you've got the right idea, and I'm ready and willing to make some online contributions if some good recommendations come down.

  • Campaigning, as Bush might say, is hard work, and even a much younger person might get a bit worn out over time.

    But by all accounts, the Presidency isn't much easier.  Whether it's the toll of the Presidential campaign that has made him less lucid, or other health factors that have done so (and I agree that he IS distinctly less clear and lucid than he was two years ago), then he's just not healthy enough to be President.

    And putting a ditzy, sexy babe in the Oval Office might be a funny movie premise, but it would be pretty awful in real life.

  • comment on a post What's Going On In Georgia? over 5 years ago

    Just to provide a standard of comparison.  Just over 3.2 million voted in the Senate race that year.

  • comment on a post Zogby polling opens wide for Obama over 5 years ago

    "The Sunday before the election the dam burst," Zogby said of the 1980 tilt. "That's when voters determined they were comfortable with Reagan."

    And that showed up in the polls, too - as far as anyone knew on Nov. 1, 1980, the election was going to come down to turnout.

    Maybe there's another dam waiting to be burst that would turn this election into a popular-vote landslide, but Obama's already got the sort of edge in the polls that Reagan didn't have until a day or two before the 1980 election.

  • comment on a post McCain's Rage Becoming A Problem? over 5 years ago

    I deeply despise celebs who play the "Do you know who I am?" card, and expect those around them to do their bidding.

    This is a democracy, dammit.  If you want to be royalty, move to the Grand Caymans or whatever, and don't bother the rest of us.

  • on a comment on Double Digits In Virginia? over 5 years ago

    :rimshot:

    I'm a Marylander at present, but I've lived most of my life so far in Virginia, and still know it pretty well.

    But this is just too big to wrap my mind around: the Dem candidate for President, ahead by double digits in Virginia, this close to Election Day!

    If Obama is half as good in planning his Presidency as he was in planning his campaign, it'll be a very good eight years.  His team has been freakin' brilliant.

  • comment on a post More On Those Quinnipiac University Polls over 5 years ago

    I'll bet my $2 against your $1 that PA's going Dem, Todd.

    Or whatever multiple of that bet you care to wager.

  • comment on a post How easy we forget over 5 years ago

    Some Dem 527 should be using the power of ridicule on this frame.  McCain, the guy who's such a maverick, he's unafraid to repeatedly take himself on.

    Given the number of McCain flipflops over the past few years, that should be easy.  

    Clip 1A: what McCain used to say about the Bush tax cuts.  Narrator, cheerfully: But McCain wasn't afraid to stand tall against this liberal position. Clip 1B: what he says about them now.  

    Do the same thing with a couple of other issues, and you've got yourself a nice 30-second spot, that has people laughing at the idea of McCain as maverick, and gives it a whole new meaning.

  • Just laid $50 each on Musgrove and Begich.  And Hagans.

  • on a comment on McCain Struggling in Arizona over 5 years ago

    I was rating the various pollsters for awhile during primary season.  One of the surprises was just how badly M-D sucked.  (I don't have my notes handy, but it wasn't just SC.)  

    I'd be suspicious of this one anyway, since this is the first poll of NM in eons that's shown Obama behind in that state.  But that, combined with the unusual closeness of AZ, plus my lingering doubts about them from primary season, add up to: wait for confirmation.

    One thing to remember is that even Barry Goldwater managed to win AZ as his home state, when he was losing the entire rest of the country outside of the Deep South.  It's hard to see McCain doing worse in AZ in 2008 than Barry did in 1964.

  • comment on a post The AP Had It Right The First Time over 5 years ago

    You've heard about the guy proposing that everyone at the Dem Convention next week be given nine keyrings with keys on them, supposedly the keys to McCain's houses.  Not a half bad idea, actually.

    Another one: assuming it's possible to buy a shitload of Monopoly houses (think of the fat guy buying marbles at the end of Animal House), we scatter tons of them on the ground wherever McCain is due to show up, starting with the approaches to the GOP Convention next week in Minneapolis.

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