Mason Dixon New Hampshire Poll

Online: Full results, http://www.mcclatchydc.com

Results for Democrats

Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York had 26 percent, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois had 21 percent, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards had 18 percent and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico had 9 percent. Sen. Joe Biden had 6 percent, former Vice President Al Gore had 2 percent and the other candidates had 1 percent or less.

Trendlines:

Poll Date Sample Clinton Edwards Obama Richardson Spread
RCP Average 05/04 - 06/07 - 33.2 17.2 20.4 9.0 Clinton +12.8

Mason-Dixon 06/04 - 06/07 na 26 18 21 9 Clinton +5.0

Franklin Pierce 06/04 - 06/04 424 LV 38 13 16 8 Clinton +22.0

American Res. Group 05/24 - 05/27 600 LV 34 18 15 9 Clinton +16.0

Zogby 05/15 - 05/16 503 LV 28 15 26 10 Clinton +2.0

SurveyUSA 05/04 - 05/06 589 LV 40 22 24 -- Clinton +16.0

Poll Methodology

Mason-Dixon Polling and Research conducted the polls Monday through Thursday, surveying 411 likely voters in the Democratic primary and 361 likely voters in the Republican primary. The Democratic results had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

My Analysis

Clinton's numbers have come down from the previous polls, but she is still the one to beat.  Obama and Edwards are showing that they still can catch up to Hillary if they work at it. Richardson is also showing signs that he is still in it.

Tags: 2008 Presidential Polls, Mason Dixon, New Hampshire, Real Clear Politics (all tags)

Comments

8 Comments

Re: Mason Dixon New Hampshire Poll

It is a three way race in New Hampshire, that is what the polls have shown all along.  Whoever wins Iowa will win New Hampshire, and he (or she) who wins New Hampshire will be the nominee.

by Vox Populi 2007-06-11 09:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Mason Dixon New Hampshire Poll

It is currently a clear Clinton lead, which is what the polls have shown.   That does not mean that it will stay that way indefinitely, but it could.  

With Clinton having strong leads in NH, FL, and NV and a good-sized lead in SC, any Iowa showing would not make a big difference.  However, in IA she appears to be coming on strong as well.  

by georgep 2007-06-11 10:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Mason Dixon New Hampshire Poll

Whomever comes in third in Iowa is out of the race.  A third place finish will be portrayed as much bigger than a win.

by Vox Populi 2007-06-11 10:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Mason Dixon New Hampshire Poll

At this point, I think the exception to this would be Hillary Clinton.  Her national lead and lead in other states could conceivably get her past a poor showing in Iowa.  Now if she finished fourth... well, not even all her money, name recognition, and consultants could save ya from that.

by maddogg 2007-06-11 10:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Mason Dixon New Hampshire Poll

It is a three way race in New Hampshire, that is what the polls have shown all along.  Whoever wins Iowa will win New Hampshire, and he (or she) who wins New Hampshire will be the nominee

What polls have you been reading?

by world dictator 2007-06-11 02:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Mason Dixon New Hampshire Poll

Can't be polls from THIS country, that's for sure:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democrat ic_primary-194.html#polls

CNN/WMUR 06/06 - 06/10 309 LV 36 12 22 10 Clinton +14.0
Mason-Dixon 06/04 - 06/07 na 26 18 21 9 Clinton +5.0
Franklin Pierce 06/04 - 06/04 424 LV 38 13 16 8 Clinton +22.0
American Res. Group 05/24 - 05/27 600 LV 34 18 15 9 Clinton +16.0
Zogby 05/15 - 05/16 503 LV 28 15 26 10 Clinton +2.0
SurveyUSA 05/04 - 05/06 589 LV 40 22 24 -- Clinton +16.0
American Res. Group 04/26 - 04/29 600 LV 37 26 14 3 Clinton +11.0
Zogby 04/03 - 04/03 LV 29 23 23 2 Clinton +6.0
CNN/WMUR 03/27 - 04/02 339 LV 27 21 20 4 Clinton +6.0
American Res. Group 03/19 - 03/22 600 LV 37 20 23 2 Clinton +14.0
Franklin Pierce 03/07 - 03/11 401 LV 32 16 25 3 Clinton +7.0
Suffolk 02/24 - 02/28 212 LV 28 17 26 2 Clinton +2.0
Zogby 02/07 - 02/08 502 LV 27 13 23 3 Clinton +4.0
CNN/WMUR 02/01 - 02/05 353 LV 35 16 21 1 Clinton +14.0
American Res. Group 01/31 - 02/01 600 LV 39 13 19 2 Clinton +20.0
SurveyUSA 01/26 - 01/28 582 LV 40 23 25 -- Clinton +15.0

That is SOME three-way race there.  

Yet, in Iowa Clinton is clearly in third, trailing badly, at this point.  LEt's look at polling data for verification:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus -208.html#polls

American Res. Group 05/23 - 05/26 600 LV 25 31 11 8 Clinton +6.0
Strategic Vision (R) 05/18 - 05/20 600 LV 29 16 24 9 Edwards +5.0
Research 2000 05/14 - 05/16 400 LV 26 28 22 7 Clinton +2.0
Des Moines Register 05/12 - 05/16 400 LV 29 21 23 10 Edwards +6.0
Zogby 05/14 - 05/15 511 LV 26 24 22 6 Edwards +2.0
American Res. Group 04/27 - 04/30 600 LV 27 23 19 5 Edwards +4.0
Strategic Vision (R) 03/30 - 04/01 600 LV 27 19 20 4 Edwards +7.0
Univ. of Iowa 03/19 - 03/31 298 LV 34 29 19 -- Edwards +5.0
Zogby 03/26 - 03/26 506 LV 27 25 23 3 Edwards +2.0
American Res. Group 03/19 - 03/22 600 LV 33 34 16 1 Clinton +1.0
Strategic Vision (R) 02/16 - 02/18 600 LV 24 18 18 3 Edwards +6.0
Zogby 02/07 - 02/09 500 LV 24 24 18 -- Tie
American Res. Group 01/29 - 02/01 600 LV 18 35 14 1 Clinton +17.0

Is it just me, or are the posts from Hillary-haters and -detractors becoming less and less logical and more and more hysterical, the closer we get to fall?

by georgep 2007-06-12 06:44AM | 0 recs
Been Diaried

You may want to delete this simply because it's already been diaried on the front page.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/6/8/17124 7/1067

by maddogg 2007-06-11 10:31AM | 0 recs
Al Gore wasn't polled on; His #s were volunteered

ones.


2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Poll finds Romney with big lead in New Hampshire

By Steven Thomma

2 percent of voters volunteered that they'd support former Vice President Al Gore.


The pdf file confirms that the 2% (I knew there was something fishy about this number) for Gore were volunteered numbers.

Could you please mention this facts in your diary (and other places where you post this poll info)? Thanks!

by NuevoLiberal 2007-06-11 10:42AM | 0 recs

Diaries

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