New Pew 2008 Poll

A new Pew poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton still the frontrunner for the 2008 Democratic nomination followed by a strong second by Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). Rudy Giuliani is slightly ahead of  Sen. John McCain in the GOP race with a surprising strong third place showing by Conleezza Rice.

http://robwire.com/?q=node/1432

Democrats

Clinton 39
Obama 23
Edwards 10
Gore 10
Kerry 7
Biden 2
Richardson 1
Feingold 1

GOP

Giuliani 28
McCain 26
Rice 20
Romney 7
Gingrich 6
Frist 4
Brownback 1

"Though some of this year's congressional elections are not yet decided, attention is already beginning to shift to the 2008 presidential race. Sen. Barack Obama has emerged as the leading rival to Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party's nomination.

Among registered Democrats, Sen. Clinton continues to lead by a wide margin ­ 39% of party voters back her, compared with 23% for Obama. But the margin narrows among independent voters; 27% say they would like to see Clinton win the Democratic nomination, while 21% favor Obama.

Among the Republican contenders, Sen. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani both continue to attract broad support. Among registered Republicans, the two run neck-and-neck (27% for Giuliani, 26% for McCain), and both receive the support of roughly three-in-ten independents as well.

The lists of potential presidential nominees for both parties mostly consist of veteran politicians, but the public wants more people from different walks of life to compete for high political office. About six-in-ten Americans (57%) say they would like to see more non-politicians run for high office, compared with 33% who think it is important to have experienced politicians running for office. Comparable percentages of independents (59%), Democrats (59%) and Republicans (56%) say it would be good for political outsiders to run for high office. "

Tags: 2008, poll, Presidential (all tags)

Comments

18 Comments

Meaningless

This kind of polling is absolutely meaningless. It's about name recognition.

by cmpnwtr 2006-11-18 08:30AM | 0 recs
Right.

Remember those 2003 polls showing Lieberman leading the pack of the Democratic Prez candidates?

It was because he was the only name they've heard of.

by HellofaSandwich 2006-11-18 01:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Right.

By that logic, John Edwards should have as much name ID now as Lieberman did then, and I would expect that Gore and Kerry are better known than either of them.  So that makes five candidate in this poll (assuming Obama makes the standard, which I'm actually not sure of) that are broadly well known enough to be credible national candidates.  Why then isn't the ranking of those five significant?

by Ryan Anderson 2006-11-18 03:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Meaningless

It's not entirely meaningless, actually.  It's absurd to think that in a poll that inclues Al Gore, John Kerry and John Edwards that people are voting for Clinton because she's the only one they recognize.  Certaintly the numbers for people like Richardson and Feingold are hurt by their relatively low profile on the national stage, but there's more at work than just name ID.

by Ryan Anderson 2006-11-18 03:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Meaningless

It is meaningful only when compared with name recognition. For instance, Kerry's name recognition would be very high and he only has 7% - that is meaningful. But how many people know enough to say much about Biden or Richardson (or Feingold, but he isn't running)? Other factors, like how many people actually believe Gore is running, could have an impact. With Feingold out, I would probably say none of the above. Also look to see who emerges who may not be on the list at all.

by liberal atheist 2006-11-20 06:26AM | 0 recs
2002

Quinnipiac, Nov. 2002:

2. Now I'm going to name eight Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all eight names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. . . . .

Gore                      32%
(H) Clinton               22  
Daschle                   11  
Lieberman                  8  
Kerry                      8  
Gephardt                   8  
Edwards                    4  
Dean                       -  
DK/NA                      8  

by Adam B 2006-11-18 03:55PM | 0 recs
Re: New Pew 2008 Poll

The 2008 race is moving fast. With most major candidates planning to make their announcements by year end the field will firm up faster which affects fundrasing etc.

by robliberal 2006-11-18 08:40AM | 0 recs
I think Gore is at about 13-15% not 10%

I think Gore is at about 13-15% not 10% or under as seen in some recent post-Obama national polls.

It just doesn't add up for me, and I have been tracking these polls for months now.

Gore's matchup numbers vs McCain and Giuliani aren't too bad. He is only 3-7 points behind (with margin of error around 3%) , which can be easily overcome:



John McCain (R)      48%
Al Gore (D)     41%

Some Other Candidate     7%
Not Sure     3%

Rudy Giuliani (R)      47%
Al Gore (D)     44%

Some Other Candidate     5%
Not Sure     4%
Rasmussen

Please see my diary 2008 Poll digest: Nov 15, 2006 which has several state polls (where Gore is generally drawing in the 16-28% range for the primary) as well as recent national polls. For example, in WI, he's within 6 points of Hillary (the poll, which was taken before Russ Feingold withdrew, asked the question both with and without Russ Feingold)


WI (11/06/06 poll) (without Feingold)

Hillary Clinton 32%
Al Gore 28%

John Edwards 12%
Barack Obama 9%

Thanks.

by NuevoLiberal 2006-11-18 08:56AM | 0 recs
Re: I think Gore is at about 13-15% not 10%

If you track the different polls I guess they tend to show Gore slightly higher but it would appear that Obama takes votes from all the major candidates rather than primarily from HRC as might have been expected.

http://www.pollingreport.com/WH08dem.htm

There is some evidence to suggest that the female vote is going overwhelmingly to Hillary and that male vote fluctuates more. Also worth noting that the top 4 are roughly equal on 2nd preferences according to one of the recent polls.

HRC is a very strong candidate and is highly likely to win the nomination. If Gore or indeed Obama or Edwards want to beat her, they really need to get their act together very quickly otherwise it will be all over.

by kundalini 2006-11-18 12:03PM | 0 recs
Re: I think Gore is at about 13-15% not 10%

I think Obama hurts Edwards and Bayh the most. It blocks them from getting close enough to Clinton to make it a race. Gore would be able to quickly jump past Obama if he got in the race but that is not yet known.

by robliberal 2006-11-18 12:05PM | 0 recs
Re: New Pew 2008 Poll

I think without Obama inclued Gore would be much stronger.

by robliberal 2006-11-18 09:00AM | 0 recs
Re: New Pew 2008 Poll

Correct. Without Obama, Gore was polling 15-19% to HRC's 30-35% but second preferences seem to be about equal.

http://www.pollingreport.com/WH08dem.htm

by kundalini 2006-11-18 12:08PM | 0 recs
Re: New Pew 2008 Poll

The polls are 100% meaningless in 2002 no one expected John Kerry to be the Nomaniee of the democratic party and no one expected it to be Bill Clinton in 1990. So whoever is at the top of the polls now is probably the least likely to get nominated.  

by orin76 2006-11-18 12:10PM | 0 recs
Re: New Pew 2008 Poll

It may not indicate who will be the nominee but it has a serious effect on who will be candidates. Warner and Feingold could not find a way to do it and others will make their decisions over the holidays.

by robliberal 2006-11-18 01:23PM | 0 recs
Re: New Pew 2008 Poll

Actually a lot of people saw Clinton coming in 1990 and it's definitly an overstatement to say nobody saw Kerry coming in 2002.  Kerry was widely considered one of the top contenders.

Rising as a dark horse with no money or name recognition is extremely unlikely, especially with the name recognition and fundraising capabilites of Hillary and Obama.  If there was a governor out there with the capacity of pulling off a presidential run, the media would have probably already picked up on him or her (like they did with Bill) and they would be out testing the waters by now.  Maybe Bill Richardson still has a chance, but I doubt it.

Bottom line calling these polls 100% meaningless is nonsense.  There's a chance none of the top contenders will get the nomination, but there's a much much much better chance the nomination will go to either Clinton, Obama, Edwards, or Gore.

by blueryan 2006-11-18 01:35PM | 0 recs
Re: New Pew 2008 Poll

As I remember Clinton was seen as a joke also rand candidate. Clinton wasn't even showing up in polls in 1990.

by orin76 2006-11-18 02:14PM | 0 recs
Re: New Pew 2008 Poll

oops nomination  

by orin76 2006-11-18 12:10PM | 0 recs
Polled registered Republicans

  Chuckle.  They don't decide who wins the primary.  The rabid conservatives who actually vote in Republican primaries do.

by cilerder86 2006-11-18 02:09PM | 0 recs

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