Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Sen. Hillary Clinton continues her lead in the AP-Ipsos poll released Saturday. She has a lead of 12 points over the nearest Democratic challenger Sen. Barack Obama. Former Sen. John Edwards finished in fourth place in the poll.

Hillary Clinton 33
Barack Obama 21
Al Gore 20
John Edwards 12

http://www.knoxnews.com/kns/politics/art icle/0,1406,KNS_356_5578614,00.html

Clinton continues to draw strong support from women who are the largest voting demographic in the traditionally Democratic base.


 On the Democratic side, Clinton, the New York senator, is drawing support from four in 10 women _ a block that accounted for 54 percent of the vote in 2004's key Democratic primaries. One in three of her supporters cite her experience, the most among Democrats.

"I think women relate more to the needs of people," said cashier Jadine Robinson, 52, of Magnolia, Miss.  

Excluding the new poll Clinton has maintained a spread of 9.5 over the rest of the Democratic field in recent polls.

CP Average    05/16 - 06/06    -    34.0    24.5    11.2    15.3    Clinton +9.5
FOX News    06/05 - 06/06    RV    36    23    12    14    Clinton +13.0
USA Today/Gallup    06/01 - 06/03    470 LV    29    30    11    17    Obama +1.0
ABC News/Wash Post    05/29 - 06/01    1205 Adults    35    23    8    17    Clinton +12.0
Rasmussen    05/29 - 05/31    738 LV    34    26    15    --    Clinton +8.0
Rasmussen    05/21 - 05/23    559 LV    35    26    14    --    Clinton +9.0
NYT/CBS News*    05/18 - 05/23    441 LV    46    24    14    --    Clinton +22.0

Tags: 2008 elections, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, bluesunbelt.com, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, Hillary Clinton, joe biden, John Edwards, Mike Gravel (all tags)

Comments

73 Comments

Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Go Hillary!!!!!!!!

Fantastic news.

by samueldem 2007-06-09 07:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

This poll is useless because it includes Al Gore.

by vamonticello 2007-06-09 08:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

No poll is useless - they all give us information, and it is up t us to interpret it.

by LandStander 2007-06-09 10:59AM | 0 recs
Lets look at that information ..

... oh, that's odd. I clicked through to the link, and there was no previous results and no MOE, so it was impossible to construct the range of the results for the four results listed or the range in the preceding poll.

by BruceMcF 2007-06-09 01:00PM | 0 recs
Anyway, here's the long term moving average.

So we can say that Hillary's slide continues, and with no other candidate sliding, that means that her lead over the other three (two declared candidates, one not a declared candidate) continues to narrow.

by BruceMcF 2007-06-09 01:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

That point continues to make no sense.  I agree that Gore is most likely not going to run, so it would be great if he weren't included for the time being, but for someone to claim that the poll is "worthless" because of the Gore inclusion is ridiculous.  We know from enough polling evidence that Clinton gains the most when Gore is taken out of a poll.  Therefore, it is obvious that her lead over Obama is actually in reality greater than the 12% shown here.  It is probably closer to 14% to 17% instead.  Thus, including Gore serves to keep Clinton's numbers down a little bit.  If you take Gore's numbers out of all polls that include them, Clinton's RCP aggregate would be well over 13%.  

Edwards continues to perform poorly, but he is probably at around 14% in this poll once you exclude Gore.  

by georgep 2007-06-09 03:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

The main point is, the tracking on the same poll with the same field and the same methodology is meaningful for changes, even if it is deceptive in levels.

Having Gore in the poll means that the very soft support from people that have been pushed to pick one of the declared candidates is reduced a bit ... if people's first pick is Gore, then whether their second pick is Senator Clinton, Barrack Obama or John Edwards, they are likely to be fairly soft support and are far more in play than those who pick one of the declared candidates without being pushed.

The diary would, however, be far more meaningful is the previous AP national democratic preference poll results were included.

by BruceMcF 2007-06-10 07:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

No surprise, here.  Who do you think will be her running mate?

by BigBoyBlue 2007-06-09 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

I think the GOP ticket could end up a strong Northeast/Southern ticket like Giuliani/Thompson or Thompson/Giuliani. That would dominate the South and will put several blue states in play in the Northeast. If that happens it could make it a closer election than 2000 and 2004.

I think Clinton would have to look for a VP that could equal the GOP ticket in terms of experience (especially national security experience) and geographical balance.

by robliberal 2007-06-09 08:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Geographical balance is over-rated. Bush and Cheney are really from the same state, Clinton and Gore were from states which bordered each other and Reagan and Bush both came from the sunbelt.

The last regionally balanced ticket to win was Carter/Mondale, and that was against the man who'd pardoned Nixon.

Particularly given how little effect Edwards appeared to have on NC in 2004 (and not because he was weak there - polls suggested he'd have won re-election), suggesting that geographical origin is weakening as a deciding factor.

by Englishlefty 2007-06-09 09:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

A popular VP choice from some states could potentially add some electoral votes such as Richardson of New Mexico, Nelson of Florida, Bredesen of Tennessee, etc. It may be a complex electoral situation in 2008 if the GOP can put some NE states in play.

by robliberal 2007-06-09 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

What NE states? The only ones which aren't safe Democratic are Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine. In Pennsylvania the Republicans don't have a serious VP candidate, neither of the Maine senators will be on the ticket because the nominee will be either an extremist or trying to cosy up to the party's extremist wing and New Hampshire's really trending against the Republicans.

In our case, NM is probably winnable even without Richardson (I assume he'd campaign as a surrogate for the nominee either way), I think what aid Bredesen might provide in Tennessee would be negated by his failing to enthuse a liberal base elsewhere and I'm just not sure Nelson has the stature or energy to deliver Florida on his own.

It seems to me that a better idea is to target issues and demographic groups. A VP who appeals especially to Hispanics, for example, puts NM into the Democratic column and would be helpful in Florida and the southwest. Or a candidate who can reach out to rural communities would be helpful in winning Iowa and would help protect Wisconsin and Minnesota. Or a candidate with a focus on workers' rights would be of benefit in the rust belt.

I just don't think that the name on the bottom of the ballot can turn a state because he happens to be registered to vote there as much as used to be the case.

by Englishlefty 2007-06-09 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

The VP choice will be complex for the Democratic ticket. Some polls have shown NJ and even CT could be in play if Guiliani is the GOP nominee. If Bloomberg runs that further complicates things as well.

by robliberal 2007-06-09 03:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

I suppose you could have a point there. However, that's only a possibility at present. The polling in a year's time might be something to base a VP pick off, but for now we're just speculating wildly. With this in mind, I'm going to predict that even if Rudy is the nominee, CT will slip out of his reach whilst NJ will do its usual trick of appearing more Republican than it really is.

On the other hand, if they are in danger, who do you pick as VP? Clinton isn't really an option - she's too powerful a figure to fit as anything but top of the ticket. Neither of the NJ senators are VP material and Corzine could be a good pick but that depends upon his health. As for CT, I guess Dodd is the only serious candidate who could put that beyond doubt, but whether he'd work as a VP pick elsewhere depends on the type of campaign being run.

I'd suggest that you're better off playing offence elsewhere so the Republicans have too much on their plate to try and compete in CT and NJ. Hell, if they do manage that, they'll probably already have Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, so the election will be lost anyway.

by Englishlefty 2007-06-10 05:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

I think 2008 will be a different type of election than 2000 and 2004 when the GOP ran to the right. Unless they go with one of their second tier far right candidates they are very likely to nominate someone who the voters will see as a moderate ( perhaps even some would see as liberal). Guiliani, Romney, McCain all could have been Democrats (McCain was even recruited to switch a few years ago and was considered for VP by Kerry) so they will have some crossover appeal that was not there in 2000 and 2004.

by robliberal 2007-06-10 07:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Romney won't have crossover appeal any more - he's running hard right, he can't afford to appear remotely moderate or he gets accused of being a flip-flopper. McCain does have crossover appeal, but less than he used to. I'd also say that Giuliani's authoritarianism is likely to put off social liberals whilst his history isn't going to win over many conservative Dems. That said, he's the only one who's got a chance of being competitive in the north-east.

by Englishlefty 2007-06-10 01:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

I have come to believe that Obama would be Clinton's best choice for running mate, if she wins the nomination.   We are in an age where "firsts" are a good thing, and the more the better.  Clinton/Obama would bring out an unprecedented number of women to the polls (many who have never voted in their lives would come out because of Clinton,) Hispanics would be out in force pulling the Democratic lever (due to Clinton,) between the two you would have an unprecedented amount of African-Americans going to the polls, Obama can bring out the youth vote in huge numbers, he can also bring in some Independents.     Of all candidates Clinton is probably seen as the most experienced (even ahead of McCain, definitely well ahead of Giuliani, Romney and Thompson) because of her many years in different levels of government, so she would not need an experienced person to be her VP.    

These two candidates have beaten anything we have ever seen in this country when it comes to fundraising (from either party) and getting folks excited.   The historic precedent a Clinton-Obama team would set is staggering, the many barriers this would shatter in one instance (and how our country would be transformed instantly because of that) is amazing.   If it comes to such an alignment, I think this would make the most sense.  I am not afraid that it would be "too many firsts."   It is time to shatter preconceived gender-based and racially tinged notions in this country once and for all, for the entire world to see.    

by georgep 2007-06-09 03:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

If it happened and they won it would cause mass hysteria on the extreme right.

by robliberal 2007-06-09 04:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

I would be thrilled by a Clinton/Obama ticket!

by markjay 2007-06-09 08:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Assuming the primary stays clean (and it looks like it will - Obama ruins his entire schtick if he goes negative and Clinton can't afford to alienate any potential Democratic voters as she's already had the swiftboat treatment) I'd say Obama is Clinton's best bet for a VP. It'd help to meld the campaigns together, as it'd make it obvious that Obama would be heir apparent.

If he turned it down, Sebelius would probably be her best bet. Gubernatorial experience, moderate image and from a non-Democratic state (Kansas wouldn't be competitive, but it'd harm coastal elites narratives) but still pro-choice. Ticks most of the boxes, and whilst I don't think she'd work in an attack dog role, a Clinton GE campaign would probably do better to soak up the attacks, let Clinton deal with them herself and hope that they push up Republican negatives which more than her own (which is fairly likely, as her negatives are high enough that they're probably at or near their ceiling).

by Englishlefty 2007-06-10 05:35AM | 0 recs
Senators don't need running mates. nt.

by BruceMcF 2007-06-10 07:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

http://www.centredaily.com/news/politics /story/120568.html

The survey shows the top Democratic contender, Hillary Rodham Clinton, with twice the support from women as her nearest rival but dwindling strength among men. Her margin over Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has eroded slightly since the last AP-Ipsos poll in March.

by Lorraine 2007-06-09 08:05AM | 0 recs
Al Gore

The most shocking news is Al Gore's strong showing. It shows you primary voters are not sold on the current two non-Hillary candidates.

I will support either Hillary or Al Gore in a heartbeat. They are the only two who can beat GOP in general election.

by bryandem 2007-06-09 08:09AM | 0 recs
Bryandem

just because you keep telling yourself thus stuff over and over agiain doesn't make it true.

by nevadadem 2007-06-09 08:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Did they also ask w/o Gore? What are the numbers then?

by sepulvedaj3 2007-06-09 08:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

They have not released the PDF file yet so it is not known if they also did it without Gore. In most other polls taking Gore out increases Clinton's lead.

by robliberal 2007-06-09 08:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

yea i know thats why i want them -

If Gore begins to trend about 20% in polls it will be bad for Obama and worse for Edwards.

by sepulvedaj3 2007-06-09 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

That may also be part of why Richardson is gaining in some polls and even Biden gained some in the latest NH poll. Clinton has strong hardcore support and is even gaining in some polls while Edwards and Obama continue to soften.

by robliberal 2007-06-09 09:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

The reason Richardson and Biden are gaining support are because they are becoming more well known. The debates and Advertising(Richardson's case) HAVE GIVEN THEM EXSPOSURE.

by BDM 2007-06-09 09:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

I'm not sure that Richardson's sad debate performances were the kind of exposure he needs.  Biden did well, however.

by BigBoyBlue 2007-06-09 10:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

They only asked with Gore.

by clarkent 2007-06-09 09:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

    Another useless poll.  Gore isn't running!  Gore isn't running!  When will the pollsters learn?

by cilerder86 2007-06-09 08:21AM | 0 recs
Gore is running

he's just not declared

by d bad 2007-06-09 12:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Yes, Gore isn't running, but the fact that he's got 20% is really damn surprising. Those are better numbers than Fred Thompson.

by PsiFighter37 2007-06-09 08:23AM | 0 recs
it is kind of useless

and shows that familiarity and name ID play a part in these polls, if Gore did run he would probably win the nomination though.

by nevadadem 2007-06-09 08:31AM | 0 recs
nothing to do with natural name ID

Gore was well known 6 months ago, but he was only polling 11%

His numbers have been rising because he's winning people over - the Oscar, the senate testimony, the new book, and now Live Earth.

Gore earned that 20%

by d bad 2007-06-09 12:51PM | 0 recs
Re: it is kind of useless

No, it shows how soft support behind Clinton is for the other candidates.  

The name ID point continues to amaze.  Gore is JUST now coming up stronger in polls.  There is no way in Hades you can claim that his name ID has grown while Obama's and Edwards' has FALLEN over the last 4 months.  

These nonsensical points are really just made to "muddy the waters," right?

by georgep 2007-06-09 04:04PM | 0 recs
Exactly

I suspect that many primary voters who supported Obama/Edwards initially have a second thought after the debate. That's why you see Al Gore's number is gradually increasing these days even if there's no sign he's running.

by bryandem 2007-06-09 08:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Exactly

no bryan you are simply making shit up.

by nevadadem 2007-06-09 08:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Exactly

These are national polls, while interesting, we donot have a national primary.

The nomination is won through a series of state primaries and caucuses.Ask nominee's Dean and Muskie WHO AT a similar period of time in the nomination process dominated the national pools for the democratic nominee.

by BDM 2007-06-09 08:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Exactly

so much hate and spite. Sad really

by world dictator 2007-06-09 11:40AM | 0 recs
a-s-t-r-o-t-u-r-f-e-r nt

by jforshaw 2007-06-09 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Exactly

RIGHT !?!  The way pro-Clinton people are attacked and maligned on here is deplorable.

Simply linking to a pro-Clinton story or poll will bring threats of banning, accusations of motives, identities, etc.

We all should be able to support our candidates without being subject to personal attacks.

Isn't that the very idea of "My Direct Democracy"?

by BigBoyBlue 2007-06-09 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Exactly

I think so much hate on the far left undermines the political potential of the netroots to be a part of the process. It is unfortunate there some on the left who want the netroots to be a leftist version of freerepublic.

by robliberal 2007-06-09 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Exactly

I agree with your larger point here.  The way you were attacked for your "Hollywood - Clinton" diary was ridiculous.  I was thinking of starting a diary on that issue myself when I read the article you linked to online that morning.   It is an interesting tug-of-war between Obama and Clinton in an extremely important state, after all.   I doubt I would have been attacked the same way, simply because I have been around longer here.  But that is not a good excuse for the attacks you had to endure.  The diary itself should be viewed fairly, and I saw nothing wrong whatsoever with that diary.  

The way I look at this:  By this time 10 months from now there is a good chance this site transfors to 90% pro-Clinton (if she wins the nomination) with many claiming that they are "discovering" good things about her they did not realize previously and all trollish posts attempting to smear her receiving unfavorable treatment.  

If you hang in there and don't give up on this place, you might see that day.   :-)

by georgep 2007-06-10 07:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Exactly

transfors=transforms

by georgep 2007-06-10 07:55AM | 0 recs
I Am Confused, MyDD! ;)

Thanks, georgep.

I am completely confused as to what the rules are here.  There are no Terms Of Service or posting guidelines information anywhere on the website.  I've written to the owners of the websight in an attempt to be a responsible member of the MyDD community, however, I've never received a reply.

I don't understand the ratings systems or the banning policies. here.  Unfortunately, the pro-Clinton posts are routinely rated low.  Are there any consequences to low-ratings?  

In my diary that you reference, I was attacked as an astrotufer, plant, fake, insubstantive, Clintonista, machine, mentally disabled, etc.  However, none of that received any criticism from MyDD.  I, however, did receive an admonisment from Jerome stating: "Enough with the caps in the headline crap."  When I apologized for doing so (I didn't know) my apology received a "1" rating.  

It seems to be OK here to attack people personally if you disagree with their ideas.  Why is "formatting" a greater sin than making personal attacks against those who have differing views.

Clearly, I am a pro-Clinton progressive.  For that, I make no apologies.  However, I have NEVER made a nasty remark against another poster.  

The reality here seems to be, that being pro-Clinton, yet still respectful of MyDD members puts you in a tenuous position here at MyDD.  Being anti-Clinton, you seem to be able to be nasty and rude without any risk whatsoever.

Again, I AM CONFUSED!

by BigBoyBlue 2007-06-10 09:48AM | 0 recs
Re: I Am Confused, MyDD! ;)

It's the price you pay for being yourself.

There are people here who I think are terrible posters, but they are "popular" because they happen to be in favor of Edwards or Obama.   It happens.  Like I said, this will be over in 8 months, either way.  

 I would not worry too much.  After all, it is only "words," not sticks and stones.  :-)  

by georgep 2007-06-10 07:08PM | 0 recs
Re: I Am Confused, MyDD! ;)

I was speaking more to the troll-rating/banning issue.

by BigBoyBlue 2007-06-11 03:51AM | 0 recs
Re: I Am Confused, MyDD! ;)

I see.  I am not exactly sure how that works, either.

I believe a huge amount of Zero ratings may create a problem for a poster, but Ones are different.  IMO they are still somewhat of a troll rate, but I don't think they trigger any kind of looksee from the rulers of this site.  You should be fine.

Plus, as you participate here regularly, you will be growing some "grudging" respect for sticking up for your candidate rather than being a fly-by.    :-)

by georgep 2007-06-11 05:41AM | 0 recs
better than Fred Thompson

yet Fred keeps getting more enthusiastic press

Gore is THE dark horse of 2008

by d bad 2007-06-09 12:52PM | 0 recs
Rob you can/should do better

This is a bad post.  

1. No link to the poll.

  1. No link in the link to the poll.
  2. No trend provided.
  3. Nothing is provided except a headline--a few numbers--and RCP averages (also without link)

5. After digging I found that the story really is that HRC lost 5 points in the AP poll since March (38 - 33). She is trending down.

Com'on rob you can do better and you should.  You post multiple times a day and I appreciate the info but at the very least I expect a link to the poll numbers.  The trends are becoming more and more important as the race move on.  The story is in the trends and averages--not the raw numbers.

Bottom line:  If you don't have the info then don't write a diary.  Wait until the info is on-line.

by aiko 2007-06-09 10:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Rob you can/should do better

I agree..Rob dont want you to know that HRC actually is trending down...Come on now, if you want to post polls about your candidate, do it the right way.

by JaeHood 2007-06-09 10:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Rob you can/should do better

I have seen nothing to indicate she is trending down. The polls have shown just the opposite for months now.

by robliberal 2007-06-09 02:58PM | 0 recs
by aiko 2007-06-09 03:28PM | 0 recs
by aiko 2007-06-09 03:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Rob you can/should do better

That does not show any significant change that would indicate "trending down".

by robliberal 2007-06-09 03:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Rob you can/should do better

This is tiresome.  You are tiresome. Your candidate is winning.  But her numbers are trending downward.  It is not complicated.  

RCP in March (high for 2007): 38.9%
RCP today:  33.6%

DOWN 5.3 points

Pollster.com in Feb. (high for 2007):  37%
Pollster.com today: 34%

DOWN 3 points

AP/ipso poll in March: HRC = 38%
AP/ipso poll today: HRC = 33%

DOWN 5 points.

It has been a steady and slow, repeat slow, downward trend in the polls.  That is the fact.  

She is still winning by 10+ points but her numbers  are shrinking--the margins are shrinking.

by aiko 2007-06-09 05:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Rob you can/should do better

She will continue to trend down and crash in flame...Those numbers clearly shows that she's loosing steam...we are a long way from caucus night so plenty of time for her to be irrelevent.

by JaeHood 2007-06-09 06:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Ive never seen any data that says edwards wins ever head to head race

by world dictator 2007-06-09 11:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Then you should look, because he does the best in general election head-to-head matchups.

by Quinton 2007-06-09 11:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Yup. Also interesting that Edwards pulls in 11% with Gore being included in the mix. georgep likes to talk about how Edwards is stuck at 11% nationally, but here he is at 11% with a guy who isn't running included sapping his strength. Edwards is in a good place in early states and he'll continue to get better.

by Quinton 2007-06-09 11:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Yikes.  So give Edwards an extra 2 percent in this poll if Gore is not included, 13%.   Other polls have shown Edwards actually pull in less  than 11% with Gore in ((i.e. Opinion Dynamics latest poll had Edwards at 8%.)   The "with Gore" aggregate is 11%.  Call it about 13% without Gore in the mix.    

by georgep 2007-06-10 07:46AM | 0 recs
Title should be: Al Gore tied for second place!

that's the real story here

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/6 /9/132042/9595

by d bad 2007-06-09 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Well I look at it this way ... Hillary is the only candidate - the only one - who has never been below first place in national polling.  

John Edwards announced he was running six months ago and hasn't even come close to her numbers. Obama is running as hard as he can to overcome her after five months.  Hillary remains steady, within a couple of points and has now aced the first two debates.  

This campaign isn't "new" anymore.  We're almost halfway to the primary elections - in fact, in three weeks, we will be at the halfway mark.

I lurked on this blog and on dailykos.com for many months before becoming a participant; and I constantly read diaries that predicted nothing but gloom and doom for Hillary - everything from "she'll be toast by Easter" to "John Edwards will bury her with his healthcare plan" to "Once Obama's fundraising figures come in, it's game over for Hillary".

Pardon me for saying this is damned well getting amusing.  

Hillary's fighting like hell out there, just like the other candidates, and no matter what anyone says, she never took victory for granted.  She hardly deserves the trashing she gets from people like TarHeel who seems to live to find "stuff" he can use against her.
 

by samueldem 2007-06-09 02:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

I just got back from "Walking for Obama" and I have no doubt Hillary's poll strength is real.  But it is also very soft.  On the low end are the people who don't know anything about the other candidates so they are for Hillary just because they know her name. On the high end are the people who think the country was better off when Bill was President and think if they vote for Hillary they  get Bill.  What we found was if you can get two minutes you can change the mind of the first group.  If you engage them for five minutes, you can change the minds of the others.  But it will take mobilization, effort, and footsoldiers.

As a side note to the Edwards supporters out there, you better get off your computers and into the streets because your candidate is virtually unknown among a large segment.  The area we were walking in was a lower middle class neighborhood, primarily African-American and Hispanic.

by dougdilg 2007-06-09 05:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

yup, the edwards netrooters are like the Deaniacs..They just stay behind their computer and blog all day...those netrooters wont show up on caucus night...Obama netrooters are engaged and fuck and they are all over the place canvassing every weekend.

by JaeHood 2007-06-09 06:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

I'm curious, was it the Compton/Long Beach area? Did you stick to the campaign script in the first two minutes and then expand out in the next three minutes?  Were your remarks totally pro-Obama or did you throw in a few HRC negatives?  Was the most common response, I don't know enough about Obama?  What did the Hispanics you talked to think of Obama?

by mboehm 2007-06-09 07:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

No we were in the area around Arlington and Jefferson.  We didn't hold to a script, every house was a somewhat different situation and our approach wasn't to be negative about Hillary, just positive about Barack and to point out the things we feel make him a very unique candidate, a very special candidate for this moment in time.  The most common response from African-Americans was a skepticism about America more than about Barack, it was America is not about to elect a black man President.  The Hispanics on the whole didn't know that much about him.  They had heard about him and were curious but didn't know that much.  Fortunately we had a bi-lingual person with us who could speak to them.  Overall what people expressed was they want out of Iraq, they want to know about the candidates immigration policy, they feel their vote doesn't count and that they can't trust politicians.

But perhaps our main focus was voter registration and asking people to get involved.  At the end of the day our group of 5 managed to register 5 new voters, all in favor of Barack.  The number doesn't seem like much, but when you consider our small group doubled our size by the end of the day.  If every Obama supporter could get out there and register one new voter in favor of Barack, he will become the next President and we will have a Democratic Congress serving with him.

by dougdilg 2007-06-09 10:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Thanks for responding.  This mass canvassing idea has been getting a lot of positive press and I hope they do it again in a few months (or sooner).  California is such a daunting field work state because it is so large (I'm up in San Francisco)- but you got us five votes closer!  I'm too inept to create a link but look at the 6/9 Des Moines Register and read about how Obama personally got an uncommitted person to decide between HRC/BHO in Dubuque- great stuff.    

by mboehm 2007-06-09 11:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

I hope the Obama campaign will organize a new one each month or so...I canvassed in my neighborhood with 3 friends and we registered about 7 new people and talked to as many as 40 people, knocked on about 90 doors.

Out of the 40 people that we talked too,over 50% were very interested about the campaign and asked us more about him while the others were undecided..4 people were leaning toward Hillary.

by JaeHood 2007-06-10 09:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

The numbers arn't out yet but Obama had thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, of people out walking for him today... How increadbile if that.  This is what a movement is about - Were still 7 months from the first vote!

I doubt Hill could pull off anything like this.

People Believe - Believe!

by gb1437a 2007-06-09 06:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Continues Lead In AP Poll

Clinton is the best candidate to lead our country out of the dark abyss of the last 8 years.  With her as President, America can be proud again.  She is experienced and she knows what to do to make that happen- and having Bill alongside her to help her lead, we will finally get back on the right track.

by reasonwarrior 2007-06-09 07:19PM | 0 recs

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