What the new Rasmussen polls might mean.

Originally published at CountryCrats.

Note: this is based entirely on the idea that the Rasmussen report is correct.  Feel free to debate that below. The new Rasmussen polls now have their Senate prediction looking like this:
9/18       41(D)   7(Lean D)  3 (Toss-up)   1(Lean R)   48(R)
That makes a total of:
48 - D
49 - R
3 - Toss-up.
The good news after the break.

The three toss-ups are Tennessee, New Jersey, and Missouri. New Jersey is safe. As my only proof of that I bring you this commentary.

 

I am from there. (1+ / 0-)

   New Jersey.
And every single election, whether it's for the President, Senator, Governor, Senator, you name it.

   This is what happens.
    So not making this up.
    You can do the research.
    I'm too lazy right now, tired from work.

   But every single time, polls come out showing the D in the lead months ahead.
    Then the lead shrinks.
    Then the R even gains a few points.

   Then the NJ media goes beserk screaming TIGHT RACE tight race tight TIGHT tight WOW! could it be?? Yes, this is one hell of race.
    Then they keep this up to election day.

   Then kossaks and everyone outside of NJ goes OH SHIT. is Blue NJ going Red? Purple?

   They said Gore was locked in a tight one with Bush.
    Right up until days before.
    Then Gore takes the state by like what?
    12?
    They said Bush might take NJ over Kerry by like four points?
    Kerry wins it.

   The polls showed a tight race for Corzine for Gov. with the R.
    RIGHT up until the polls opened they said the R (Forrester) could very well win.
    According to the polls.
    And Corzine wins by double digits (two years ago).

   It never ends.
    I don't get it.

   I am SO not worried about NJ going for Kean.
    It ain't ever EVER ever going to happen.
    I promise you.

   I've lived here all my life.
    I don't care what anyone says, Kean loses to the D, period.

   by Christin on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 07:04:53 PM EDT

       *
          * [new] I'm from there too (0 / 0)

         I think Kean is not gonna make it either. If he was running for da guvner, maybe, but not for the Senate. New Jersey voters realize that there is much more at stake here. Note the large number of undecideds. I would bet most of those have actually already made up their minds, but people in Jersey like to pose like they can be swayed even when they can't.

         by mertam on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 08:39:25 PM EDT
        *
          * [new] Menendez vs. Kean (0 / 0)

         ...is this year's version of Knowles vs. Murkowski (AK-Sen) in 2004, only with the parties reversed.

         Lisa Murkowski was an unpopular appointed incumbent and Tony Knowles a very likable challenger. Knowles led in many of the polls leading up to the election. However, party affiliation meant enough to Alaska's voters to make Murkowski the winner.

         I suspect the same reasoning will put Menendez over the top. NJ is as blue as AK is red.

         Let's make Tommy Moore our Governor.

         Vote Ballenger SC-03

         by wayward on Sat Sep 16, 2006 at 08:32:48 AM EDT

Add New Jersey to our side and you have:
49 - D
49 - R
2 - Toss-up.

The two toss-ups are Tennessee and Missouri. All signs look bad in Missou, we are going to lose that one. However, Ford is starting to produce a steady lead and is putting out a good ad buy, even if it is a bit conservative at times.

   That leaves us at 50-50. However, the lean-R race is Virginia. If you saw Meet the Press this weekend, you know we have a good shot at taking down Mr. Macaca, which means we are closing in on 51-49. And, that my friends, is why we never give up.

Tags: George Allen, harold ford, Jim Webb, Rasmussen (all tags)

Comments

7 Comments

NJ Dems ALWAYS poll 4-6 pts low

I agree 100 % with those quoted comments. Every time over the last 6 years that NJ is polled, it looks tight.  Then the voting happens, and VOILA - it's a Dem landslide.

There is something wrong with the NJ polling models.

by dataguy 2006-09-18 08:20AM | 0 recs
Re: NJ Dems ALWAYS poll 4-6 pts low

glad to hear that.  If the next round of indy polling on these races confirms this slide towards 49/2/49, then I think we are in good shape.

Because, it seems more like 49/3/48.  On the day I can post a diary with 49/3/48 as my title, I will be a happy boy.

So far away from where we were last year with 46/4/50 or something like that.

by Robert P 2006-09-18 10:45AM | 0 recs
Missouri

I can't believe you say "All signs look bad in Missou[ri], we are going to lose that one."

The two most recent polls (Survey USA and Rasmussen) show McCaskill in the lead (but within the m/e).  We just won a big court decision there.  Bill Clinton just came and raised money for McCaskill and campaigned for her.  McCaskill just pulled off a master coup with Rams tickets.  

Will she win?  I don't know.  This race will go down to the final day.  Should be write it off?  NO WAY.  Rather, we should double our efforts there and bring this one home.    

by hilltopper 2006-09-18 12:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Missouri

Optimism.

I'm always optimistic.  Somewhere here on MyDD I predicted a huge Kerry win.  So, while we might win MO, the MO seems to be going against us.  Not an expert on this race, I hope you are right, but this race seems to be tightening while others are loosening up.

I agree that as other races loosen, we should be throwing more resources at MO.

by Robert P 2006-09-18 12:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Missouri

Let's hope things go our way in the Show Me State. It's good Big Dog was there raising dough. We still have several weeks. Here's hoping that our ground operations and last-minute pushes are better than the GOP's! It's too soon to write off the big MO.

by IseFire 2006-09-18 12:35PM | 0 recs
Missouri

Missouri Rasmussen Polls

DATE    REP     DEM
Sep 12   42%      45%
Aug 15    46%     44%
Jul 20     42%     45%
Jun 27     42%     42%

From up 3 to down 2 to up 3.  IMHO, this race has been too close to call since it started.    

Not to beat a dead horse, but I think this is a key race, every bit as much as VA and TN.  It will come down to GOTV.

by hilltopper 2006-09-18 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: What the new Rasmussen polls might mean.

A couple things about the New Jersey trend. It's certainly true Democrats have been understated of late, but also true many sharp posters from New Jersey indicated Menendez would have the most trouble winning a general election, among the logical choices Corzine had. I've always kept that in the back of my mind and I expect a very close result.

Also, if we accept New Jersey undersamples Democrats, why is that ignored in reverse regarding Georgia? I still hear screaming about Cleland and Barnes in '02 and Diebold theft. Meanwhile, many races before Diebold featured Democrats significantly overstated in Georgia. You can look at the '94 Zell Miller re-election, the '96 Cleland race and the '00 Gore numbers. None of the pre-election poll averages were even close to the actual result.

by jagakid 2006-09-18 08:44PM | 0 recs

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