A Look at the Popular Vote
by RJEvans, Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:39:38 PM EDT
Everyone is talking about the popular vote. Everyone wants to know if Hillary Clinton can catch up. Everyone is hyperventilating. This diary is not an analysis on a scenario that will allow Clinton to catch up. Simply, it is a look at the Democratic Primary race through the popular vote, broken down by Democrats, Independents and Republicans.
It is obvious DEMOCRATS have voted for Hillary Clinton in the primaries, while INDEPENDENTS and REPUBLICANS have voted for Barack Obama. Just looking at the Democratic numbers it also becomes obvious that including the several caucus states will not matter and Clinton will still lead in the popular vote among Democratic voters. What is trobling is the large influence voters who are not Democratics have on the Democratic Nomination for President.
On a personal level I belive Democrats should choose the Democratic nominee for President, and it has become obvious that Obama supporters do not like the meddling by Republicans in primaries such as Mississippi. It is very possible Republicans will play a bigger role in the last last several contest in the Democratis race, the question is, if Republicans aid Clinton in defeating Obama in the popular vote, does it matter? Should it count? Is it right? Furthermore, if Clinton still leads among Democratic voters by the convention, should that sway Democratic superdelegates at the Democratic National Convention?
NOTE: The numbers are incomplete as there are still counting left to do. The popular vote is taken by The Green Papers, while exit poll data is taken from CNN. These numbers are estimates and only meant as a reference for argument. I will continue to update the numbers as the primary contest continues.
Update [by RJEvans]:
I'm being accused of being misleading by several posters because I did not include caucus numbers, despite the fact that I said the numbers only included primary states.
Well, I've done the math, per RCP numbers on several caucus states, WY, HA, NE, CO, KS, ND, ID, AK, AS, VI, AND DA. IA, NV, WA and ME still don't have numbers.
Here is what I found:
Obama Net: 125,920
So, as I said, even if I included these caucus states, Obama still will not be able to overtake Clinton among DEMOCRATIC voters.
So, I just provided the proof that I am not being misleading, by simply stating a fact.