The election is probably going to revolve around five major issues:
2) energy costs/inflation
The way the GOP want it is to get their base more or less to report 100% and let the Democrats worry about pulling together people who are not very reliable voters. (Generally this is how the last twenty-five years or so panned out...the higher the turn out, the more change was on the agenda.)
The GOP base is only going to stay home if they get unsatisfactory legislation on immigration or perhaps, energy costs. They won't vote Democrat.
The Dems base will show up...unless of course they are so miffed at the sort of "Dean-murder" tactic that Dems feel like staying home instead of voting for Lieberman, Harman, John Morrison, (fill in the blank here).
The swing voters will likely split evenly because of how our political and economic geography works. So that brings us back to ... who is better getting out the base....recently the GOP. If this holds, the only way the Dems mount a huge sweep is if the GOP stays home.
So the Northeast strategy works, but it won't yield enough seats to change the House leadership. The place everyone should be heading for is Cincinnati.
There are several tight races up and down the Ohio River from IN-8 to OH-6. Add in that bruising battles are going on in IN-2, OH-15, and OH-18, and this is where the majority of the money should go. Here is where the Dems best chances are to attack GOP incumbents and pummel them with every issue in the book from Social Security to Iraq to Ted Strickland's popularity.
I grew up in Dreier's district until I left for college. Subsequently the CA Dems gave my hometown to Adam Schiff, who I am not a big fan of.
The problem with David is that he's in DC nearly the whole time and rarely if ever comes back to the district there. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have exploitable avenues.
1) David Dreier is one of the many GOP legislators in the closet. No one ever seems to bring this issue up...but then again the gay nightlife in DC outshines San Dimas anyday.
2) David Dreier is one of the biggest GOP turncoats on immigration. He used to in the 1990s rail against illegal immigration and shutting the borders and now he's a big reason that resistance for strong border security has to come from Duncan Hunter and James Sensenbrenner. Simply going around and highlighting his hypocrisy on the issue would probably fill your blog's pages.
3) David Dreier is eagerly trying to get federal money to build an extension of the light rail system through his district. It's not feasible for the local and state authorities in Los Angeles County to fund, so he's going to dig up the $3 billion or so to do it from the federal coffers.
4) David Drieier is perhaps the biggest whore to the Chinese government in Washington. He's never met a bill for either trade relations or diplomacy or worker standards non-protection he doesn't like.
Angelides is a liberal candidate willing to say that the state's tax base is too small. Indeed it is...as we are shouldering the burden of a growing illegal work force that's quite large and the logistics needs of the whole country thanks to Wal mart and Costco.
It's true that messagewise both candidates are terrible. But that has much more to do with Westly trying to buy the race with his fortune and bury Angelides without nuance. It's also true that Gavin Newsom and Antonio Villaraigosa (and their donors) are holding back hoping that Arnold wins, California gets even worse and their guy gets to rise as the Democratic messiah in 2010.
However, everyone has this race wrong. Arnold's popularity among Latinos and Blacks has eroded because of illegal immigration and either Democrat will pound him in November. The real danger is that if Westly wins, the state just distingerates into the Third World from the lack of a real tax base.
Having lived for a few months in Hawai'i, I have to say that the non-contiguous states within our Union have a very conflicted political culture.
Murkowski's unpopularity has everything to with one decision: He had his daughter fill her Senate seat and she hasn't been able to open ANWR.
Both in Hawai'i and Alaska there is a tendancy to revere politicians who have senority or a long working relationship. This is because out there the federal government is seen as being benevolent force helping to infuse what are usually hopeless economies.
Alaska's middle class is evaporating with the lack of oil production jobs. There are no union factories making cars there...no high paying...God fearing jobs outside of petroleum. Murkowski has little or no chance losing for the simple reason that a visit or two by petro-barons George Bush and Dick Cheney will reassert how much the Governor has done and will do to help the state's middle class.
If you are at all familiar with physics, what this map really identifies is that there's a sort of "thermocline" that separates a person's attitudes toward policy and overall politics. I think you are selling the average American short...they have a great idea what "Social Security reform" or the "War on Terror" means. But in the sense that their unconscious identities overtake them, these policy views are squashed.
And that's the moral of the story. It's not about framing per se, or about moderates or extremists or Lutherans and Catholics. It's about understanding who you are talking to, and WHAT MATTERS to THEM and NOT what a highly trained pollster or a focus group tells you. The Republicans have been succeessful because the know how to push people's buttons in highly homogenous communities. The Democrats usually hail from places not as uniform, so simply emulating the GOP won't work.
Especially because people aren't stupid. When they see bad policy, they know it, and they begin to lose faith in everything associated with that policy. Ask the Republicans.
Las Vegas is a city where much of the workforce are illegal aliens. That's not to say that there are not as mentioned, plenty of people who have jobs in the expensive restaurants, stores, shows, etc that are not.
The unions are not going to get behind Carter for the simple fact that they play ball with the casinos who are not particularly progressive. Remember...the Mob used to simultaneously run unions back east and fund their gaming ventures out here simultaneously.
Carter can't rely on union machinery to gain popularity in Las Vegas...he will have to run a lot of TV ads, which are bound to be costly.
But nevertheless, the guy the Democrats really need to court isn't Oscar Goodman, Dina Titus, Jack Carter or the others....they ought to draft Penn Jilette when he's tired of peforming. He would make a great senator...since he's used to blathering on in front of people while he's taking their money and he espouses excellent progressive values.
If Speier wins the Lt.Governor position the earliest she would be favored in the race is 2014. 2010 is likely to be a slugfest between uber mayors Gavin Newsom and Antonio Villaraigosa (should Schwarzenegger prevail.) If he doesn't then it's even more likely that Jackie's gotta wait until 2014.
I've never met her but I did analyze a bill she wrote for class, SB 861. Even though it's about dog breeding, the big is issue is devolution from the states to the counties. I'm not sure if this is an idelogical tenet of hers or not, but it's more relevant to me than if she authored the bill on privacy laws most Democrats here already support.
It is just not acknowledged as such. The spy plane incident in 2001...Iraq...Iran...North Korea...Darfur...Russia...even Al Qaeda.
Our country grew in the 1990s and ran out of power to supply it. But because the Chinese devalued their currency, Asian economies tanked and dropped the demand for oil worldwide to all time low. But as soon as Wal-mart began to exploit this change, China's explosive growth has brough the country's closer and closer into a shooting war over oil. Yet China for its part is aggressively seeking non-petroleum projects like 3 Gorges Dam while the US continues to think the best way to increase energy supplies is to conquer.
Here we are stuck in the Second Cold War, where ideology doesn't matter...but de facto world currencies do....
I think you have it backwards...the Republicans fight for taxes all the time...lower taxes. The better framing meme is going to be for fairer taxation. It's true that the "taxpayer rebellion" of the 1970s stoked the fire of the Reagan "Revolution". But realize that people aren't stupid. Part of the reason Iraq has plummeted in popularity has nothing to do with our inability to win, but how much money we are spending and how little the invasion has yielded. Let the GOP try to take their "bankrutping America through lower taxes" narrative a little further. We just need a few highways to collapse, a few more blackouts, a few more natural disasters...
This article is hardly supportive of Warner. He's a non-shrill moderate...he's from Virginia....he's a centrist!
The reason to support Warner is that he took a state that was in deep trouble and using Democratic ideas (new and old) and turned it around. His policy stands will be more pragmatist than idealist, but he's one of the deepest candidates in that regard and I respect him and Feingold the most.
Neverthless, the winner of the nomination has to compete with the Clintonesque media stratgies which will downplay this.