Romney is nothing more than Bob Dole, Jerome. He's the candidate to fall on the sword if they believe the Democrats are insuperable.
The fact is, you raise cogent points about Dems feeling hubris...but that's the whole point of the race right now. Big donor started to cash checks too early and as such the long length of the race is actually beginning to help the grass roots candidates. Huckabee, Paul, and Gary Coleman included.
Huckabee is a scary candidate for Hillary indeed...but what that really means is that the more mainstream a candidate appears, the less likely their opponent can defeat him or her easily. That sounds like Duveger's Law there....
Cable news isn't a high form of journalism. Or at least, hasn't been since Bernie Shaw retired. However I agree that the centrifuge of Matthews and Olbermann has redefined MSNBC and made it much more competitive to faux. But otherwise I won't go out on a limb and say we need to make it an all-left, all-shouty affair.
Carlson is good as a libretarian, contrarian voice. He doesn't come across as a heavyweight, but keep in mind compared to Fox's schedule MSBNC has steered clear of two of their staples: a business show and a law(crime) show. That's the problem.
Trying to expand a very small universe of political news for five hours a night is tough. Doing it without talking about celebrities, business, or sports will be even tougher.
That is hard to imagine given the following: The Republicans love to pretend they have some diverse, wholesome party. But they are really just an unhappy marriage of social and fiscal conservatives. Since Nixon, I have never seen the fiscal conservative's candidate not win the nomination. This is for two reasons. One...since Nixon's election in 1968, we have only seen 12 years of Democratic presidents...and hence only three elections where a Dem ran as an incumbent or as a successor vice president. The GOP meanwhile has done this five times, and would have been six but not for the fact that Cheney elected not to run.
Moreover, the Nixonian strategy of using the 22nd Amendment has been a staple of Republican politicking ever since. The GOP already has their man to be Bob Dole: it's Mitt Romney. But the field will only collapse around Mitt after it's clear in the big GOP backers mind that the Dem candidate is unstoppable or the election in general is unwinnable. Until that point, the big money will stay off the table (not that Romney will get or need big money).
Even if that is true, recognize that Edwards has alienated Kucinich this time around on occasion and wouldn't want to admit just how large or small that bloc was.
Believe or not, I like JRE much better than BHO, HRC, etc. I simply worried that he was trying to appear "elite tier" too early in the race and it's backfired due to Hillary's supremacy in building an institution.
Now you have encouraged me to write a whole diary though: "Why Hillary Can't Win".
There's no parallel to 2004. The outsider candidate isn't leading and taking the nation by storm. Instead it's the insider who is facing an "insurgency".
Nevertheless, remember that Edwards relied heavily in Iowa on Kucinich's people. If Dennis is the kingmaker again, he will help redefine the race. The polls also are condensing because it's no longer about name recognition and more about what the candidates have said.
Clinton would love a Christmas Primary beause she gets the battle over with very quickly and the REpublican side is far more divided there than Iowa. Say what you want, but she's the reason for this stupid front-loading that has gone on this decade. Obviously, ever since Carter both parties are trying hard to turn the nomination into a coronation.
Still, Gardner's biggest problem is that Christmas is on a Tuesday and he would want it later in the week so he could schedule the primary a couple days before when the news cycle would be all his.
I had the same thought...but in reality I think the biggesr influence of the bowl season is that ads will be slightly more expensive in the run-up to the caucus than before. That would again favor easy money like Hillary and Obama.
But don't forget...Edwards came in second last time around with help from Kucinich. And if that alliance holds up again...DK's supporters are very entrenched.
I can only add that I am pretty sure the media is going to complain loudly about all of this. The first weekend in January are the NFL playoffs and in a snowy place like Iowa sure to dampen turnout. January 8th is also bad (the Tuesday) because of the National Championship college football games.
Part of me wonders what pressure is being exerted to not begin the primary season until January 15th.
Recognizing how old this post is, my comment is just for Jonathan and the others' edification.
When Bowers took over MyDD, the Dean campaign had blown out, he was thinking about doing the DNC Chair and the Republicans were running roughshod. The identity crisis for MyDD isn't that Chris and Matt are leaving...it's that we have become the enemy. The revolution is over, and now we have to govern without becoming GOP Lite.
MyDD still has a huge role to play, a sort of sound-board against the "might makes right" attitude of Rahmmys or Clintonistas. The race for '08 has already begun...and the trends and factors that have illuminated politics in the 21st century haven't gone away. There always will be work to do.