I too don't think it will be as bad among Democrats as many think. Especially in states with early voting. I am not an expert, but I have a hard time believing that a lot of the voters that have been active voters in 2004, 2006, and 2008 will suddenly decide they don't want to vote this year.
I am not exactly thrilled this year. I have a lot going on. But I know where my polling place is. I'll swing in and vote straight ticket and be on my way. I hate wingnuts.
Stimulus? Economists of all stripes argued it was necessary. I am on the front lines ... commercial construction. We were in free fall in the spring of '09, laying off 4 or 5 people a week. Some economists argue that the stimulus wasn't big enough. Teabaggers be damned stimulus probably is what kept us out of a Depression.
The bailouts? Read up on the reaction at the Fed, and at the Bush White House, after they decided to let Lehman sink. They crapped their pants, as money was flying out of the system, they knew they couldn't let another major firm go down. That lead to TARP, signed into law by Bush.
Health care? Now Democrats and Progressive who heard Clinton and Obama both campaign on it in the primaries, and Obama in the general, don't want it? Didn't want it? You serious?
The overhaul of the student loan system flat out made sense. Its SAVES tax payer money. Banks were miffed because it was a no risk gravy train for them. But they are hurting without it. We've seen many post record profits.
Again, I think you are a Republican.
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, its a duck people.
Republican candidates have am radio, Fox News, rightwing blogs, outside special interest groups ... all on their side. They take aim at their enemy, Democrats, and they fire with all they have. Using lies, smears, slander, money, you name it.
Democrats have nothing. In fact Democrats are being eaten by their own. I expect a lot of good people to announce retirement before their next election because of it. We are going to see solid lawmakers lose this Nov. because of it.
Trump will not want to have his private life or past business dealings exposed, he won't want to give up the golf, the tv, etc, and run hard. He also, I don't think, will want to part with the 300 or 400 million of his own cash it would take.
Remember Trump is "only" worth about 1.6 billion according to Forbes so he'd have to spend a pretty sizable percentage (18 or 19%) of his worth to win. That doesn't seem like his style.
If he were to run and win it would be fascinating. It would either work great, with both parties in Congress being somewhat forced to work with him, and not being held back by party loyalty. Or it would be a train wreck with both parties putting him on ice for 4 years.
Once question would be, how would he staff his administration? I think a lot of the best people from both parties would probably take a pass on working in an independent admin.
A Dem House could pass legislation, and a GOP Senate could F it up, and then take to committee and who knows what would result. The other way around we could just kill whacked out shit from the Republicans.
Plus that whacked out shit Republicans would pass in the House will be money in '12.
I am an optimist for sure. But I think that the media is starting to look at a little closer at people on right. People like O'Donnell, Paladino, etc. are bad news for the Republicans, and not just in their individual races.
In places like Ohio, Kentucky, and Pa we see Strickland, Conway, Sestak closing the gap, which I think goes along with what I said above, people aren't sure and are giving Democrats a second look. I can only assume that the same is happening in House races.
Add to this a generic number that is pretty much tied right now, and the fact that the Republican Party, at least in the last poll I saw, polls at a lower favorable number then the Democrats, and I don't think you see a wave election where they Republican Party takes 50 plus seats. It might not even take 40.
I think right now I'd say we have a 50-50 shot of keeping the House and if things keep trending our way I like our chances.
I do agree with Rothenberg. I think that once we see the polling around the 10th of the month we'll know a lot more.
Once last thing, and first I must state, I am a huge believer in polls, and love to read them, but I wonder (I am not making a bold statement here, but merely wondering) might this be the first election were modern polling shows some cracks due to cell phone use and caller I.D. I wonder because it seems that we have seem some polling in statewide races lately that show some pretty big differences between polls taken relatively close to together. Not hanging my hat on that or holding out hope for this to happen, I just wonder.