Strong State Polls Today

I thought that I would bring everyone a little mid-convention cheer today.  For what it's worth, Time has just released poll results showing Obama doing very well in Western states:

Colorado: McCain 47, Obama 46
Pennsylvania: Obama 48, McCain 43
Nevada: Obama 49, McCain 44
New Mexico: Obama 53, McCain 40

http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/27/timec nn-battleground-polls/

Additionally, word is that Plouffe is quite optimistic about our chances in November:

Barack Obama's margin among independent swing-voting women and sporadically voting Democrats are two of the main metrics his campaign is closely monitoring, Obama's election manager, David Plouffe, said today.

Plouffe, speaking to reporters, editors and executives of the Atlantic Media company in a throwback conference room in downtown Denver, said that Obama's internal polling suggests that McCain runs a double-digit deficit with this group runs into the double digits in some swing states. "And that's before they know about his position on choice and that he's against equal pay," Plouffe said.

...

Other nuggets from Plouffe:

* If McCain doesn't win Colorado, "he has a 5% chance to win the election."

* He believes that they have "a slight edge" in Virginia.

...

* Said HIllary Clinton's speech "could not have gone better."

* Said the campaign "is really pleased" with where they are in Montana.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arch ives/2008/08/barack_mccains_margin_among _in.php

Update: Obamafan notes a new Florida poll from New Orlando Sentinel/Mason-Dixon with Obama at 45% and McCain at 44%, with 11% undecided.

Tags: obama, polls (all tags)

Comments

17 Comments

Colorado sucks...

Obama retook the lead in most of the other polls. I guess we still have A LOT of work there. Otherwise, as long as we maintain good leads in all these other states & win Ohio, Virginia, and/or Florida, we win hands down. :-)

by atdleft 2008-08-27 01:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Colorado

As many have said before, if it's within 2%, we will win because of ground organization.

by vcalzone 2008-08-27 01:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today

Please add Florida to the List:
New Orlando Sentinel/Mason-Dixon Poll/Aug. 25-26/625 Likely Voters/MOE 4.0
Barack Obama (D) 45 %
John McCain (R) 44 %
Undecided 11 %

Just a remember:
Mason-Dixon Ohio Cleveland Plain Dealer Poll may come out Saturday.

by Obamafan 2008-08-27 01:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today

Florida is really a toss-up. I'm actually quite shocked. I was sure that Obama could not win there.

If McCain has to play defense in Florida, he is screwed.

by sweet potato pie 2008-08-27 01:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today

The FL number is nice, hopefully it will grow.

by notedgeways 2008-08-27 01:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today

Strategic Vision has McCain +7.  It's like they're polling completely different states.

by rfahey22 2008-08-27 01:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today

Florida's voting patterns are changing rapidly.  

- Kerry won among 18-29 year olds by 58-41

  • The Cuban vote is shifting Democratic rapidly
  • Governor Crist restored voting rights to most ex-felons

I think the state is likely to be a pleasant surprise in November.

by CA Pol Junkie 2008-08-27 01:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today

The New Mexico result is... questionable. That's one of the worst outliers we've seen this entire cycle.

by vcalzone 2008-08-27 01:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today

Nevada might be, too, but I'm not complaining.

by rfahey22 2008-08-27 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today

Nevada and New Mexico are pleasant surprises at least.  We'll know after the GOP convention how things are shaping up for November.  Obama's vastly superior organization and greater voter enthusiasm is probably good for 1-2 point overperformance relative to the pollsters' likely voter models.

by CA Pol Junkie 2008-08-27 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today

If Obama carries Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, OR Nevada, he will almost certainly win the election.

by KTinOhio 2008-08-27 01:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today

The Florida Poll was done by Mason-Dixon considered as the best Pollster in the Country.

by Obamafan 2008-08-27 01:35PM | 0 recs
Just who considers them as such?

by MILiberal 2008-08-27 02:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today
Obama up 1 in florida???
please give us a break!!
and up 13 in NM???
what an outlier!!!
by darlene25 2008-08-27 01:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today

I just report, you decide.

by rfahey22 2008-08-27 01:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Strong State Polls Today

MOAR PUNCTUATION PLZ!!?!?!?!?!

by blueAZ 2008-08-27 02:22PM | 0 recs
New Mexico and Nevada are garbage polls

State polls are laughable. I allow private chuckles every day when posters fixate on state polls. It's screams of novice.

The national margin dictates where the states will fall in line, and national averaging is very accurate. If Obama leads nationally by a couple of points, he doesn't lead New Mexico by 13 or Nevada by 5. High comedy.

I've lived in Nevada for 20+ years. The state has 34-37% self-identified conservatives in every survey. That's the foundational reference point, not flimsy state polls. I'm amazed analysts who look for mathematical guidelines are so content to ignore those liberal/conservative percentages. Obviously they never actually wager on this stuff or they wouldn't be so comfortably dense.

The cow counties are allowed to vote in Nevada. Clark County under performs. Every local political analyst talks about the GOP advantages statewide in Nevada. That is legit, and doesn't equate to a 5 point Obama lead in Nevada unless he leads nationally by similar margin. The Hispanic numbers in Nevada do not yet translate to the voting booth -- not legal, not yet 18, or not registered.

On the other hand, the Florida margin is logical. McCain has been over stated in Florida. There's zero chance Obama falters by 5-6 points compared to his national number in Florida, yet that's what some sites want us to believe, based on their blindfolded clutching of state polls.

Florida in 2004 was 20% liberal, 34% conservative. In 2006 it was 20% liberal, 33% conservative. That is the definition of a swing state, about 1-2% more conservative than the nation itself. That's Florida. It went to dead even with the nation in 2000 when we caught the GOP napping, taking the state for granted. Obama may trail where Hillary would have been in Florida by about 1% due to demographic weakness, but not several points. The surveys that pretend Obama will significantly lead or trail a generic Democrat in a given state are crappiola.

The liberal/conservative percentages scream, among other things, that Indiana is not a swing state regardless of state polls, and Florida is very much in play. Deny the fundamentals are your peril.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-08-27 03:07PM | 0 recs

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