The only poll that counts is the one on November 2.
I predict Dems lose 30 seats in the House, 6 seats in the Senate, retain control of both chambers (Just barely in the House).
And, by not losing terribly, Dems win. I, for one, I am going to be popping a big bowl of popcorn to eat while I watch the punditocracy fumpher and fumble and try to figure how they could have been so wrong. Watching Chris Matthews' face drop. Watching heads explode at Fox News. Good times.
Jerome, I told you that you were wrong when you said Barack Obama could never win. You are wrong again. Thank goodness.
How can I be so sure about this? Three words: demographics, demographics, demographics.
Krauthammer takes the position that not much can be extrapolated from the 2008 election, because it was only one election, and you're working from limited data. Trends can't seen with limited data.
He then goes on to extrapolate conclusions from the 2009 election, in which he is working from limited data. In fact, much more limited data consisting of only two governors' races and two Congressional races (which were split 50/50, BTW).
Did he, like Grover Norquist, actually want to dismantle government, or, like Norquist stated, "shrink it so much that we can drown it in the bathtub." What Norquist didn't understand was that by drowning government and killing government, he was MURDERING his fellow citizens, by drowning. There are no "bureaucrats." There are "elites" running our government. There are only human beings. If you have a problem with the way these human beings are running YOUR government (in your stead, so you can go to work and earn a paycheck, pay your rent and feed your children), then what you do is MAKE DAMN SURE that bureaucracies are WORKING PROPERLY and giving good value for your tax dollar. You DON'T turn government workers into scapegoats and straw men to act the big evil villians that the gallant Republicans are going to save the American public from.
What a crock that idea was. A mere vacuous, fallacious pose, an empty lie. Reagan actually didn't care about how well the government was working. He didn't care about the size of the budge (he increased our deficit larger than ALL OTHER PRESIDENTS BEFORE HIM COMBINED. He was no fiscal conservative. This was all fake, a lie to manipulate the American public in the most cyncial way imaginable.
Obama understands that government IS the people. And it is up to people to keep AN EYE on goverment, and make sure it is working for US.
Like Obama said, the question is NOT whether government is too big or too small, but whether or not IT IS WORKING.
Sorry, fellow Citizens, but that means that you have DO HOMEWORK once in a while. Read the paper. Watch C-SPAN. Read blogs, like this one. But, you are no longer allowed to watch ESPN every single weekend and eat nachos while NOT THINKING ABOUT POLITICS OR THE GOVERNMENT.
All Citizens are hereby put on notice: you are now required to be connected, have an opinion about political issues, and keep informed on the news of the day. You are required to stop being ignorant (not stupid, you can't help that if you are, in fact stupid. I said ignorant and I chose that word carefully: you are no longer allowed to IGNORE facts, theories, and things that people smarter than you might be saying). Know the names of your state legislators, Congress people and Senators. The free ride is over.
Facts state that because 53% of the electrate voted for Barack Obama, then by definition his agenda is NOT a "radical agenda", but a mainstream one.
And the poor sad Republidopes just can't get that through their hard little heads.
And don't tell me that those 53% had no idea what they were voting for. His agenda was raked over the coals for well over a year. The three presidential debates had record viewership. They knew this time.
Thank you, Sarah Palin, for being so ignorant and unqualified that you sent thousands of Independents and Republicans screaming running away from the Republican ticket to elect Barack Obama.
And please, do run for President in 2012. It would be a challenge for you to remain as ignorant and frightening as your were this year after four more years as Governor of Alaska, but, I think you're up to the challenge.
Besides, 30 Rock will probably be over by then, and Tina Fey will need work again.
One thing that almost no pundit in the MSM comments on, EVER, is the fact that every 4 years, we have a totally DIFFERENT electorate! They always talk about the Electorate being influenced, or changing its mind, or having a certain mood. It's APPLES AND ORANGES! We have a new Electorate every time.
There's 4 years of old people (and not so old) dying, and 4 years of people turning 18 years old and voting for the first time.
The number of people who remember living in a world of segregation, and apartheid in this country, is growing thinner and thinner every year. The number of people who have a problem with minorities is getting lower and lower every election.
With the Democrats remaining an inclusionist party, and the Republicans remaining an exclusionist party, the numbers don't lie: we're going to be having more and more Democrats and fewer Republicans as the years and decades pass by.
Soon enough, white people will be (like all other groups) a minority in this country. A plurality to be sure, but a minority. It's already happening in our large cities. There will be no majority. And the number of racists will be decidedly thin on the ground.
All this bodes well for painting the map blue in the future. I almost went on Amazon.com and bought Hugh Hewitt's book from a couple years ago, "Painting the Map Red." You can get it for a penny, plus shipping. I just wanted to read to see how spectacularly wrong his predictions turned out.
Your prediction didn't exactly turn out how you had hoped it would, did it, Hugh? This year, that election map will look like a swimming pool with a small red inflatable raft floating in the lower right corner. YEAH!
I know nothing about the candidates. I assume that the Repub is, in fact, a sexist jerk, and Darcy Burner, is, in fact, a great progressive politician. And I would definitely vote for her, based on her politics. And, if I lived in the state, would obviously take the time to find out her positions, and find out just how many lobbyists the Republican guy plays golf with every weekend.
But! That commercial makes the Repub's point and does so in a humorous manner.
Darcy should hire the ad agency that did that spot.
Of course Michigan and Florida should have been stripped. But the committee didn't want to deal with the UPROAR that would have caused. Months of protests. Fox News going crazy. McCain rubbing his hands in glee.
Look at the hew and cry that went up from the Clintonistas AFTER SHE WON MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA, officially, now.
Can you imagine the crying, moaning and garment rending had MI and FL been locked out?
So, the RBC acted like politicians.
Everything that happened on Saturday resulted in sloppy, imperfect comprosmises that neither side was totally happy with.
Hey! Welcome to politics! Yeah, it sucks to be us, mere mortal voters who have to actually deal with the outcome.
But, hey, imagine that happening! Politics being subject to politics!
I AM SHOCKED! THIS IS A DISGRACE! OUTRAGE! DENVER OMELET! WE NEED TO REMOVE THE POLITICS FROM POLITICS!