• comment on a post Missouri Trending Red over 3 years ago

    When one party has one or more competitive primaries and the other party has no competitive primaries, the only thing a turnout difference represents is the level of interest in the primaries. There were 175,000 voters in the Nevada Republican Senate primary where there was a meaningful contest and 116,000 voters in the Nevada Democratic Senate primary where Harry Reid was a foregone conclusion. And yet Sharron Angle hasn't led in a poll in Nevada for a month, and even Rasmussen has admitted that Sandoval's lead over Rory Reid has been cut in half since July in the governor's race. Primary turnout is a weak argument for state trends, and especially so when external factors like who has an interesting race influence turnout.

  • How in the world does Halter make it harder to hold the seat? Lincoln has not merely been down in the polls so far; she has been getting blown out. Halter polls better, has less baggage, and doesn't have local Democratic activists annoyed at him for pulling the crap that Lincoln has pulled over the last year. If Blanche Lincoln wins the primary, Democrats in Arkansas suddenly (and yes, unfortunately) have to deal with the top of the ticket dragging everything else down, impacting all the other races on the ballot negatively. With Halter, even if he loses by as much as high single digits, he still does better than Lincoln looks to be doing, and is thus a net gain for the other races on the ticket.

  • Slashdot already does that, but there's still plenty of bandwidth left. Turns out from the reverse perspective, they want to make sure there's plenty of bandwidth to ensure that all the shopping and porn doesn't get in the way of the Holy Wars!

  • comment on a post Hutchison Likely to Remain in the Senate over 5 years ago

    Actually, doesn't this set up the best of all possible situations? In November 2010, Hutchinson herself will probably be on the ticket for Governor, along with all the House and state-level races. The Republican lean of the state gives any Republican an edge at the state-wide races - which would include a Senate seat. However, if I read the Texas statutes correctly, then it looks to me like Hutchinson, upon resigning her Senate seat after winning, would then have to call a special election for the spring of 2011 and could only appoint a temporary replacement until then. In a low-turnout election, anything can happen - and we might manage to get a Democrat into the seat on the strength of a good ground game. And then there might be some incumbency benefits playing out in 2012, with Obama on the ticket for his second term.

  • comment on a post Gregg Will be Comm Sec Mon.-NYT-And? over 5 years ago

    Warren Rudman has already said he wouldn't do it, and a lot of that article relies on unnamed analysts and sources - and even the unnamed officials only say that Governor Lynch would have to 'strongly consider' a Republican for the seat. Go to Blue Hampshire for much more analysis on this one before forming the circular firing squad, please. Nobody in the know has made any statements about who's actually under consideration, just lots of speculation and analysis.

  • That would be an interesting ploy on Toomey's part - I don't think I buy it, but it would be clever. Having seen that Specter will move to the right to fend off a primary challenge, Toomey withdraws the threat of a primary challenge to let Specter move back towards the middle - and thereby tricks him into opening up a space for Toomey to move in on the hard right late in the game and make a loud shrill noise about how Specter has shown his true colors, when it's too late for Specter to do anything about it.

    My guess, though, is that Toomey decides to stick it out for PA governor, rather than pull a stunt like that one.

  • It looks like a recognition of the media narrative being formed and an attempt to head it off; Hillary knows perfectly well that a 50% + 1 margin might get her the primary, but would do the party severe enough harm to potentially lose her the general. It's a smart move and it's the thing that a lot of people needed to hear. I went into Super Tuesday undecided and finally went with Obama, but it was a narrow thing. I've been disappointed with Hillary's tactics the last few weeks, and I'm glad to see she's acknowledging the importance of party unity now. It wasn't going to keep me home, much less make me vote for McCain, but I'll be much more motivated if the eventual nominee has been actively working to advance the party rather than solely h{er|im}self.

  • This is what I've been waiting for! All right, Jeanne! Moderate progressive she might be, but I'll put it like this - she's liable to have greater staying power in New Hampshire's libertarian-friendly environment than someone to the left, in the long run, and she's certainly going to be better than a LieberDem!

  • on a comment on Tentative 2008 Target List over 7 years ago
    Lynch isn't going to run. Or, at least, before Tuesday's landslide he wasn't going to. Now? There's no telling if any rethinking went on. But I suspect Shaheen will want to take another shot at Sununu, given his mediocre poll numbers and New Hampshire's dramatic sea change. Bear in mind, too, that she nearly beat him despite being in the immediate pro-Republican aftermath of 9/11.
    That said, I think Lynch would win handily if he did decide to go for it - but I doubt he'll be willing to delve into the muck of Washington. He's got a clear conscience; I doubt he'd enjoy the city.
  • But the flipside of that is that those states with growing populations are also the states with growing minority populations - both in absolute terms and in percentage of population. It may be true that Southern states will gain seats, but if the gerrymandering can be kept down, then those seats will be more likely to be blue. If Republicans are forced out of the northeastern US, they'll be faced with a decreasingly solid South and an increasing level of crazy required to win their own primaries. At least, that's the counter to the demographic question.

  • comment on a post If football was like the Bush Administration over 8 years ago

    It is un-American to defeat the Patriots. Ask any fan. Not to mention hard - it took twelve Broncos and a couple of zebras last time. ;-)

  • comment on a post Cillizza Misses a "House Race to Watch" over 8 years ago
    In New Hampshire, Bradley is not looking to be in a terrible fight for his life. He's in the more Republican district in the first place, and he won a great deal of positive press for returning money he got from Tom DeLay. The current NH governor (the extremely popular John Lynch) has ethics as a signature issue, so by making an open pre-emptively ethical move, Bradley intelligently ensured that Lynch and the NHDP would be unable to use his greatest strength to help a challenger against Bradley. He'll have challengers, but would probably have to run a very poor campaign against a smart Democratic campaign to lose.

    Bass is somewhat more interesting. He refused calls to match Bradley's return of DeLay money, and that could hurt him. He also voted in favor of the mtBe bill, which was an extremely unpopular bill in NH; his stated reason was to get on the conference committee, but that failed badly. His challenger from last time, Paul Hodes, is running again, and others have started exploring the idea. Hodes' increased name recognition could give him a better shot this time around; he finished last time with a good chunk of people still not knowing who he was. Bass' reputation as a moderate has been under attack, with Democrats reminding everyone at every opportunity that Bass votes about 90% of the time with Tom DeLay.

    I wouldn't put either of these seats into a top ten list. Bass would definitely be somewhere in the top thirty, and Bradley would be in the top 100. Even with the expected long coattails from the extremely-popular Governor Lynch, though, it'll take a good challenger with a smart campaign.

    Highlights of Lynch's year in office so far: getting his agenda through a Republican-dominated legislature, expertly managing a flooding emergency, visibly demonstrating a commitment to bipartisanship by his nominations to various state posts (including state AG), and staying above the fray when in both the Senate and the House the moderate wing of the GOP rebelled, overthrowing the micro-DeLay leadership of both houses and replacing them with moderate Republicans with the support of a minority of Republicans and all the Democrats. He's also turned an expected $200 million deficit into an $80 million surplus and won fiscal-responsibility nods for putting it towards the depleted Rainy Day fund. The leading potential GOP contender, Bruce Keough, is looking more and more like he wants to sit the next cycle out, so Lynch will probably be facing a sacrificial lamb, leaving him free to support other Democrats in the state - but at best, his support would level the slight-GOP bias of the state in any Congressional races.

  • on a comment on Early VNS exit polling over 9 years ago
    ROTFL means 'Rolling On The Floor Laughing.'
    ROTFLMAO means 'Rolling On The Floor Laughing My Arse Off.'
    ROTMF means 'Rotting On The Morgue Floor' and is rarely used outside of conversations between zombies. ^_-
    'asdf' isn't an acronym at all - look at your keyboard. It's the first four letters of the traditional home row, used to fill a space that requires an entry but for which the typist doesn't want to put any data.
  • comment on a post Gov 2004 Outlook, Vermont : Douglas vs Clavelle over 9 years ago
    The Republican Governors' Association was served with a Cease And Desist order on 10/8, ordering them to not run ads in New Hampshire for state candidates, because they didn't register in NH as a PAC. They're running the ads anyhow. As the CaD order itself points out, this is open to felony prosecution. And this isn't the first time the RGA has broken the law - they've already been ordered to pay $200,000 elsewhere!

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