Numbers from Election 2006. Possible 2008 targets

Originally posted at dKos

The Green Papers has a huge table of election info here.

Here's some info from that table:

The Dems won the House Popular vote 52/46.

And Under the Fold, I'll go over the club of candidates who didn't spend $100K but still got over 40% of the vote.

As well, a few big spenders, third party all-stars, and hapless Republicans will be noted.

And i'll produce a short targets list too.

There's more...

The 9/6 House Poll: Digging into the numbers

Basically, i'll be going over the candidates who had the highest percentages of their totals come from committed voters. Also, i'll note which candidates have the biggest leads with Independents. And which samples look the weirdest to me.

First off, the Republicans whose total percentage includes the most weak voters

CT-2 (Simmons) has 30% strong support, with 16% weak.

Let me give you the partisan split for CT-2 and then we'll go under the fold.

Republicans: 60% Strong Simmons, 24% Weak Simmons, 2% Undecided, 4% Weak Courtney, 9% Strong Courtney (84-13)
Democrats: 9% Strong Simmons, 11% Weak Simmons, 5% Undecided, 14% Weak Courtney, 61% Strong Courtney (20-75)
Independents: 33% Strong Simmons, 15% Weak Simmons, 2% Undecided, 14% Weak Courtney, 36% Strong Courtney (48-50)

Basically Courtney has a good advantage, especially with this sample (which is probably slightly too blue to be realistic). But, there's a lot of Democrats who should jump back to our side given the right push.

Let's go under the fold.

There's more...

Well, maybe 433 instead of 434

It turns out that we got a lot of candidates in the 1st, and not one candidate in the 3rd.

Well, that's progress (sort of) over 2004, where neither Wicker or Pickering was opposed.

So, here's the lineup of Democrats running in the 1st district:

Mississippi's other Republican congressman, U.S. Rep. Roger Wicker, doesn't have an opponent in the GOP primary. His Democratic challengers are Joe Forsythe, a retired industrial mechanic from Horn Lake; Columbus attorney William Bambach; Ken Hurt, a political consultant from Verona; and Oxford businessman Ron Shapiro.

More over the fold

There's more...

48 Unopposed Republicans

This will be a "quick and dirty" diary since i'm going to school around 10:30am.

I usually post these diaries on DailyKos, but I figure there's another good audience here to give out any tips or rumors

There's more...


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