Today's Polls-amazing insight!

Gallup tracking shows a 5 point swing in two days-my best guess is that there was a one day outier that is affecting the results-we shall find out in two days. Diageo, on the other hand, has Obama ahead by 4 in the just listed poll. What is utterly amazing is that Obama leads a poll where the respondents stated that they voted for Bush over Kerry 48-35. In other words in a poll that is slanted +10 R, Obama leads by 4. I also must wonder if there is something wrong with this poll; but even if the slant is half of what is listed you may be seeing the beginning of the end of the Bush/McCain regime.    

Tags: Diageo, gallup (all tags)

Comments

17 Comments

Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!

Which poll has Obama ahead in Oklahoma?

by Bobby Obama 2008-08-26 09:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!

A mistake of some kind - maybe the map gets updated in a way whereby Oklahoma accidentally went blue along with its alphabetical neighbor Ohio.  My eyes boggled when I saw Oklahoma go blue this morning, but that has been corrected.

by robitude 2008-08-26 10:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!

Gallup , Pew are the most widely respected national polls in my view....

by lori 2008-08-26 09:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!

Diageo is a very highly rated outfit. Pew leans D-Gallup rates above average but it is because their polls go all over the place and their average is around the middle- personally- I consider them reliable only one month out of the election when they adjust their swings.

by RAULC 2008-08-26 09:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!

No way! Zogby online interactive 4eva!!

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-08-26 09:53AM | 0 recs
any evidence?

by Al Rodgers 2008-08-26 11:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!
Lori,
I don't have time to look this up now, but both http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ and pollster.com have done rigorous analyses to determine which polling operations have done the best job in the past.  I can't recall precisely, but I believe Gallup was not in the top tier. Furthermore, Moore over at Pollster recently did a careful analysis of the Gallup tracking poll and found that is figures were consistently below the nontrackers.
by politicsmatters 2008-08-26 11:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!

It is a little troubling that Rasmussen and Gallup are now showing a significant dip (since they reinforce one another), but hopefully it's temporary if the remaining nights of the convention are strong.

by rfahey22 2008-08-26 10:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!

Yup, and the pundits reinforce it, and we go round and round and round....

Not sure if I am counting on a big bounce from the convention.

This has been one of the most covered races ever, and I think people are already engaged, just not sure if 4 days of convention will change it a lot.

Never thought this would be a blow-out, expect to be watching at 3AM for the numbers from Colorado to finally come in...

by WashStateBlue 2008-08-26 10:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!

You are so right.  The real issue isnt the polls but the talking heads who push the bs narrative of "Why is BO polls going down" when the fact is he is still slightly ahead and has really only be slightly ahead since June.

david

by giusd 2008-08-26 10:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!

None of that matters. Most people don't pay attention to polls anyway. Frankly, I don't think they ever have. In 1936, the most well known "poll" (in parentheses because it didn't use random sampling), the Literary Digest poll predicted a huge Roosevelt loss and he had a huge win. There is no bandwagon effect.

by politicsmatters 2008-08-26 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!

For the very first time McCain comes out ahead in Gallup today.

The Clinton supporters who always assumed she would be BO's choice for VP are registering their displeasure with the ticket. Looks like a negative bounce for the VP announcement.

by 07rescue 2008-08-26 10:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!

That could be true. On the other hand, it could be a single outlier throwing off the tracker.

by politicsmatters 2008-08-26 11:29AM | 0 recs
gallup has M46-O44
for a first time (and cleanly after Biden choice), McCain is ahead:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup -Daily-Bounce-Obama-Post-Biden-Tracking. aspx
by engels 2008-08-26 11:48AM | 0 recs
Re: gallup has M46-O44

Yep - That's what the diary said.

by politicsmatters 2008-08-26 12:02PM | 0 recs
Rasmussen has it tied, 46-46%

Most of these polls indicate that since the choice of Joe Biden, we have actually lost ground. Buyer's remorse, anyone?

by BJJ Fighter 2008-08-26 12:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight!

Well, clearly the choice of Biden as VP has had a temporary adverse effect. Obama will likely get a small bounce after the convention. The thing is, the Republicans are counting on disgruntled Clinton supporters to win. Do you really think the level of Clinton supporters who will not vote or vote for McCain will stay at these high levels? I don't. Two months is a very long time in politics.

by RJEvans 2008-08-26 12:22PM | 0 recs

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