For the last two weeks, we all heard about the mythical internal poll giving Barack Obama a mere two-point lead. However, a new post by Marc Ambinder SHATTERS the myth just 10 days before the election.

The scheduling reflects McCain's tough electoral math. With some -- though by no means all -- advisers all but conceding Colorado, McCain would be forced to win a blue state in order to recoup the electoral votes. New Hampshire wouldn't give him enough, and Pennsylvania, the McCain campaign believes, is the most brittle of the remaining states. Public and private polls give Obama a double digit lead in the state, but McCain advisers believe that Obama is underperforming in the suburbs and exurban counties around Pittsburgh. Tensions between the two campaigns in the state is acute.

This gives us no reason to breath easy about PA or any state as we still have ten days to go before this is over. What also remains to be seen is what, if any, impact the "B Hoax" will have on Pittsburgh-area voters. However, I have one question. If Obama is underperforming in the greater Pitt area, where is he OVERperforming to give him a double-digit lead?

Tags: Pennsylvania (all tags)



Obama is heavily overperfoming

in two regions from what I have seen here in PA.

The biggest is the Philly metro area, particularly the suburbs, where he is doing much better than Kerry in the region.

The other area is the South Central area, the area from York to Harrisburg to Lancaster.  The reason for this could be that this is traditionally an anti-war Republican area.

by ClintoniteNoLonger4McCain 2008-10-25 08:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama is heavily overperfoming

Is this due to Amish/Menonite/Quaker influences in that region?

by gavoter 2008-10-26 07:46AM | 0 recs
The reason not to breathe easy is...

...that candidate visits WORK.  They move numbers......where they CAN.

They don't work for McCain in Iowa because Iowa is solid Obama, the folks of my home state (God bless 'em, and I say that as an Iowa-bred son of immigrants from India who knows how much more liberal they are than people of their demographic should be) are not persuadable from their committed Obama vote.

McCain's visits certainly haven't worked in Pennsylvania, either, or he'd have closed some already.

But state Dems there are nervous, and that's enough to make me nervous.  Which is also why if Obama wins by 15 there I'll be pissed at PA Dem leaders for needless hand-wringing that caused us all anxiety over nothing.

by DCCyclone 2008-10-25 08:27PM | 0 recs
Re: The reason not to breathe easy is...

As the poster above stated, the problem is Obama is overperforming in Philly and the surrounding suburbs which is why he has a double digit lead.  McCain is going to the wrong areas. He's going after votes that don't exist since the Philly area makes up 40% of the state.  One should be asking why he isn't going to the Philly suburbs which are where the moderate Republicans are and which is where he needs to keep Obama's numbers down to win the state.

My guess is that McCain knows that he has lost and if he pulls out of PA it will severely depress turnout for down ticket Reps.

by sweet potato pie 2008-10-25 08:40PM | 0 recs
Re: The reason not to breathe easy is...

Dems everywhere should be nervous

I got two calls today from McCain and one house visit.  

Keep working.

by gil44 2008-10-25 09:13PM | 0 recs
Re: The reason not to breathe easy is...

This is why we lose. We are too pessimistic and aren't willing to fight for our win.

Do you see the Redstaters talking about how they are worried when they are the ones that are 9 points down?

Stop showing weakness dems!!

by sweet potato pie 2008-10-25 09:33PM | 0 recs
Re: PA: PRIVATE Polls Give Obama DOUBLE-DIGIT Lead

McCain is serously underperforming in the Philly suburbs.  He is going to get absolutely crushed out here.  Practically everyone I know, Republican or Democrat, liberal, moderate, or conservative, is voting Obama and the overwhelming reason (at least for the people who normally would not vote Democratic) is Sarah Palin.  Simply put, she lost McCain any shot at PA (or NJ, which was an even longer long shot from the start...).

by NJIndependent 2008-10-26 05:01AM | 0 recs

Palin killed McCain in the Philly suburbs and the state as a whole.

by elrod 2008-10-26 05:24AM | 0 recs


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