DMR Iowa poll: Sky falling for Edwards supporters?

Does the latest DMR poll of Iowa spell gloom and doom for John Edwards? Some have gleefully declared today that it does. The results were as follows for the top three contenders:

29% Hillary Clinton
23% John Edwards
22% Barack Obama

399 LVs, October 1-3, MoE +/- 4.9%

Edwards lost 6 points, Obama lost 1 point and Hillary gained 8 points since their last poll in May. With the margin of error this is clearly still a tight race, especially so when you consider that even in vaunted Iowa most people really haven't made their mind up yet. But it's the methodology and age break down that is of key importance. Follow over the flip for more.

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Gore rules out running in '08 (w/ poll)

Seems that those hoping that Gore would jump into the race in September as has been whispered about will have to look elsewhere for a candidate to back in the 2008 democratic primary.

According to this article from AFP:


"I have no intention to run for president," Gore said in an interview conducted in Los Angeles and broadcast Thursday by the BBC.

"I can't imagine in any circumstance to run for office again," said the former Democratic vice president...

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Washington: ballot issue for repeal of gay rights law

From SeattlePI: Signatures filed to repeal Washington gay rights law


Two weeks ago, Eyman reported that volunteers had gathered 30,755 signatures, a far cry from the 112,440 needed by Tuesday's deadline to get the measure on the ballot this fall.

Despite the sluggish response at first, Eyman had been counting on a surge last week following "Referendum Sunday" in which a network of evangelical churches decried the gay-rights law during services, then passed out petitions.

If Eyman has gathered enough signatures, Referendum 65 would appear on the November ballot and Washington voters would approve or reject the law passed this year by the Legislature that outlaws discrimination based on sexual orientation in employment, housing and lending.

Nice to see the religious right can be counted on to deliver in a crunch.

More after the break.

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Iraq PM accuses US of daily attacks on civilians

Now that the Iraqi Prime Minister is accusing US forces of "daily attacks" on Iraqi civilians does anyone still think that everything is going just great over there in Iraq?

From NYTimes: Iraqi Accuses U.S. of 'Daily' Attacks Against Civilians

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Colin Powell: Iraq could break into civil war. Iran won't see military action.

Sorry, no link but Colin Powell has just said on Leno (yes I know it was filmed hours earlier) that while he believes it would be premature to say that a civil war has already erupted in Iraq that it could easily break out into civil war if the fractions don't calm down.

He also said that he doesn't expect to see military action regarding Iran and he played down concerns about the UAE port deal.

More after the jump

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Greenspan's 3rd party prediction likely to hurt progressive efforts

Thanks to  TDGoddard's PoliticalWire and his posting on breakingblue--and the WSJ for originally carrying the story-- on Greenspan's prediction of the rise of a third party because:


"the two American parties now as controlled by their extreme wings, even though the voting public is far more centrist... He described the leadership of the parties as 'bimodal', meaning clustered at the extreme ideological ends, whereas the voting public was 'monomodal', meaning clustered near the middle."

"Such situations, he said, create an opening for a third-party candidate who appeals to the center. That, he said, could prompt the candidates of the other two parties to move back to the center, for fear of losing. He said the U.S. political system makes it difficult for a third-party candidate to win."

More after the jump

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Bush gives in on aid to Louisiana

Bush to ask Congress to give Louisiana $4.2 billion more in aid according to NYT - http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/16/politi cs/16aid.html


The money will come from $18 billion that the administration said last month it would request from Congress this year for hurricane relief.

The announcement was praised by Louisiana officials who said that the $4.2 billion, when added to $7.7 billion in rebuilding money approved by Congress last year, would be enough to help anyone in the state who owned a storm-wrecked home.

"I am here to say a special thank you to the president," said Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco, who flew in for a news conference at the Capitol. Ms. Blanco, a Democrat, had criticized the White House for falling short of President Bush's pledge to "do what it takes" to reconstruct New Orleans.

The $4.2 billion request was a turnabout for the administration, which three weeks ago rejected legislation proposed by Representative Richard H. Baker, a Louisiana Republican, to create a nonprofit group to buy out flooded homes, the plan favored by Ms. Blanco.

Louisiana officials had also complained that Congress had shortchanged the state in a $29 billion relief package in December that gave $5.2 billion in housing reconstruction money to Mississippi, which suffered far less damage than Louisiana but which has a Republican governor and two Republican senators.

Last week, Ms. Blanco threatened to try to block a federal sale of oil and gas leases off the Gulf Coast, saying it was "time to play hardball." But in the past week, state officials said, Donald E. Powell, the president's coordinator for Gulf Coast rebuilding, became convinced that the federal government should do more to help homeowners in the flood plain who did not have flood insurance.

Good to see Democrats playing hardball and holding Republican's feet to the fire like this.

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Why Senator Landrieu isn't onboard with a filibuster of Alito?

Senator Landrieu has said she's against a filibuster of Alito. Taken from her senate website (http://landrieu.senate.gov/scotus/alito2 .cfm):


Because we have such a full plate of pressing issues before Congress, a filibuster at this time would be, in my view, very counterproductive. It is imperative that we remain focused on creating the tools New Orleans, Louisiana and the Gulf Coast will need to rebuild. This includes passing the Baker bill and allowing our state to keep its fair share of offshore energy revenues. We simply cannot afford to bring the Senate to a halt at a time when we need its action the most. If called to vote for cloture on Judge Alito's nomination, I will vote yes.

The Washington Post has an article entitled "New Orleans May Lose 80 Percent of Blacks" that says a lot about why. She's trying to save her bacon.

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2006/01/27/AR2006012700678. html)


New Orleans May Lose 80 Percent of Blacks

The city of New Orleans could lose up to 80 percent of its black population if people displaced by Hurricane Katrina are not able to return to damaged neighborhoods, according to an analysis by a Brown University sociologist.

Professor John R. Logan, in findings released Thursday, determined that if the city's returning population was limited to neighborhoods undamaged by Katrina, half of the white population would not return and 80 percent of the black population would not return.

"There's very good reason for people to be concerned that the future New Orleans will not be a place for the people who used to live there, that there won't be room in New Orleans for large segments of the population that used to call it home," said Logan, who studies urban areas.

The study used maps from the Federal Emergency Management Agency that detailed flood and wind damage and compared them to data from the 2000 U.S. Census to determine who and what areas were affected.

It found the storm-damaged areas had been 75 percent black, compared to 46 percent black in undamaged areas of the city. It also found that 29 percent of the households in damaged areas lived below the poverty line, compared with 24 percent of households in undamaged areas.

More than half of those who lived in the city's damaged neighborhoods were renters, the analysis found.

"The odds of living in a damaged area were clearly much greater for blacks, renters and poor people," the study said. "In these respects the most vulnerable residents turned out also to be at greatest risk."

Elliott Stonecipher, a demographer and political analyst based in Shreveport, La., said the analysis gets to the heart of the debate over how to rebuild New Orleans. Racial tensions have been high with some worried that those in charge of the rebuilding will push black residents out of the city.

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Bush nominates Abramoff prosocuter to federal judgeship

According to a NYT article (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/27/politi cs/27judge.html) President Bush, in yet another example of the Republican party's dirty tricks, has nominated the chief prosecutor on the Jack Abramoff case to a federal judgeship. Democratics are understandably up in arms and demanding a special prosecutor to be appointed; Republicans aren't at all keen on the idea.

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