Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

The final Zogby polls are out. Most surprisingly, Zogby gives Obama a 13-point lead in California. Clinton has the lead now in NJ.

In California, which alone provides more than one-fifth of the Democratic delegates needed for the nomination, Obama led Clinton by 49 percent to 36 percent, the poll found. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

Clinton pulled into a 5-point lead in New Jersey, 46 percent to 41 percent, after being tied on Monday. Obama held a 45 percent to 42 percent edge on Clinton in Missouri. Both polls had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

Obama had a 20-point edge in Georgia, aided by a more than 3-to-1 lead among black voters.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080205/t pl-uk-usa-politics-poll-20b2d2f.html

Could it have been the Shriver endorsement or is Zogby just a terrible pollster? More than anything, it's the momentum that is amazing. We'll see if it holds up tomorrow. If Obama can pull out wins in Missouri and California, it's definitely going to be a big day for his campaign though.

I also want to add in hopefully we can settle the debate on whether Zogby is good or bad tomorrow. I personally think he's been the best this season, particularly in showing late momentum. For this reason, I think Obama wins California.

Tags: polls (all tags)

Comments

45 Comments

Re: Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

YES WE CAN!

by A from Phoenix 2008-02-04 08:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Yayyyyyy. yes we will!!! Thanks for a good diary

by Jr1886 2008-02-04 08:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

If we win California, Obama will run the table. NJ is must win for her so who cares she's leading.

by Jr1886 2008-02-04 08:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Damn. Two polls with very contradicting results. It could be the Shriver endorsement. Either, 1) it inflated the results, or 2) the endorsement changed minds.

by RJEvans 2008-02-04 08:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

The polls have varying methodologies. It seems SUSA was oversampling Hispanics, but maybe Zogby has been undersampling women. I have to believe a 13-point lead couldn't be so wrong though. It's probably the endorsement. I think that event really helped with women.

by Progressive America 2008-02-04 08:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

I just can't imagine the Shriver endorsement would have any pull.  This "First Lady of California" is a bunch of bull- she's been practically invisible since Arnold took office- she hasn't been in the spotlight for years.  

by reasonwarrior 2008-02-05 09:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Hmm. Zogby has Obama up. ARG has Clinton up.

Hard as it may be to believe, one of them will actually be right tomorrow.

by OrangeFur 2008-02-04 08:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

MoveOn has now sent the Yes We Can video to 358,644 people.

by Piuma 2008-02-04 08:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

I guess no one knows what is going to happen in CA today.

Survey USA: Clinton +12
Zogby: Obama +13

I am inclined to give Obama the edge though, due to his momentum going into this thing.

by RJEvans 2008-02-04 08:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Wow, I didn't realize SUSA gave her a 12 point lead. How can two polls be so different?

by Progressive America 2008-02-04 08:37PM | 0 recs
Zogby = Worst Pollster Ever

B/c Zogby is widely known as being incredibly inaccurate and uses bizarre methodology when reaching his "conclusion".  Never mind the fact that he was positively orgasmic on Ed Schulz' show exclaiming, "WE'RE catching up to Hillary!"... Twice.   He's a partisan and he betrayed his allegiance to Obama.  

So much for credibility.

SUSA is much more accurate and everyone knows it.

by votethegopout 2008-02-04 08:43PM | 0 recs
Really?

Are you sure? Because even Survey USA's own report card for pollsters this primary season has Zogby, who has polled significantly more races, as solidly more accurate.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/ 02/04/2008-pollster-report-card-through- 020408/

by Hadi 2008-02-04 08:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby = Worst Pollster Ever

Do you have a link for that?

by OrangeFur 2008-02-04 09:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Susa's final poll just out was 52-42 Clinton.

I believe Zogby because this primary season they have been right on the money.

The difference has to be due to the turn-out model's being used by each pollster.

by BDM 2008-02-04 10:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Read about Zogby. He's wrong more than right. He said Kerry was going to win in 2004. He said Hillary was going to lose the NY Senate race in 2000. He has a bad record. For all it's faults, Survey USA has a better record.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-05 02:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Now SUSA only has Hillary up by 10.

by Progressive America 2008-02-04 09:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Only?

by RJEvans 2008-02-05 05:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Even Survey USA's own tracking of pollster results thus far this season shows that Zogby's track record is actually quite good (the best of those who have polled nearly every contest), and solidly better than Survey USA. Zogby's tracking polls nailed the Democratic results and order in Iowa (nailed the Obama margin and Edwards finishing second), Nevada (perfect poll showing a 6 point Clinton win and Edwards in single digits), and South Carolina (nailed Clinton and Edwards numbers here and underpolled Obama's numbers). He was off in New Hampshire, but so was every other pollster.

The fact he has this race so far outside the margin of error tells me there is a serious chance Barack could win in California tomorrow. If Obama wins Missouri and California tomorrow, plus the other states he's expected to win (a new poll released tonight by a local Fox affiliate and Rasmussen had him now leading Clinton in Minnesota by 2 points too), he is going to be in great shape. I can't imagine the cash infusion he'd get if he were to win more than 12 states plus California.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/ 02/04/2008-pollster-report-card-through- 020408/

by Hadi 2008-02-04 08:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Thanks Hadi, a lot of people here make statement with no facts to back them up. Let's see how he responds to that undeniable fact.

Survey USA in all their Survey this cycle has under-polled obama and over-polled Hillary. So, I would tend to trust Zogby more on this as they are much closer to other polls out of CA lately. The race is still fluid as Obama is below the 50% magic

by Jr1886 2008-02-04 08:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

No problem JR. I don't post much here anymore, but sometimes, you have to set the record straight when people make claims without any evidence.  

Also, since I know you are one of the few Obama supporters around here, I thought I'd let you and the few others know that I went to the Chicago headquarters tonight and there was a MASSIVE line of volunteers there (many older Democrats to boot) waiting to get a chance to phonebank, etc. The weather in Chicago was terrible tonight too, which shows the enthusiasm Barack is still generating at this late hour.

by Hadi 2008-02-04 09:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

I've tried to point out over and over again that even in NH, Zogby showed the late momentum for Hillary. He pretty much had all the other states nailed pretty good.

by Progressive America 2008-02-04 09:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Zogby been pretty good this cycle and anyone who's not willing to say that is in serious denial.

Good to hear these good news Hadi. I think we might pull CA and that could be a game changer. We down here in FL been volunteering in Georgia and it looks pretty solid down here

by Jr1886 2008-02-04 09:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

It's also important to add that Zogby nailed the Republican race in Florida. His last tracking poll had McCain at 35 and Romney at 31. The reason this is significant is because Florida is the only state so far that has had a massive pre-election day vote, which is significant considering how much hype there has been about California's absentee voters.

by Hadi 2008-02-04 09:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Good point, I think Zogby has been excellent.

by Progressive America 2008-02-04 09:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

According to that chart, none of the pollsters who have tried any number of states has done well.

Zogby has done nine contests, and missed by ten or more points three times. He averages a six point miss. That might be better than others, but that's still pretty bad.

by OrangeFur 2008-02-04 09:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

The wackiness of New Hampshire is why his average is higher than it should be. He absolutely nailed Iowa and got the Obama-Edwards-Clinton finish right, plus Obama's final margin almost exactly right. In Nevada (a very tough state to poll), it was scary how accurate his last tracking poll was. He had Clinton ahead by 6 and Edwards in the single digits, which came true. In South Carolina, he nailed Clinton and Edwards' numbers but missed Obama's just like every other pollster (though he still had him at 41 percent).

His most recent poll of Florida Republicans was also spot on, with McCain at 35 and Romney at 31.

Now that's not to say his polls will be proven tomorrow (I think California and Missouri will be very close), but he has earned a bit more credibility than people will acknowledge.

by Hadi 2008-02-04 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Oh, please.  We were all here to read this stuff.  The final NH Zogby poll was way off.  It was only after the results came in that Zogby and Rasmussen claimed that their last-day poll showed movement towards Clinton, although their final published poll on the day of the primary was way off.   Looked like an attempt at damage control from both Zogby and Rasmussen.  

I think Zogby will be exposed tomorrow.  Clinton will win CA with a result closer to the S-USA numbers, IMO.  

by georgep 2008-02-04 09:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Geprge:

Your prediction for IA was a Clinton win by 1 pt Obama BEAT cLINTON BY 9 PTS

You predicted Clinton would be within 5-8 pts of Obama IN sc. Obama crushed her by 28 pts.

Obama this primary season out performs the poll's and Clinton under performs the poll's except for NH.

wE SHALL SEE.

by BDM 2008-02-04 10:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

I stated that Clinton might win by 1% in Iowa, but that I would not be at all surprised to see Obama win.   You are falsifying my predicton here, which is very bad form.

BTW. I have seen your prediction for NH, and you were WAY off. Same with NV.  

We shall see, but one thing I find laughable (hope against reason probably factoring in here) is the thought that Obama will win the women vote in Cali.  You will be once again proven wrong, IMO.  

by georgep 2008-02-04 10:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Survey USA in all their Survey this cycle has under-polled obama and over-polled Hillary.

What's your proof for this? So far as I can tell, Survey USA didn't even poll in Iowa or Nevada, did a couple of polls early in the cycle in New Hampshire, and came pretty close to nailing the Clinton/Obama numbers in Florida (52/28 in their last poll vs. 50/33 in actual voting). In South Carolina - the one state where you can do a head-to-head comparison between Zogby and SUSA on the Democratic side - they were a couple of points closer to Obama's final number and within the margin of error on Clinton's. That isn't nearly enough evidence to claim that they have a pattern of underpolling Obama & overpolling Clinton.

by Shawn 2008-02-04 09:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

There is NO WAY he wins CA by 13 points and not sweep everything. Maria Shriver does not have that much sway over DEM voters. Zogby is generally quite inaccurate.

by bayareasg 2008-02-04 08:47PM | 0 recs
Actually

She has a much bigger sway than you'd think.  As a California I can say with at least some certainty that without her Ahnold would not be governor right now.  She is very popular with Hillary's key demographic:  white, middle-aged women.  I don't think Obama's lead is this big but I do think her endorsement helped.

Remember indies can vote in the Dem primary but NOT the Republican primary.  That could really help Obama (and crush McCain).

by jkfp2004 2008-02-04 08:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Actually

OK lets see tomorrow but never has endorsements moved 15 points for someone. BTW this poll is a 2 day average only and one of the days is Sunday.

by bayareasg 2008-02-04 09:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Actually

zOGBY'S POLL IS A 3 DAY ROLLING AVERAGE. sUNDAY'S POLL SHOWED A 6 PT LEAD AND THIS POLL SHOWS A 13 PT LEAD.

by BDM 2008-02-04 10:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Actually

I'm also in California, and I doubt very much her own popularity had anything to do with him getting to be governor. She might have helped him get re-elected by knocking some sense into him in 2005, but that's it.

by OrangeFur 2008-02-04 09:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Internals Can you believe

Obama has built a sturdy lead here, among both Democrats and independents. He leads Clinton big among both men (55% to her 29%) and women (45% to her 42%). He leads among all age groups except among those age 65 and older, where Clinton holds a slim edge. He leads among both moderates and progressives, but those mainline liberal Democrats still favor Clinton by a very narrow margin. This two-day tracking survey included 895 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Clinton is getting only 30% of men if thats true she can start writing her concession speech today!

by bayareasg 2008-02-04 09:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Internals Can you believe

Pollster John Zogby: "In California, we have Obama polling into a 13-point lead. Monday was another big single day of polling for him there. What has happened here is that in addition to building leads among almost every part of his base of support, he has dramatically cut into Clinton's lead among Hispanic voters.

Obama cuts into Hill leads among Hispanics drastically. That must be good news for Obama and clearly Teddy is a big part of that.

Primer: Don't be too surprised if Obama wins big in CA. Hispanics are known to change their mind very quickly and Obama getting some of their support might be responsible for this big lead.

by Jr1886 2008-02-04 09:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Internals Can you believe

Hispanics are known to change their mind very quickly...

Uh...what?

by Shawn 2008-02-04 09:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Internals Can you believe

Hispanic's have not been that reliable of a group in voting compared to AA.

by BDM 2008-02-04 10:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

Sad that the woman who lays down with Ahnuld every night has that much pull with Democratic voters

by rossinatl 2008-02-04 09:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

I think it's safe to say that California is anyone's ball game...

I voted for Obama in the primary, but I think Clinton will win by 3-5.

by tom32182 2008-02-04 09:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

This Zogby poll looks like garbage.  Anyone who believes that Obama is going to win the women vote in Cali is off their rocker.  

by georgep 2008-02-04 10:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

aND YOUR PREDICTIONS HAVE BEEN SO RIGHT THIS PRIMARY SEASON

by BDM 2008-02-04 10:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

THAT IS BEYOND CHILDISH.  i HAVE SEEN YOUR PREDICTIONS FOR nh AND nv, AND TO SAY THEY WERE TOTALLY WRONG IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT.  mY PREDICTIONS WREE MUCH MORE REALISTIC, TRUTH BE TOLD.  

Note: I wanted to use BDM's typical style of YELLING INTO SOMEONE ELSES POST for a change.  I found nothing liberating about the loud experience.  To each his own, I suppose.  

by georgep 2008-02-04 10:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Final Zogby Polls: Obama Leads Cali Big

No use fighting about this- we'll know by the end of the day.

by reasonwarrior 2008-02-05 09:11AM | 0 recs

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