With all due respect to Jerome, to me Stoller and Bowers were mydd, so the loss is huge.
What I like best about mydd is detailed, data-based voting analysis. That's where I think the strength is and where it should continue. That's what differentiates mydd from dkos, FDL, or TPM. Trying to make mydd more like any of those sites seems like a quick way to obscurity.
Actually, I went to the realclearpolitics page and did the calculations myself. Formed the uncertainty-weighted-average of the Iowa poll results (using binomial uncertainties) and looked for the chi-squared of the fit to three averages for clinton, obama, and edwards. For this last I used the data-measured correlations. The result is a chi-squared of 45 for 12 dof, which is essentially a statement that: these polls are not statistically consistent. The ARG is clearly an outlier of the group; if you remove it, the chi-squared is 26 for 9 dof, which is merely "nearly impossible" rather than flat-out impossible.
Incidentally, the measured correlations are
The uncertainties on the correlations are large (probably 50% or so), so don't take them too seriously. They are actually quite surprising if taken seriously.
Caveat averagor: when the chi-square is telling you the polls are not statistically consistent, tread carefully in averaging.
Overall, the fluctuation we see between many early state polls is probably just as connected to a highly volatile early state electorate as it is to different methodologies.
There's also the simple fact that all the polls come with substantial statistical uncertainties. Is there any evidence the fluctuations are any larger than one would expect, given the uncertainties of the individual polls?
Let's imagine that the $2.5M federal loan is about 3 percentage points below what it would have been otherwise commerically--say a loan at 6% instead of 9%. The interest saved over the course of 5 years (though I imagine it's more likely a 10 year loan) is about $375,000.
That's a great return on the initial $1000 investment.
I can hardly complain about my alma mater getting in, but let's be honest--Drexel was robbed, and we probably got the last at-large spot. I'm sticking with the story that it was Purdue's fault that Syracuse was left out...
And what's with Po' Boys? Is this some new-fangled place, I grew up in C-U (yes, I was a townie) but left about 15 years ago...I've been told there are now some actual nice restaurants in town--is this one of them?
If you use IE you can simply highlight the table, then paste it directly into Excel, then Data->Sort. It can be re-exported (File->Save As) then as HTML. I just did this in under 2 minutes--the hardest part was that R+15 comes between R+1 and R+2 by the sort (which was pretty easy to fix.)
For Edwards: can you explan what you see as the risks of American military action against Iran? How do they compare, in probability and magnitude, to the probability and magnitude of risks of an Iranian nuclear program?
This whole US attorney massacre, with Lam among them, reminds me of the high school kid who goes to the drugstore to buy toothpaste, deodorant, chocolate, aspirin, socks, cough syrup, band-aids, and Playboy.
Actually, I think a similar effect is why New Hampshire has been changing into the Blue column the past few years. Home prices have been driving many Bostonians into New Hampshire, where prices are lower, but it is still close enough to commute.