### Predict here -- How close?

This is a different sort of prediction thread.  I won't ask what percentages the candidates will get in NC and IN, but where they will end up after Tuesday's elections in their delegate quests -- in particular, how close they will get to having a majority of pledged delegates and a majority of overall delegates.

Keep in mind that Indiana awards 72 delegates and North Carolina awards 115 delegates (not including superdelegates).

Pledged delegates
Barack Obama is 133 pledged delegates away from getting a majority of pledged delegates.
Hillary Clinton is 294 pledged delegates away from getting a majority of pledged delegates

Oveall delegates
Barack Obama is 285 delegates away from getting a majority of delegates.
Hillary Clinton is 416 delegates away from getting a majority of delegates.

Since the DNC currently does not include FL and MI, these figures don't either.  Feel free to post your predictions based on the above numbers and the ones with delegates from those states. http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/ fl-mi-by-numbers.html presents some interesting FL/MI scenarios.

##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

ah - the old 'math.'  v simple...

*if they split - we continue
*if BO wins both, calls for HRC to concede (sans the current calls to concede)
*if HRC wins both - wuh-oh.

by canadian gal 2008-05-05 07:18AM | 0 recs
##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

How many delegates do you think each will get and how close will it get them to the various magic numbers?

by politicsmatters 2008-05-05 07:19AM | 0 recs
##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

see - your question implies specific numbers are the story right now.  they are not. even as a HRC supporter, i am pretty much resigned that she will not catch BO in PLEDGED delegates.  so to me, if the scenarios play out as i said above, thats how the narrative changes.

by canadian gal 2008-05-05 07:24AM | 0 recs
##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

So you think that pledged delegates don't matter?

Hmmm....

by politicsmatters 2008-05-05 07:26AM | 0 recs
##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

pledged delegates matter of course.

BUT TOTAL DELEGATES is what decides the winner.

by canadian gal 2008-05-05 07:31AM | 0 recs
##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

I'm going to say Obama picks up 7 delegates today... He wins NC by a larger margin than most people think...and, Indiana is not all that close around 8 for Clinton.

On Fl and Mi they will be able to be sat in full once the Supers pledge to Obama.  That is why the DNC wants the Supers to pledge, so they know Mi and Fl won't overturn the election.

by cardboard 1 2008-05-05 07:19AM | 0 recs
##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

Let me clarify. I'm not asking how many they'll win compared to each other but how much each will be able to subtract from their current gaps from having a lead in pledged and overall delegates.

Even if you lose a race, you get delegates.  So both will certainly win delegates on Tuesday. How many and far away will they be from winning pledged and overall delegates?

by politicsmatters 2008-05-05 07:21AM | 0 recs
##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

Oh, Obama gets 97 Clinton gets 90

by cardboard 1 2008-05-05 07:27AM | 0 recs
##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

IN (based on a Clinton 55/45 win)
O - 32 delegates
C - 40

NC (based on an Obama 57/43 win)
O - 66 delegates
C - 49

Which puts the numbers at...
Obama needs 35
Clinton needs 205

by map 2008-05-05 07:26AM | 0 recs
##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

Obama 62 NC 34 IN total 96
Clinton 53 NC 38 IN total 90

Margins
Obama 55 NC IN 46
Clinton 45 NC IN 54

by jimotto 2008-05-05 07:28AM | 0 recs
##### Ultimately? Not Very Close

One of these two (probably Hillary at this point) will suspend their campaign before the convention.... and an overwhelming majority of that person's delegates will vote for the nominee.

by TooFolkGR 2008-05-05 07:29AM | 0 recs
##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

Obama picks up nothing more than 3 delegates in NC

Clinton picks up 2 in IN

+1 for Obama.

by lori 2008-05-05 07:39AM | 0 recs
##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

And where does that leave the gaps to get to the magic numbers of the majority of pledged and overall delegates?

by politicsmatters 2008-05-05 07:40AM | 0 recs
##### Re: Predict here -- How close?

about 40 for obama in NC 37 for clinton.

about 24 for clinton in indiana and 23 for obama

by lori 2008-05-05 07:41AM | 0 recs
##### My prediction

Split in Indiana 36 each.
Obama takes NC 60 Obama, 55 Clinton

Total 96 Obama, 91 Clinton

Remaining delegates needed after Tuesday:

Obama 285-96 = 189
Clinton 416-91 = 325

by GFORD 2008-05-05 08:06AM | 0 recs