Carville says Obama will win

James Carville, one of Bill Clinton's top strategists in 1992, an election where Clinton was in third behind Perot and Bush for awhile, says that Obama will win the election.  

In an interview with Greg Sargent
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsm emo.com/2008/05/carville_on_obama_i_thin k_he_w.php

Asked if he thought Obama would beat McCain, Carville said: "I think he will. I think Democrats will win in November...There's a crushing desire for change in this country. No one has seen a party or brand held in such low esteem" than the Republicans.

And what about those working class whites?  Well, for one thing, the composition of the electorate won't be the same as it was in 2004.

Asked about claims that Obama has a problem with non-college whites that could hamper his electability, Carville said that thanks to changes in the electorate, to win Obama merely has to match the performance of Kerry, who underperformed with that group.

"I would argue that if he gets what Kerry got he will still win the election, because the dynamics have changed," Carville said, pointing to likely larger turnout among young voters, African Americans and other demographic changes. Carville joked, however, that he'd be loath to see Obama fall below Kerry's performance.

Carville's analysis of the voting preferences of working class whites dovetails with another analysis of that bloc published today.

As Mark Mellman pointed out
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/29/opinio n/29mellman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&am p;oref=slogin

Democrats running for president have been losing white, non-college-educated voters since before Mr. Obama was elected to the Illinois legislature. Al Gore and Mr. Kerry each failed to win a majority of this bloc in the general election. With these voters, the size of the losing margin is what matters.

Mr. Gore lost them by 17 percentage points while winning the national popular vote. Mr. Kerry lost them by 23 points and the country by fewer than two and a half points. The last Democrat to win white, non-college voters was Bill Clinton, who carried them by a single point in the three-way races in 1992 and 1996.

By comparison, Mr. Obama is only two percentage points behind John McCain among these voters in the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. Another recent survey shows him down seven points.

In other words, Mr. Obama is faring better today with the white working class than did either Mr. Gore or Mr. Kerry.

And what about the argument that losing a state in the primary matters in November?  Mellman says

There is no relationship between how candidates perform among any particular group of voters in primaries and how they do with that segment in the general election. In 1992, Bill Clinton lost college-educated voters to Paul Tsongas in the early competitive primaries, but he went on to win that group in November by the largest margin any Democrat ever had. Similarly, John Kerry lost young voters in the competitive primaries in 2004 before going on to win them by a record margin in the general election.

Personally, I think that once Hillary Clinton endorses Obama, his numbers will go up.  And with Obama's phenomenal field operation, the turnout will be high among those who want to turn the page on the Bush administration and want to put a Democrat in the White House.

Tags: 2008 election, Barack Obama, James Carville (all tags)

Comments

37 Comments

Who will be the first to call Carville

a Judas?

Not me.

by bobdoleisevil 2008-05-29 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Who will be the first to call Carville

It would be fitting if it was Gov. Richardson!

by waldo 2008-05-29 02:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Who will be the first to call Carville

Okay, me.

JUDAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS SSSSSS!!!!!

by ReillyDiefenbach 2008-05-29 02:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

I don't think we'll have a problem beating McCain.  He's a horrible campaigner following in the footsteps of the worst President ever.

I do suggest you

learn to blockquote

by map 2008-05-29 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

Please tell me how!

Thanks, much.  :}

by politicsmatters 2008-05-29 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

<blockq0te>Like this!  But with o's instead of zeros</blockqu0te>

by Lawyerish 2008-05-29 02:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

Thanks again. It would be nice if this site didn't require that sort of thing.

by politicsmatters 2008-05-29 02:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

Then it would have orange borders.  Just kidding folks.

by ReillyDiefenbach 2008-05-29 02:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

Tangential, but I find all the Kos bashing rather lame.

People who live in glass houses (or who post on sometimes obnoxious sites) shouldn't throw stones.

by PhilFR 2008-05-29 02:54PM | 0 recs
Let 'em Kos bash

I like Kos too, but everybody needs something to bitch about every now and then. Kos seems like a better target for misplaced hate than a Democratic nominee.

by Djo Dos 2008-05-29 04:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

Hey, where is the cheat sheet on all those codes?

I need to improve the format of some of my posts, and it seems inefficient to have to ask someone every time.

Thanks!

by emptythreatsfarm 2008-05-29 04:04PM | 0 recs
to blockquote
use open bracket blockqoute  close bracket
then your quotation followed by bracket /blockqoute  close bracket
by molly bloom 2008-05-29 02:36PM | 0 recs
Re: to blockquote

I mean carrots as noted above. Not brackets.

Use brackets to link Urls.

bracket URl space bracket.

Long day

by molly bloom 2008-05-29 02:37PM | 0 recs
Re: to blockquote

or even <blockquote>quoted text</blockquote>

by semiquaver 2008-05-29 03:03PM | 0 recs
Re: to blockquote

Now that's HTML fluency!

by Shaun Appleby 2008-05-29 04:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

Tell em, Jimmy!

by zcflint05 2008-05-29 02:28PM | 0 recs
JUDAS to HILLARY!!!!

by slinkerwink 2008-05-29 02:28PM | 0 recs
How is Hillary going to win the nomination

like this.

If Hillary wants to win then she needs to gain supporters, not lose them.

O yeah, Hillary did pick up a super today, Obama only got two.

by Sam Wise Gingy 2008-05-29 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: How is Hillary going to win the nomination

What's hilarious is that this is one of the best days she's had in ages.

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-05-29 02:36PM | 0 recs
Re: How is Hillary going to win the nomination

Under current DNC rules

Obama needs 43 to clinch
Clinton needs 244 to clinch.

by politicsmatters 2008-05-29 02:49PM | 0 recs
Re: How is Hillary going to win the nomination

I just meant that she only fell behind by one more delegate today.

Usually it's worse than that.

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-05-29 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: How is Hillary going to win the nomination

Oh look, Obama leads by over 200, don't tell the Hillary and her supporters as it may make it more difficult for her to repay her campaign debt.

by Sam Wise Gingy 2008-05-29 03:01PM | 0 recs
He's rational

and he needs to be able to stay in the party's inner circles in order to keep his pundit's job :)

by Lost Thought 2008-05-29 02:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

He also said previously in early January pre Iowa that Clinton would win the nomination.

How did that work out for ya , James.

by lori 2008-05-29 02:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

I guess not so well.

by Lance Bryce 2008-05-29 02:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

Hey, I thought that, too, pre-Iowa. But once I saw him in first place and heard that speech in front of a lily white audience, I changed my mind.

by politicsmatters 2008-05-29 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

James Carville is a judas.  How dare he undermine Hillary like this?

Obama would barely win but Hillary would win the election big time.

Hillary already won 300 votes in the primary and she won the 2nd half.

by HillsMyGirl 2008-05-29 03:09PM | 0 recs
You're not fulling anybody.

Maybe you're amusing yourself?  Do you giggle uncontrollably and marvel at your brilliance when you are typing this garbage?

I'll have to check StudentGuy's diary on the psychology of trolls later.

by psychodrew 2008-05-29 03:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Is It?

Why is it that Clinton supporters act as though Republicans wouldn't throw the whole freakin' kitchen sink at Clinton, were she our nominee?  Don't you know that the quiet of the Right on this subject has been intended (a) to keep her viable, thereby lengthening the nomination battle, and (b)to build a false sense of security--on the outside chance she became the nominee--that the Right isn't prepared to dredge up every scandal, true or false.  

Clinton had a very good reason for saying that she had already been thoroughly vetted.  It doesn't mean it's true.  Even if it were true, it doesn't for a minute mean that the Right wouldn't bring all the old BS back in technicolor.

by deminva 2008-05-29 06:17PM | 0 recs
This is no Clintonista.

It's a troll.

by psychodrew 2008-05-29 07:24PM | 0 recs
He's not a Judas.

He's making an honest appraisal of Obama's chances.  If he's the nominee, Hillary will endorse him, she and Bill will campaign for him, and he will win the election.  There's no betrayal there.

by psychodrew 2008-05-29 03:24PM | 0 recs
Re: He's not a Judas.

Thank you - I wondered when someone was going to pick up on that. Listen to Carville very carefully.

by pan230oh 2008-05-29 05:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

This is undermining Clinton's rational from staying in this race.

Barack Obama is no George McGovern,Walter Mondale,or Michael Dukakis. He is not going to lose the election by a landslide margin

Both Obama and Clinton are equally electable in the General election against McCain.

by nkpolitics 2008-05-29 03:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

It may weaken her argument with the SD's but it doesn't undermine her rationale for staying in the race.  

There is no reason for her to quit when Obama hasn't reached the magic number.  When he does--and he'll most certainly do that on Tuesday--she'll concede and endorse him.  And we'll go on as one united party to make sure that the state of Arizona does not lose its senior senator.

by psychodrew 2008-05-29 03:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

What is it with all this "she won the second half stuff?" That's a very weak argument and in case you didn't know, the candidate that wins the 2,026 delegates is the one that gets the nomination (or whatever the number may be after decisions on MI/FL).

by mwb525 2008-05-29 03:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

he said he thinks so, and most would say that Hillary is a shoe in.  If he gets the nom he'd better win, or he'll have no more credibility. If there is something out there that would sink his ship, he'd better know that it won't come out in October. If he accepts the nomination he'd best not have any surprises for us in store.  If that happens he'll be more hated than Linda Tripp.  

by anna shane 2008-05-29 04:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Carville says Obama will win

surprise.

by soyousay 2008-05-29 06:09PM | 0 recs

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