I know that some dedicated Clinton supporters still believe that this can be pulled off. But when Obama takes the stage in FL on Wednesday, it will be over. You will say, but MI and FL are disenfranchised. But it is still over.
For the 2024.5 math, Clinton needs 306 to win. There are two pools of delegates. 198 pledged delegates remain. (KY-51,OR-52,PR-55,SD-16,MT-15,Edwards-9
There are also 211 uncommitted super delegates (217-6 in the Pelosi club-Carter, Cantwell, 2 Pelosis, 2 TX DNCers). Assume Clinton blows out Obama by 21 PDs with big wins in KY and PR compared to modest wins by Obama in OR, SD and MT (105-84).
Take Clinton's 306 (needed to win) and subtract the 105 PDs she will win. That leaves her with 201 remaining SDs to get to 2024.5. But with the SD pool down to only 211, Obama only has to take 11 more supers to reduce it below the level Clinton needs to reach 201.
That will happen by Wednesday evening when Obama will announce many more than 11 PDs. And therefore whatever conceivable gains Clinton could make in PR won't make a difference. Obama is rolling out so many supers today and tomorrow that PR just won't matter.
With Obama passing the 1627 halfway point, the supers no longer have a reason to wait to commit. They've been coming out all May, and they'll be coming out today and tomorrow. Obviously, they can't all come out. There are still 27 add-on supers in Obama states still to be selected. (Clinton has only 7.)
So as this campaign moves to the general this week, for those still believing there is hope for Clinton, remember:
-that there are twice as many uncommitted DNC members in Obama states than there are in Clinton states. And Senators are in Obama states 11-to-4.
-that in May Obama has (on May 19) a net gain of nearly 70 supers (soon to be 80-90). Aside from Clinton's 8 add-ons from NY ,CA,MA,TN, she netted just 5.5 supers this month.
-that by the end of tomorrow, Obama will have a 200 delegate lead over Clinton, and will be just 50 delegates shy of 2024.5. (And for those who can't forget FL and MI, please not that even if they were seated as is, with no delegates for Obama from MI, Clinton would still be nearly 100 behind.)
-that last week, Obama finally edged above Clinton in super delegates and is rapidly climbing into the 30s.
-that among pledged delegates, Obama surpasses Clinton in Senators, Governors, Representatives, and now DNC members.
-that despite Clinton's big win in WV, that Obama got Senator Byrd's endorsement. (For WV's supers, Obama has two senators and a rep to Clinton's 3 DNC members)
-that Clinton's big wins in March through May netted her 40 PDs to Obama's 46 in the same period. (OH-7,RI-5,PA-12,IN-4,WV-12 vs. TX-5,VT-3,WY-2,MS-7,NC-19,Edwards-10)
-that between Super Tuesday and Wisconsin, Obama had an 11 state blowout gaining him 122 PDs. To win, Clinton needed to overcome that number. Since then, she's netted a deficit of 6 PDs.
Clinton has survived in large part on two factors. First, she had a big buffer of supers, especially her buffer of DNC members. And second, she was able to convince many supers to hold out on voting until she had time to make her case, to win some big victories and prove her greater strength in November. That didn't happen, and now the supers will be deciding, in a big way today and tomorrow. The math is clear. Obama only needs between 10 and 15 supers to make it numerically impossible for Clinton to win. He'll get that number and many, many more by tomorrow night, when Obama will take the stage and point a unified Democratic party right between the eyes of John McCain.