Let's follow the logic here. The Countrywide CEO did bad things. Therefore everyone he ever knew, must therefore be disqualified for any public service positions.
That's the right wing smear machine at work. McCain's economic team is led by a person who singlehandedly dismantled the regulatory structures that would have prevented the mortgage meltdown. Hey that's great.
But Obama has a person who had a financial transaction with a Mortgage industry CEO, and therefore, Obama's campaign is in deep, deep yogurt.
It is kind of refreshing. If this is the best the wing nuts can come up with, then Obama is looking more and more like a winner every day.
I am not sure I understand what Clinton's goals are here. Maybe you could help us understand better.
Clinton has two choices with the results of the RBC decision. Her campaign can accept the results, or her campaign can protest her results by filing a challenge with the Convention Credentials Committee.
If she accepts the results, AND Obama wins a very large margin of the SDs, then Clinton has two choices, concede or tell the DNC that she will not challenge the results but wants to hold out until the convention for a floor fight.
If she protests the results, she will tell the DNC she will be filing a request with the Convention Credentials Committee.
Now what many Clinton supporters often overlook is that Clinton's ability to continue relies in large part on the continued support of her delegates.
And if large numbers of Clinton delegates (50 to 100 or more) announce that they are switching support to Obama and also publicly advise Clinton to concede the race, the pressure to withdraw will increase dramatically.
And this would likely lead to further erosion of Clinton support. Cardoza has hinted he is the first of 40 supers that are going to be switching, a swing of 80 delegates.
You can argue until the cows come home that history PROVES that Clinton can take it to the convention. History proves nothing. There were completely different election mechanisms at play in previous floor fights. None of those elections had run a marathon 16 month campaign season. And all of them occurred in a much different time, when the media wasn't completely in the pocket of the republican establishment, just biding it's time to smear the Democratic nominee.
The delegates are tasked to look at all these variables and make a choice. And in a week they will have done so.
Many Clinton supporters argue that the party elders have no power to move on. They will find out shortly, that it is Clinton who has less power to push this thing than they believe.
But do enjoy the last few days of uncertainty. Personally, at this point, it would bother me little to see Clinton attempt an end run and see hundreds of her supporters abandon her.
Since the goal is a unified party, the quicker the supers abandon her, the better.
That's correct. She doesn't win because a majority of delegates have chosen Obama.
What, pray tell, is Clinton's argument for going to the convention, if she loses by 100 delegates in the format she is arguing for. (Count all the MI/FL delegates, as is.) What needs to be resolved at the convention?
What Obama supporters often fail to understand is why Clinton supporters restate the same mantra over and over, without any reasoning whatsoever.
Here's a fact, not an opinion. If Obama gets the support of 150 of the remaining 230 supers, and Clinton says she is staying in, you will see 50 of her supers jump ship. Obama's 150 delegate lead will quickly mushroom to 250.
Please, let us know, what does Clinton expect to be resolved at the convention if she doesn't gain more than 50 of the remaining 200 supers?
You really should get your numbers from demconwatch.blogspot.com. They are the authorities. For PDs, they link to thegreenpapers.com, and they are also the authorities.
Clinton is down 200 delegates total. 160 PDs, and 40 SDs. So why do you cite an incorrect number like 140?
The math above is the math. You are arguing the Rove math is the math. Obama needs 1 in 4 supers to beat the 2209 barrier. He'll get many, many more. If he gets more than 68 on June 4th, Clinton will fold up camp since there she has no argument left to go on.
Maybe not. Maybe in 5 days it will be over. Obama WILL take SD and MT on Tuesday, and Obama will announce a flood of supers on Wednesday.
Here's the math to watch, as it will blow Clinton out of the water. Take all of the MI/FL delegates, super and pledged, that support Obama, multiple them by two, add them to Obama's total, and voila, he will be way, way over 2209.
That will blow Clinton's argument right out of the water.
Now Obama will not have all of these delegates on 6/4, since he will still have 20 add-ons to be selected at that point. But add them in, and he will be far over 2209, sending Clinton packing back to D.C.
Get used to this folks. I'm sure this whiz kid could name you every camp, the date it was liberated, by whom, he could even tell you what the weather was like on each day.
It looks like we'll have the plague of this McSame-iac until the election. Then he can go back to his troll home in some cave.
What is just so comical about morons like these is their total self-delusion. Bush is perhaps the most ill-informed President ever. Obama, when he takes office, will be one of the best informed.
He didn't just get a law degree, he was President of the Harvard Law Review. He didn't just practice law, for many years, he taught Constitutional law at the reknowned University of Chicago Law School, and was one of the most popular professors.
Bush has 8 years filled with the most ill-informed speech imaginable. Obama has 6 months of some of the best rhetoric this country has seen in a generation.
But he makes a minor slip like this, and is assailed for "stunnning ignorance of history."
You're summary is accurate. The numbers above are an attempt to help Clinton's do-or-die supporters understand why.
The ultimate question is the timing. I see three scenarios. The most unlikely is that she will not concede and take this to the convention. That would destroy her reputation in the party.
The most likely scenario is that she will wait for another win in PR, and a public decision on MI and FL to concede. That way she gets to say that everyone had a chance to have their say.
What I argue above, is that Clinton knows the math, and more important, what the RBC is going to decide. Of course there is communication between her and the RBC.
She also communicates with the remaining supers regularly. And if they are letting her know that there will be a big wave of support today and tomorrow, a wave that will make a victory for her impossible...
then there is a chance she will concede on Wednesday.
Interestingly, I believe she is due to be in FL on Wednesday.
Just a possibility. My money is still on June 4th.
The scenario above has nothing to do with rushing or going slowly. It describes what the MATH is if Obama gets 20-30 supers over the next couple of days. It shows that a mere gain of 11 supers (plus a 21 PD pickup for Clinton) gives Obama a number that prevents Clinton from being able to get to 2024.5.
If 11 SD can prevent her from getting to 2024.5, then 20-30 absolutely prevents, since there is no scenario where she can beat Obama by not 21 but 41 to 51 in PDs in the remaining contests.
This post is a prediction that if the supers come out in the numbers predicted, then Obama will embrace it as a victory. He won't declare victory, that is beneath him. There's just two weeks left so there is no need to insult either Clinton or her supporters.
But her supporters should read the math above, the math that the Clinton campaign well knows, and understand why tomorrow's speech in FL is essentially a victory speech, one that will turn a unified party towards John McCain.
Clinton supporters can claim that it isn't over until MI and FL are included, or that this is going to the convention.
It's just not true. By tomorrow, Obama will be up by 200 without MI and FL and nearly 100 if MI and FL are seated as is, which won't happen. And by the time the last add-ons are selected on June 21st, Obama will likely be up by 250 if the current MI and FL compromises are picked by the RBC. That is the inexorable math of Obama having 2/3 of uncommitted DNC members in his states, and 3/4 of unselected add-ons in his states, and 2/3 of uncommitted Senators in his states. (Uncommitted Reps are tied in Obama/Clinton states. For reps that committed in May, half the reps from Clinton states have gone for Obama, and no reps from Obama states went for Clinton.)
Just think of these numbers during tomorrow evenings speech. If Clinton is going to gain the support of delegates, both pledged and super, she must do it now. She can't lose by 250 on June 21st and claim that 125 are going to flip by the convention and support her. She hasn't gotten a single flip since Super Tuesday. If supers don't declare support for her NOW, then she will likely concede.
The math is there in the first couple of paragraphs. What we have been witnessing in May is Obama, rolling out nearly 60 SDs, controlling the media perspective.
But in Florida, it is his time to show his overwhelming support. Expect some very high-profile endorsements.
The math again:
Clinton needs 306. Best case scenario of the remaining 189 in 5 contests, Clinton picks up 21,23 or 25. You pick. We'll know a big component of that tonight. If it's a 21 pickup, that means gets 105 and needs 201 supers. Factoring out the 6 Pelosi club supers from the remaining 217 uncommitted supers, there are only 211 supers for Clinton to get 201 from. Obama get's 11 and there aren't enough supers left for Clinton to reach 2024.5.