This is good and important information. But i have a question: COuldn't Lutz data also imply that Republican voters with an "anti-immigaration" bent, were so pissed at Bush for NOT taking a hard enough line on immigration, that they registered a protest vote against GOP incumbancy?
Perhaps both sides of this worked to the Democrats advantage: insulted Latinos due the hard line GOP rhetoric, AND insulted red-staters due the not-hard-line-enough rhetoric from Bush, both revolting against the Republicans?
""Looking at the differences between the 2000 exit polling and the 2004 exit polling, one notices that the number of voters attending church weekly or more often did not increase relative to the entire electorate between 2000 and 2004. ""
Please clarify: The percentage of these voters voting for Bush didn't change...OR...the number of these voters voting for Bush didn't change?
This is a critical distintcion.
My understanding is that the total number of these voters increase significantly. Thus even if the same percentage broke for Bush, there were still consideral more actual votes going for Bush from this block in 04 vs. 00.
Why I believe it's closer to the 0-3% differential:
1) Likely voters are now being increasingly factored into these polls
Democrat registration is higher than Republicans (a recently increasing trend, and one of the few bright sopts for Dems)
Republicans have more than proven that they are FAR superior at getting out the base
4)Democrats can win nationally by 5+% and still not pick up and a lot of seats
5) Hate to say it: still no message, no messager, no strategy on the Democratic side - that is at all resonating or taking advantage of how poorly the country is being run by the Republicans
Well, let's remember something about Bill Clinton's bipartisism and "above the fray" centrism.
It got him elected President of the United States of America. Twice.
It was a riviting performance with Chris Wallace, and as much as those with the conservative slant seem to be instigators in sending it far and wide across the internet, seemingly with "look at the crazy-old-liberal" sub-titles, the more widely viewed this clip is the better for Democrats and our country.
And yes, it's about time SOMEONE, ANYONE on the Democratic side showed anything resembling leadership, passion, or integrity.
But let's also remember how he, and how any Democrat will in the future, prevail in catpuring what was once and someday will be again, the highest most influential office in all of the land:
CAPTURE THE CENTER!
Remember how well he did it? Sure some loyal Democrats had to hold their noses at times.
Notice how well Hillary has worked to do the same during the past five years? Hold your noses if you need to "netroots", but if you want to see a Democrat occupy the White house again in your lifetime, don't expect them to sing to you.
There is some good news out there today, but i'm not sure this is it.
The daily approval polling I like to watch most is Rassmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job
_Approval.htm) because it is both daily and right-leaning. Accordingly it will paint the most Republical-friendly picture - typically. As was noted in ALL polls last week, Bush received a very real bounce from - seemingly from, based on timing - the 9/11 address. As is clearly evident in Rassumussen's numbers from yesterday and today - this bounce is GONE.
Again the advantage of this poll is it's daily tracking. As others may be waking up this morning looking at the bounce Bush got last week conjecturing why and where it goes from here, the daily polling already shows the bounce is history.
So this is good news.
But more importantly looking the very slight indication of less-than-typical enthusiasm on the part of the Republican voter (based on the polling referenced in this post) - we must remember the painful lesson of Nov 3 2004: Repubicalns are MUCH better at getting out the vote than Democrats.
Demorats: do not take heart in this polling. You will only be disappointed. Dems will pick up seats in the House and Senate. Perhaps even enough to aquire the slightest of majorities in the house. But the Senate will not happen.
Why - there is still no clear compelling message or messenger. And it's still not getting better.
The Democrats deserve criticism. They need it. What will they do it with it ultimately?
The Democrats continue to have no SIMPLE message. The Democrats continue to have no marketing strategy. The Democrats continue to execute poorly.
This will be another disappointing election cycle. Will it be what it takes to create a new, thoughtful, strategic, marketing-focused Democratic party? We'll see.
What's the answer long term?
Get all of the young collage-aged Democrats out of Political Science programs. Out of all Liberal Arts endeavors. Out of all ART endeavors.
Get them into some good strategic marketing and business programs. Let's remember how we are getting beat: product and marketing ... strategy and execution.
Product = simple, emotional messages that resonate.
Marketing = good execution of basic tactics.
Let's remember how Rove got the Republicans here. No he is NOT a brilliant man. Yes, he has a knack for understanding the product-side of this equation, and he works it very well. But more importantly, he has leveraged BASIC marketing tactics (such as direct mail, viral marketing via churches, etc) to hammer the simple messages. Because the messages are simple - they get through the clutter. Because they are emotional - they resonate.