NM-01: Poll: Dead Heat in Madrid-Wilson Race

With less than 3 months to go before the November election, the latest district-wide survey of 400 likely voters in the district included a head-to-head ballot that shows the race statistically tied.

Lake Research Partners (D). 8/17-20. 400 likely voters. MoE: 4.9% (Jan. '06 Results)

Heather Wilson (R) 46 (44)
Patricia Madrid (D) 44 (43)

The poll found that voters are dissatisfied with the job Wilson is doing in Congress and are looking for change. Just 47 percent of voters are positive about the job Wilson is doing and fully half (50 percent) are negative. Among independent voters, a 57 percent majority believe Wilson is doing either "just a fair job" or a "poor job."

President Bush, the poll also found, remains an albatross around Wilson's neck. Fully six in ten voters (60 percent) are unhappy with the job Bush is doing as President.

There's more good news for Patricia Madrid in this poll. For over a month, Heather Wilson's spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on malicious, Rovian attack ads. But the attacks aren't working! Patricia Madrid is still standing strong!

While there's good news for Patricia Madrid in this poll, Washington special interests are doing everything they can to stop her. Earlier this month, the Chamber of Commerce bought $100,000 worth of television ads touting Wilson's support for the Medicare Part D Disaster. And, just yesterday, another pro-Wilson special interest group with ties to the DeLay scandal began pouring $150,000 a week into television ads in New Mexico.

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Cross posted at Daily Kos

Tags: Heather Wilson, NM-01, Patricia Madrid (all tags)



Chamber of Commerce

Gee, maybe the Madrid campaign ought to call up the Chamber of Commerce and beg them to stop running the ad about Wilson's support of Medicare D.

"Please, stop! For mercy's sake, we can't take the pressure of Wilson's support of such a universally reviled program! Oh, the pain!"

On second thought, that would be overdoing it. Instead, how about calling up the TV stations and buying a few more spots for it?

by mesquite 2006-08-23 03:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Chamber of Commerce

Reminds me of the strategy the NRSC was going to use ratcheting up Lamont's win by saying the Democrats favor getting out of Iraq.  By all means, I hope they do.  Do our job of portraying the Democrats as in tune with the American people in opposing this war and the Republicans as the "stay the course off the cliff" party.

by TheUnknown285 2006-08-23 04:04PM | 0 recs
Re: NM-01: Poll: Dead Heat in Madrid-Wilson Race

Can you post the campaign memo please so I can link to it from barry Wealsh (D-IN) 50 state page.

by BENAWU 2006-08-24 01:14AM | 0 recs
Re: NM-01: Poll: Dead Heat in Madrid-Wilson Race


Here's the link to The Democratic Congressional Challengers Strategy Memo

by ThomasAllen 2006-08-24 05:11AM | 0 recs
Re: NM-01: Poll: Dead Heat in Madrid-Wilson Race

Great news, Ms Madrid.  

A couple of questions:

1.  What is the partisan breakdown for your district?

2.  Has the Wilson campaign released any numbers to refute the Lake Research poll?  If they don't have any favorable numbers to throw out there, then I think this is even better news.

I just sent $25 your way (under my full name) --we have to reward those who get it right.  Good luck in November.

by ThomasAllen 2006-08-24 05:20AM | 0 recs
Re: NM-01: Poll: Dead Heat in Madrid-Wilson Race

Thanks so much for your contribution. We really appreciate it.

1) Kerry and Gore won the district. Here's some more demographic data:

http://www.ncec.org/redistricting/distri ctf635.html?district=nm108

2) We know that Wilson's done polling, but, she has yet to release any numbers. Since she's not releasing - they can't be good for her.

by Patricia Madrid for Congress 2006-08-24 07:34AM | 0 recs
Re: NM-01: Poll: Dead Heat in Madrid-Wilson Race

Just curious what people think...

Is a post like this stronger or weaker because it is posted by the "campaign" rather than as a first-person post by the candidate?

I really like the Democratic candidates who come out and say "I believe this", "I will do this".  I believe that we need to overcome the Republican assertion that Democrats are weak, and one way to do this is to make strong, personal statements.  

Is this distinction important even on a partisan blog like MyDD?

No disrespect to Ms. Madrid intended -- I wish her well in her campaign.

by xebecs 2006-08-24 05:23AM | 0 recs
Re: NM-01: Poll: Dead Heat in Madrid-Wilson Race

I think a personal diary by the candidate is certainly stronger, but I have nothing against the campaign doing a little promotion of their efforts.  Hopefully they are monitoring the post and will respond to comments --a dialog is far better than a press release.

by ThomasAllen 2006-08-24 05:40AM | 0 recs


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