My 80s widowed neighbor votes Republican but never puts out a sign. This time she has a McSame-Failin sign, so I asked her why. Without hesitation and with no sense of embarrassment, she immediately responded "But he's black". My neighbors on other side are harder to read - married couple, white, registered Rs, early 50s, small business owner, two children, son in college, daughter dropped out college senior year - this week they put up two signs in their home window facing street - one for the Phillies and one for OBAMA!! My Lower Moreland Township, Montgomery County ward 3 - all white, or at least I have never seen any African-Americans in the neighborhoods or at the polls since 1986 - voted Democrat for President in 2004 for first time at least back to Woodrow Wilson. Kerry 52% - Bush 47.2%, margin of 4.8% on a turnout of 74.23%. [PA statewide in 2004 voted Kerry 50.9% - 48.4% of the two-party vote - margin of 2.5%.] I will check my ward's results after the numbers are posted and have a fairly good idea as to turnout and how Obama is doing relative to Kerry and whether there might be a "Bradley effect" in my suburban all white ward in Montgomery County, PA. May post the results
Don't know where some of you are getting your info. Press reports I have seen in the Phila Inquirer indicate that the Phila Democratic City Committee WILL be doling out its usual street money to help all the foot-soldiers get out the vote. Would not be the Obama campaign itself necessarily, but the City Committee - as usual. Ed Rendell, Ed Koch, Mayor Nutter, Reps. Allyson Schwartz and Joe Sestak, state auditor general Wagner, state treasurer candidate McCord were all speakers at Sunday night's Montgomery County Fall Dinner fundraiser. All of them said to keep working and take nothing for granted. Montgo Dem Party Chair Marcel Groen - a hero for Dems - said final voter registration numbers will show the Dems with a 25,000+ margin in Montgomery County - highest in history in a county where the Rs have been in the lead since the Civil War. Montgo County now produces the third most Democratic votes of PA counties - after Phila and Allegheny/Pittsburgh. Gobama!
McCain is speaking in Montgomery County, one of the 4 suburban collar counties around Philadelphia. It casts more votes than any other PA county except for Phila and the county with Pittsburgh (Allegheny). In 2007 county elections, the Dems won offices of Controller, Clerk of Courts, Coroner, Register of Wills - county row offices the Dems had NEVER won before. Voter registration is increasingly in favor of the Ds. Clinton 92 won county by 11K votes; Clinton 96 by 22K, Gore 2000 by 32K and Kerry 2004 by 47K. If we can meet or beat that margin for Obama, he will likely carry PA. The Montgo County Democratic Committee Fall Dinner is this Sunday evening and Sen. Obama is the speaker. Tix ($100) deadline is today. rsvp 610-272-2000 Money goes for election efforts in 3 weeks.
I just got back from Louisiana & go there often. Actually took someone to the polls to vote on Saturday. Folks there dislike Bush because of Katrina but they loathe Hillary. Landrieu will be facing a strong headwind if Hillary is at the top of the ticket. In Mitch Landrieu's race for Lt. Guv., even tho a Repub was on ballot, he had no money and the state Rs made only a minimal effort to help him. They were focused on the Jindal race for Gov. They gave Mitch a "pass".
As for KY, is the state legislature on the ballot? Will a Bashear solid win help increase the Ds in the KY legislature?
The bloggers who would be quick to toss aside Democratic Senators and Members of Congress in red states who may not meet 100% of their litmus tests strike me as naive and unrealistic. A "rejected" Sen. Landrieu would be replaced by an extreme right Republican who would be reelected for the next 24 - 30 years. We are very fortunate to be contemplating building a larger Democratic Senate majority, only because we have Democrats hailing from red states like Louisiana, Nebraska, Arkansas, the Dakotas, who may not vote as we prefer on 100% of the issues, but who vote for a "D" for Majority Leader. Even John Edwards could not be reelected to U.S. Senate from NC today. He ran much more to the right when he won there years ago.
I wish it were otherwise, but at least among my extended family across the country NO ONE in politics is hated with as much passion as Hillary Clinton. I've had the discussions with them. Why she is singled out for such vitriol is not supported by logic or facts - but the fact remains that they absolutely loathe her. I know swing, split ticket voters here in the Phila suburbs in Chester and Montgomery counties who fell the same way. They voted for Rendell and Casey last year but they would vote for any Republican over Hillary next year. [Of course, many of them would not vote for a non-white candidate either - but their opposition to Obama is not as passionate.]
With literally half the states all voting within a few weeks very early, and a likely splitting of delegates such that no one has a majority in either party, it may fall to the late voting states to decide the nominees. We could see real campaigns among the last 2 or 3 candidates still standing in each party to compete for large blocks of delegates such as that of Pennsylvania, in April. Would PA.'s be the largest block of delegates (winner-take-all) NOT voting in those first few weeks?
All of which shows why the Rs have to do everything legally possible to defeat LA. Sen. Landrieu. Some of us can continue to whine and harp on our differences with her, only weakening her and helping the Rs and Rove, or we can use our heads instead, stop undercutting her and help shore up that seat. I sent her money before the 6/30 deadline. If she loses, the R who replaces her will be every bit as far right wing and sanctimonious as Sen. Vitter, but without the prostitutes (presumably).
Arlen Specter has apparently had an understanding with his wife Joan for his entire career in Washington. Recall that for many years she was on city council in Phila while he was in Senate in DC. Folks in Phila know of two long-term affairs he had and one young woman whose husband threatened him. Joan does not seem to care. I think most of the sentient public would rather not try to picture snarlin Arlen naked and having sex.
HookersforVitter.com thinks it would be a tragedy to lose him as a leading Republican Senator.
If he was dumb enough to use his own phone to arrange for prostitutes at least five times, how many additional times was he smart enough to use a pay phone or a throw away phone card? 5 calls is the tip of the iceberg. When you combine the DC hookers with the years of prostitutes in New Orleans before that, doesn't Mrs. Vitter have to wonder when during their marriage he was ever faithful?
Minnesota - Alas, we can write off our chances in Minnesota. We are blowing it and handing a weak Republican practically a "pass" for 6 more years. Comedian Franken will not be taken seriously by a majority of Minnesota voters or the press. He is a weak general election candidate, regardless of how much money he raises or self-funds. I give between $15,000 and $30,000 each two year cycle to Dems for Senate and House, but I would not contribute to a Franken bid. He cannot win in Nov. 2008 and we are blowing that race "big time".