Clinton leads NC Poll

Looks like Clinton is ahead in a new NC poll.

http://wral.com/news/state/story/1872475 /

Clinton 38
Obama   18
Edwards 18

<The Elon University Poll, conducted Sept. 24-27 by the Elon University Institute for Politics and Public Affairs, surveyed 664 North Carolina residents.>

Tags: 2008, clinton, North Carolina, polls (all tags)

Comments

36 Comments

Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

wow. Edwards, a 'populist' who's never popular. LOL.

Southerners are smart in smoking out this 'faked' southerner.

by areyouready 2007-09-28 09:39AM | 0 recs
BURN!

Good one.

by dpANDREWS 2007-09-28 09:40AM | 0 recs
Ouch.

Edwards won't be in the race by the time NC rolls around anyway.  

by dpANDREWS 2007-09-28 09:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

Isn't Edwards from North Carolina ?

or is it South Carolina , I don't even know which is it.

by lori 2007-09-28 09:39AM | 0 recs
Born in Sc

Moved to NC at a young age and was raised here i think.  Attended NC State at one time or another I believe.

by dpANDREWS 2007-09-28 09:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

NC. That's his home state.

by areyouready 2007-09-28 09:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

It looks like he isn't terribly popular in any of the carolinas .

Wherever he is from.

by lori 2007-09-28 09:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

Born in SC. Senator of NC for 6 years.

by RJEvans 2007-09-28 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: There is NO EXCUSE!

Smeared? When a guy who was a former senator in his state not too long ago cannot even carry his home state in the primary, I repeat the primary- how in the world can you even consider him as your nominee????

This is worst than Gore losing TN in the general. We are just talking primary here.

He's down BIG! Very BIG! Not some small margin where you can just blow it off!

At least Obama, who is LOSING big in every state polled against Clinton is at least winning his home state of IL.

As a perceived top 3 candidate, NC's results are the BIGGEST proof of Edward's weaknest in his southern region.

At least Hillary Clinton ( who is not even a southerner) is heavily favored to carry Arkansas in the general against ANY of the republicans!
That's impressive for any Democrat especially for Hillary Clinton.

He could not carry NC in 2004 as a VP despite having the backing of a very popular Democratic Governor.

Now fast forward 2008, he is trailing Clinton by 20 points & is tied with Obama.

Com'on! And the current Democratic Governor WON again BY A LANDSLIDE last year! In addition, we won a House seat last year in NC!

I really like John Edwards but his campaign is finished!

The public financing is the final straw!

by labanman 2007-09-28 05:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

recommended. Edwards' number is pathetic.

by areyouready 2007-09-28 09:41AM | 0 recs
Edwards public financing deal ...

Makes me have to withdraw my prediction.  4 weeks ago I said he pass Obama and move into the number two spot.  The fallout from this public financing move will blunt any momentum he may gain from his refocused campaign.

by dpANDREWS 2007-09-28 09:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards public financing deal ...

Very unlikely, Edwards will never get the African American voters, and AA community is a very important part of democratic primary. He will not be able to catch Obama even if he pulls ahead of him in IA and NH.

by areyouready 2007-09-28 09:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll but loses in Illinois

University of Illinois poll:

Obama 49
Clinton 27

These polls mean little now. All will change after the Iowa Caucus.

I am not an Edwards supporter, but it is premature to count him out.

Some of you were counting Obama OUT AND SAID HIS CROWDS WERE DWINDLING IN SIZE.

Last nite he drew 24,000 in NYC to a rally.

He will post money at end of 3rd qtr at 20 million and estimates are that Clinton will post at 18 million.

My point in all of this is not to count people in or out yet at this time.

by BDM 2007-09-28 10:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll but loses in Illinois

We're not counting anybody out.

by areyouready 2007-09-28 10:29AM | 0 recs
Re:What so Special about IL ?????

What's so special about Obama leading in IL ????

Damn, he better be leading in IL ! He is suppose to be on of the Top 3 candidates & it would be a disaster ( like Edwards in NC) if Obama can't even beat Clinton in his home state.

But to highlight IL ? Lord, Obama is losing in EVERY SINGLE STATE with polling results( except IL) to Hillary Clinton!

And since there is No Consolation price in political campaigns if you come in 2nd- That horrible to be LOSING to CLINTON in every single state with polls & in ALL NATIONAL POLLS done!

Yes, you're  right. IL may change! It may change its support to Clinton if she wins Iowa!
That's how powerful she is !

by labanman 2007-09-28 05:20PM | 0 recs
Minor Correction

Clinton has 37% not 38%. Still, ouch. By comparison,  the last poll in New York shows Clinton getting 48% in a primary, and the latest in Illinois shows Obama getting 48%-51%. So Edwards really does poorly in his homestate compared to the others.

by jj32 2007-09-28 10:20AM | 0 recs
It's not a poll of Democrats or likely voters

The sample is of the population in general and does not restrict respondents by their voter eligibility or their likelihood of voting in an election.

So a lot of Republicans want Hillary to be the Democratic nominee. Gosh, I wonder why that would be.

by MeanBoneII 2007-09-28 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: It's not a poll of Democrats or likely voters

That is the only problem I see with this poll. It includes Republican voters and is not a clear representation of the Democratic primary race. Hence, I won't commment on the poll.

by RJEvans 2007-09-28 10:33AM | 0 recs
Re: It's not a poll of Democrats or likely voters

It just proves that people have to read the entire poll and see who they are polling and not the headlines.

by BDM 2007-09-28 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: It's not a poll of Democrats or likely voters

Amen, in fact, reading the whole poll shows that the Democratic candidate preference question was asked only of respondents who said they would support the Democrats in the Presidential election.

The Republican candidate question was asked of those saying they would support the Republicans in the Presidential election.

by hwc 2007-09-28 10:49AM | 0 recs
Re: It's not a poll of Democrats or likely voters

Well thanks you for that information.

by RJEvans 2007-09-28 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: It's not a poll of Democrats or likely voters

Read below (Nuevoliberal.)  This was indeed a question asked of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents.

by georgep 2007-09-28 01:37PM | 0 recs
Sorry. The sub-sample WAS of likely Dem voters

Sorry to burst the little bubble, Mean, but please see this poll document, which shows (on page 3) that the primay question was asked of only those that said that they were likely to vote for a Democrat in the general election. That sub-sample (38%) should closely represent, proportionally, the likely Dem primary voters.

The Dem primary question also shows that the # of resp. were 246 (out of a the total of 664).

by NeuvoLiberal 2007-09-28 12:25PM | 0 recs
the polls would then extract the standing

perceptions and views of the voters. I am sure many folks in NC are watching the debates etc, however, and have prior experience with Edwards.

by NeuvoLiberal 2007-09-28 12:57PM | 0 recs
Not likely voters.

They weren't polling likely voters, so they got a low-info sample and the expected results.

By the way, I notice your Plan B candidate isn't doing so well. Time for Plan C?

by MeanBoneII 2007-09-28 01:03PM | 0 recs
Time for Plan A/B, No C/C: Al-Barack'08!

See, I had this figured out a while back :)

---

"Not likely voters."

You were implying that the sub-sample for the primary question was of mixed affiliation/support. That's a wrong claim. The primary question was only asked of Dem supporters, as we gather from the results document.

by NeuvoLiberal 2007-09-28 01:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

Well, this diary certainly belongs on the recommended list.  Wow.

by Steve M 2007-09-28 10:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

I hope that i wont have to hear Edwards supporters telling me how Edwards is the most suited democrats to beat Hillary and if Obama would just drop out , his job would be easier.

Let me remind you that this is not the first poll that shows Edwards not leading in his homestate..I think they was a previous poll showing him not on top , but not that badly.

After Edwards decided to file to hop on the FEC thingy because of money problem , then this NC poll stating he's far behind in his homestate ,i dont know how can an Edwards supporter keep saying he's better suited to defeat Hillary?

Edwards just doesnt have the money to go the distance + it would be problematic if he wins the nomination since he will not be able to campaign until after the convention + he may be at a money disadvantage against the GOP that wont have to worry about this.

Obama is clearly the only candidate that has the assets to take on Hillary...Whether he can do it or not is not the question...Right now , you have to have the weapons and Edwards just doesnt have it right now..You have to be able to keep your homestate no madder what and the fact that he cant do that just takes him out of consideration.

by JaeHood 2007-09-28 12:42PM | 0 recs
I certainly don't want Obama to drop out.

He takes far more support from Hillary than from Edwards. I hope Obama finishes second in Iowa.

by MeanBoneII 2007-09-28 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: I certainly don't want Obama to drop out.

I'm surprised you've admitted that...Most Edwards supporters believe that if Obama drops out , all his supporters would flak to Edwards...This may true in the blogs/internet , but not true outside the Internet.

by JaeHood 2007-09-28 01:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

That seems like spin.   If you are a Senator of a state and you are well liked, this should not be an issue.  Take Mark Warner and Virginia, for instance.  The guy is popular in his state.  He would be leading in VA, even though nobody campaigns there and Clinton is "well known."  Obama leads IL.  Richardson leads NM.  I think your reasoning is off.  It just does not seem credible for a popular ex-Senator from the state to get only 18% from his Democratic constituency, however you might want to spin it otherwise.

by georgep 2007-09-28 01:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

The poll included democrats republicans and anybody else to vote on the democratic nominee. That means republicans could participate in this poll for the democratic nominee.

by BDM 2007-09-28 02:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

You are wrong.

Look at the poll document on page 3:

http://wral.com/asset/news/state/2007/09 /28/1872475/ElonPollResults.swf

The primary question to choose between the Democratic candidates was asked ONLY of Democrats.

by georgep 2007-09-28 02:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

if edward can even win his home state what makes people think he can win the white house?  

by terrondt 2007-09-28 04:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton leads NC Poll

I'm sorry but to take much stock of a poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percent is really stretching it.  If the poll was as reliable an indicator as some here believe one would certainly expect the margin of error rate to be below 5 percent.

by True Independent 2007-09-28 03:05PM | 0 recs
Edwards leads Clinton is most polls

Democratic Candidate vs. Republican Candidate

Survey USA - September 28, 2007
Oregon
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 7.33%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 7.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 12.00%

Survey USA - September 27, 2007
Minnesota  
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 15.66%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 10.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 17.00%

Survey USA - September 26, 2007
Wisconsin
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 5.00%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 7.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 8.66%

Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 3.33%
Obama trails the Republicans by an average of 7.00%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 9.33%

Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 7.00%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 9.33%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 15.66%

Missouri (11 electoral votes)
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 3.66%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 5.33%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 13.00%

New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Average
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 11.33%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 10.00%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 13.00%

Kentucky (8 electoral votes)
Average
Clinton trails the Republicans by an average of 5.00%
Obama trails the Republicans by an average of 12.33%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 1.33%

Virginia (13 electoral votes)
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 9.33%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 3.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 11.33%

Alabama (9 electoral votes)
Average
Clinton trails the Republicans by an average of 8.33%
Obama trails the Republicans by an average of 23.33%
Edwards trails the Republicans by an average of 5.33%

Kansas (6 electoral votes)
Average
Clinton trails the Republicans by an average of 8.00%
Obama trails the Republicans by an average of 5.00%
Edwards trails the Republicans by an average of 1.00%

by mrobinsong 2007-09-28 06:25PM | 0 recs

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