Get real. The last two weeks has been a collapse of epic proportions. In the most Democratic year since 1964 if the election were held today, McCain would win. But it isn't today and Obama has time, but he must make choices.
What is he going to do about Palin? Trying to paint her as some right wing nut? Some earmarks in Alaska? Flip flop on the Bridge to Nowhere? Does anyone care? Nope. She has brought the Christain conservatives home, activating the GOP GOTV operation of 2004, and is bringing white working class women over to McCain. There is nothing Obama can do about this, nothing.
He can still win but only if he gets aggressive and takes chances. Right now, and throughout this campaign, McCain has been playing to win while Obama has been trying NOT to lose. There is a big difference.
Now is the time to play to win and the path for winning is there if he chooses it. Yes, $200 million in Ohio if that's what it takes!
Obama doesn't have to worry about states like Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin - they are in the bag.
With the 'Palin Effect' and the combined All Western ticket, Montana, Colorado and Nevada are gone for Obama. He should not waste a cent in these states.
Obama still stands a chance in New Mexico, but it will be a fight and he must win the state in order to win the election.
Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida are gone. Obama has no chance in these states.
Obama must win N.H., which looks very good, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
He should be throwing every last dime into New Mexico, Michigan, Ohio, N.H. He has to accept that Palin changed the map are there is very little he can do to stop it, but his path to 270 remains IF he reallocates his resources and just focuses on the above four states.
We will know after the Charlie Gibson interviews if she has the stuff to make it through the gauntlet. One note of caution for Obama supporters regarding these interviews. They are making the same mistake as they did in the days leading up to her acceptance speech at the Republican convention. By the time she gave the speech, expectations were so low she could have read the phone book and looked good. Obviously, she did better than good. What happens if Palin nails the Gibson interviews? (over two days, no conditions). The Obama people have set her up for another, higher, round of acclaim IF she pulls it off. I've seen her unscripted interviews on YOUTUBE and she does the one on one interviews better than Obama, Biden, or McCain! If she pulls this out it could launch the ticket to such a lead, Obama would not be able to catch them in 7 short weeks.
Strongly disagree. Remember, Bush won Virginia with a healthy 54% of the vote in 04' and Kerry took 70% of the NOVA vote in 04'. Obama just isn't going to do much better. Bush was very unpopular in N Virginia in 04' whereas this is McCain's stomping grounds and he is very well liked there. Overall Obama might pick up a couple of pts statewide due to his GOTV, but it won't be enough against the McCain-Palin ticket.
Agree. The Scots-Irish connection that Webb had in rural Virginia is even more so with McCain. Throw in Christain conservative Palin, mix the strong navy background (Virginia is not a military state, it is a NAVY)and the chances of Obama taking Virginia are very small indeed. Everyone needs to remember McCain is going to do OK in suburban VA - he won't win that section, but he will do much better than Bush did.
Give it up. Sarah Palin is made to order for the American west. The moment McCain selected her it was over in Montana, Colorado, and Nevada. The polls within the next two weeks will show, like Montana today, the race will be outside the margin of error in both states. The only chance Obama has is New Mexico which I believe will end up as close as 04'
Your premise and conclusion is false.
While the numbers in the South have shot up for McCain, they have also gone up dramatically in blue states like Washington state where the number today is plus 4 Obama where it was plus 14 for Obama a month ago. You see similar compression in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc. Plains states like Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri have also seen a vast expansion in McCain margins.
The McCain jump is due to the Christian conservative base coming home and the massive move of white working class women (no college) from Obama to McCain.
The changes we see are NOT a bounce. The change is structural, those white working class women have moved over for good and the western states electorate in Montana, Colorado, and Nevada have done the same.
This was planned, obviously, as a take-off on Palin's quip from her acceptance speech. No other explanation passes the smell test.
The 'joke' will create a hurricane force backlash at a very bad time for Obama. The tin ear of the Obama campaign is beyond belief. Just as women are moving in droves over to McCain and Obama does this! Women are insulted in the workplace everyday with insensitive and stupid remarks just like this.
Obama will lose a newscycle day, maybe two having to deal with this. McCain's War Room is whooping it up as we speak. What a gift!
The Results of a SurveyUSA Election Poll
Geography Surveyed: North Carolina
Data Collected: 09/06/2008 - 09/08/2008
McCain is now in front among the educated and less educated, among the affluent and less affluent. He's polling at 64% in Coastal Carolina (up from 57%), at 60% in Charlotte (up from 53%), and at 54% in Raleigh / Greensboro (up from 44%). Pro-Life voters backed McCain 2:1 last month, 4:1 this month.
The PPP poll, which is Democratic leaning, represents what's going on in Florida. The demographics of the state are the most favorable for McCain of any in the nation. Obama has no chance of winning Florida, none, nada, zilch.
Obama needs to begin to build a firewall around Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and New Hampshire, where he has a realistic chance of winning. Now that we know Obama's money advantage, vs. McCain, is an illusion, it's time to get real.
You are quite right. None of the debates since Kennedy/Nixon has made any measurable impact on their respective elections.
Obama and McCain are both mediocre debaters, you can write the script now for the each of the debates - nothing material will come out of them.
Palin vs Biden? That will be the one to watch! Expectations for Palin will be extremely low and she, of course, will easily exceed them and be declared the victor.