Yup, I think if these counts hold then he can claim victory. On the other hand I would not want the nominee to have won the Dem nomination on the basis of small red states we don't have much of a shot at in November. It is the flip side of McCain's win among blue states.
I think it is only an upset in the sense that Mass is not much closer based on all the positive media and the endorsements over the last week. I've seen lots of predictions of a huge Obama wave tonight, despite his campaign's attempt to lower expectations, and it is not happening.
Good point about the Southern Democrats. Did they stay registered Democrats, or register as Republicans when Reagan got them? I know a big part of the general elections strategy is to try to get them back.
Here is a question that I have been asking since Iowa - isn't it a little surprising that pundits are surprised when Obama gets a significant number of white votes in a DEMOCRATIC primary? Haven't the Dems been the integrated party all these years, while the Reps have been running on their racist southern strategy? I would be very disappointed in my party if white people did not vote for Obama if they were so inclined based on his policies.
I agree that in the general election I will be impressed if he gets 39% of the white vote in Georgia - but in the Dem primary? I would hope so. The pundits never mention this at all, like the last 28 years of the Republican southern strategy never happened.
Any thoughts? This is a great forum and I'm really interested in your opinions.