New Franklin & Marshall Keystone PA Primary Poll

I was waiting on this particular Poll all week long as I considering it as the most reliable Poll in Pennsylvania.
They also have a good Track Record.
Franklin & Marshall Keystone Poll done April 8-13 among 367 LV/MOE 5.1
PA Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton 46 %
Barack Obama 40 %
Undecided 14 %

when leaners are included it's:
Hillary Clinton 49 %
Barack Obama 42 %

In March it was among Likely Voters:
Hillary Clinton 51 %
Barack Obama 35 %
Others 1 %
Undecided 13 %

Keys:
Obama is up 5 and Clinton is down 5 compared to March.

So, who has the Mo?
The Keystone Poll was in the Field the same Dates like the Q-Poll and LA Times Poll.
I beginning to start seriously questioning SUSA.
And here is the Reason:
Since 2004 there haven't any Polling from SUSA in PA. SUSA did not poll the PA Governor & Senate Races in 2006.

Bank on it. Clinton DOES NOT win PA by double digits. GAME OVER

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Comments

23 Comments

Delegate count

This will cut her delegate count down considerably if these hold through the primary, although I expect the difference to widen some from these numbers - she tends to do well with last second deciders which drives her numbers up slightly. However, a difference of 10 points or less will result in a virtual tie for delegates and make no real dent in Obama's lead in either delegates or popular vote totals.

by upstate girl 2008-04-16 05:06AM | 0 recs
delegates no longer count

Obama can't win with delegates and the super delegates will take FL and MI in to account whether Obama refused to let them vote or not.

by TeresaInPa 2008-04-16 05:19AM | 0 recs
Re: delegates no longer count

Even if they're seated as-is, he still holds the lead in the popular vote and delegate count as long as his current polling numbers remain the same - and so far he's only continued to climb in support. He's cut down a 20 point lead on Clinton's part to 5 in a matter of weeks.

by upstate girl 2008-04-16 05:20AM | 0 recs
Re: delegates no longer count
Considering the record breaking ($$) ad buys he's had in PA, I would be horrified if he hadn't closed the gap.
The fact that he spends all this money and still can't beat her in this state says a lot, IMO.
by skohayes 2008-04-16 06:02AM | 0 recs
Re: delegates no longer count

He holds the popular vote lead until Pennsylavia weighs in.  

It's kind of like John Kerry being narrowly ahead of George Bush... and then we hear from Texas.  Ooops.  

by BPK80 2008-04-16 06:23AM | 0 recs
Re: delegates no longer count

I've run the numbers and see no credible way for PA to change the popular vote lead.  Could you spell out what margin you think Clinton would win by and how many votes you think would be cast?

by politicsmatters 2008-04-16 06:48AM | 0 recs
Re: delegates no longer count

4,000,000 registered Dems in Pennsylvania

65% turnout (honestly, no real way to predict)

Hillary win by 12%

A few hundred thousand +Hillary, erasing the popular vote advantage Obama has (includes MI and FL).  

by BPK80 2008-04-16 08:00AM | 0 recs
Re: delegates no longer count

Also, that tired talking point about Obama not "letting them count" is ridiculous. Obama has no control what the DNC decide to do about the situation.

by upstate girl 2008-04-16 05:21AM | 0 recs
Re: delegates no longer count

Howard Dean the National DNC chairman and the states DNC have come together to try to be fair to the candidates but seat the delegates. One plan from MI had legs and Dean was all for it...BUT anything they (national and state DNC's together) decide now HAS to have the agreement of BOTH candidates....so Barack and Hillary have the FINAL say, so Obama DOES have some control and he has stated more than once if it's not 50/50 it's not acceptable. So this WILL go to the Credentials Committee.

by Justwords 2008-04-16 08:35AM | 0 recs
Eaxactly.

Talking about proportiallly distributed delegates is meaningless at this point.  Neither will have enough, and it will be close.

It is all about the popular vote and electability arguments to the superdelegates.  and they can use FL and MI in their decision making.  They do not have to pretend to themselves that there were no votes cast there.

by ocli 2008-04-16 06:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Eaxactly.

Can they?  Sure.  Will they?  Well there hasn't exactly been overwhelming evidence to that.  Remember that she'll most likely need 75-80% of the open superdelegates.  You need an overwhelming argument to get that.

by thezzyzx 2008-04-16 06:18AM | 0 recs
Re: delegates no longer count

Will you please blame the correct people, the legislatures of MI and FL. And remember Clinton supported those rules, only changing her mind after she was losing.  If you can't be honest with us, at least be honest with yourself.

by IowaMike 2008-04-16 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re: New Franklin

Still lots of undecideds there. I wonder what they are waiting for? Debate tonight should be a good factor for them.

by wasder 2008-04-16 05:11AM | 0 recs
they will go for Clinton

in the most part.  That is what happens over and over.  

There is something that happens here that people do not understand.  People in PA think that polling is nosey people asking about things that are none of their business.  Those undecideds are mostly Clinton voters who think pollsters should mind their own business.

by TeresaInPa 2008-04-16 05:21AM | 0 recs
Re: they will go for Clinton

Do you have anything to back that up besides personal opinion? And how do you correlate the fact that a national poll holds Obama in the lead above both Clinton and McCain, if its a "Pennsylvania" thing? Just for the record I'm 10 minutes from Central PA and I don't see evidence of what you're talking about whatsoever, if we're only basing this on personal opinion.

by upstate girl 2008-04-16 05:23AM | 0 recs
Re: they will go for Clinton

yeah, the rest of the country loves to have their dinner's interrupted to answer personal questions...

Jeesh, who's being  elite now!

by IowaMike 2008-04-16 06:21AM | 0 recs
Re: they will go for Clinton

Um, please don't speak for other people.

And why do you have a sig with an ad for gore... your canidate just trashed al gore

by CaptMorgan 2008-04-16 06:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton will win PA, KY, WV, IN....PR....

Clinton doesn't win in PA by "double digits" it's "Game Over!"

A few facts:

PA is Clinton Country. She will win. Then she'll win as well in WV, KY, IN....Obama can't get to the number he needs without superdelegates....

And....  

You cannot select a nominee by excluding 2.3 million Democratic voters from 2 different states, and hope to have any legitimacy as a party.

This is G.W. Bush Redux--only this time it's Howard Dean, Donna Brazile and Barack Obama playing the role of G.W. Bush.

I've never voted for G.W. Bush, and I won't vote for his surrogates in the Revival of Florida 2000, no matter which theatre/convention/venue they choose to revive it.

by Tennessean 2008-04-16 07:19AM | 0 recs
dream on

see ya tuesday

by TeresaInPa 2008-04-16 05:18AM | 0 recs
Re: dream on

Can you back up anything you have said in this post?

by Bobby Obama 2008-04-16 06:02AM | 0 recs
14% undecided?

That does not sound like a reliable poll to me. Could be a blowout either way with that amount of slop in the numbers.

by ocli 2008-04-16 06:08AM | 0 recs
Re: 14% undecided?

True, but...

C+20 ARG (11-13 Apr)
C+14 SUSA (12-14 Apr)
C+10 IA (8 Apr)
C+9 Ras (14 Apr)
C+9 SV (11-13 Apr)
C+6 F&M (7-12? Apr)
C+6 Quin (12-13 Apr)
C+6 Time (2-6 Apr)
C+6 Temple (27 Mar-9 Apr)
C+5 LAT/Bloom (10-14 Apr)
C+4 Zogby (9-10 Apr)
C+3 PPP (7-8 Apr)
C+3 SP&R (6-10 Apr)

The way pollsters as a pack have run in the heavily-polled primaries thus far, it's far more likely for the result to be in the 6-10 range than in the 14-20 or 3-point extremities.  When lots of pollsters get in on the act, in general, they've been extremely accurate, and the pollsters that deviate from that pack the farthest tend to be the most wrong.

by Rorgg 2008-04-16 07:02AM | 0 recs
Hmmm

I can't say I'm impressed with the arbitrary decision to anoint this poll the "most reliable" in Pennsylvania given...

Extraordinarily high margin of error: 5.1%
Very small sample size: 367
Dates of poll: 4/8-4/13

by BPK80 2008-04-16 08:02AM | 0 recs

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