• comment on a post Why Jews are liberals over 4 years ago

    The large majority of American Jews are either non-orthodox religious (reform, conservative, reconstructionist etc...) or non-affiliated.  The orthodox vote pretty heavily republican.  But they are significantly outnumbered by the non-orthodox who vote Democratic.  There is an interesting divide between the orthodox and the majority of the American Jewish community.

  • comment on a post IL Senate Removes Blagojevich From Office 59-0 over 5 years ago

    I don't think that Illinois has a provision to replace a Lt. Governor who becomes Governor in mid-term.  It just stays vacant until the next election.

  • comment on a post Returns On Bipartisanship? over 5 years ago

    Given the fact that Minnesota is still in the courts, and that 1 or 2 Senate Democrats may vote against a stimulus bill; doesn't the president need at least 3 or 4 Republican votes to stop a Republican filibuster in the Senate?

  • comment on a post Can John McCain Win with Only the South? over 5 years ago

    I would be real careful about crosstabs.  The sample size of most polls these days are so small that the sample sizes of the crosstabs are meaningless.  An overall sample size of say 800 (pretty big by today's standards) means that the sample size for any of the 4 regions is 200.  It's awfully iffy to speculate on a region's preferences based on 200 voters.

    State and regional polls at least have a reasonable sample size (whether anyone's samples are truly random and independent is another matter).

  • comment on a post Voter Age & ID this decade over 5 years ago

    Do the age breakdowns reflect early voting?  Are there any studies that compare voter demographics in early voting versus election day voting?

  • Some comments on the polls

    1. I am troubled that the decline in Obama's poll numbers in the battleground states has happened at the same time that the Obama field organization has been in full swing opening offices, recruiting volunteers and registering new voters.  Are McCain's television adverts trumping the combination of the Obama adverts and the field organization?

    2. I always suspected (but have no proof) that many of the newly registered Democrats in the northern industrial states (new voters and party switchers) voted for Clinton in the primaries in order to register their disapproval of Obama.  If so, we are not seeing Hillary die-hards holding out, but we are seeing anti-Obama voters moving from one anti-Obama candidate to another.  Nothing much to do with Hillary.

    3. Do we know anything about how enthusiastic Obama and McCain supporters currently are?  We never have a near 100% turn-out.  Maybe the strategy is that a lot more McCain supporters will not vote, as opposed to Obama supporters who will vote.  (Although I presume that the Rove 72 hour drive will be in effect).  So, McCain could turn out to be the more popular choice for president (among citizens but not 2008 GE actual voters), but Obama still might win on technical points by having a more enthusiastic group of supporters who actually vote.

  • comment on a post Obama Up 30 Points Among Low-Wage Voters over 6 years ago

    Obama showed his GE skills in his election for US senator.  In the primary he was pretty much the progressive reform candidate.  In the general election he became the party organization candidate.  Maybe his problem now is that at the same time, he has to fire up the progressive reform base in the field, while appealing to a more cynical and conservative public on the tv.

  • comment on a post Obama Up 30 Points Among Low-Wage Voters over 6 years ago

    If Obama is up by 30 points amongst the working poor, and if the tracking polls showing a dead heat are to be believed, then McCain is way ahead amongst those earning more than the working poor.  Why is this, and what can Obama do to close the gap?

  • comment on a post Obama Holding Strong In North Carolina over 6 years ago

    The figures that I get from the 2006 American Community Survey for minority group population in North Carolina are:

    Hispanic 6.75%, Black non-hispanic 21.2%, American Indian non-hispanic 1.1%, and 2 or more races 1.17%.  For what it's worth Asian non-hispanic are 1.82%.  

    Can Obama get enough votes out of the white population?  Can the triangle close the gap?

  • comment on a post Virginia Looks Blue over 6 years ago

    Won't many evangelical churches in the western valleys of Virginia be the equivalent of McCain field offices?

  • comment on a post Are Jews Really Down on Obama? over 6 years ago

    I am new to this blog.  I think people here are pretty level headed, so I would like to join with you.  My comments on Obama and the Jewish vote.  My informal survey.

    1. My (black hat) orthodox Jewish relatives have become solid Republican over the years, and they are voting solid for McCain.

    2. The Jewish community in the Chicago suburb of Oak Park is very progressive, and is voting (and working) solid for Obama.

    3. Older Jews who live by the lakefront (and who I take classes with) are really split.  This includes lifelong Democrats.  Some are Obama, some McCain, some undecided.

    4. My relatives on Hutchinson Island in Florida are mostly Democrats but are undecided.  My Democratic relatives in New Jersey are leaning to Obama.

    I think it all still has to settle.  

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