The large majority of American Jews are either non-orthodox religious (reform, conservative, reconstructionist etc...) or non-affiliated. The orthodox vote pretty heavily republican. But they are significantly outnumbered by the non-orthodox who vote Democratic. There is an interesting divide between the orthodox and the majority of the American Jewish community.
Given the fact that Minnesota is still in the courts, and that 1 or 2 Senate Democrats may vote against a stimulus bill; doesn't the president need at least 3 or 4 Republican votes to stop a Republican filibuster in the Senate?
I would be real careful about crosstabs. The sample size of most polls these days are so small that the sample sizes of the crosstabs are meaningless. An overall sample size of say 800 (pretty big by today's standards) means that the sample size for any of the 4 regions is 200. It's awfully iffy to speculate on a region's preferences based on 200 voters.
State and regional polls at least have a reasonable sample size (whether anyone's samples are truly random and independent is another matter).
1. I am troubled that the decline in Obama's poll numbers in the battleground states has happened at the same time that the Obama field organization has been in full swing opening offices, recruiting volunteers and registering new voters. Are McCain's television adverts trumping the combination of the Obama adverts and the field organization?
2. I always suspected (but have no proof) that many of the newly registered Democrats in the northern industrial states (new voters and party switchers) voted for Clinton in the primaries in order to register their disapproval of Obama. If so, we are not seeing Hillary die-hards holding out, but we are seeing anti-Obama voters moving from one anti-Obama candidate to another. Nothing much to do with Hillary.
3. Do we know anything about how enthusiastic Obama and McCain supporters currently are? We never have a near 100% turn-out. Maybe the strategy is that a lot more McCain supporters will not vote, as opposed to Obama supporters who will vote. (Although I presume that the Rove 72 hour drive will be in effect). So, McCain could turn out to be the more popular choice for president (among citizens but not 2008 GE actual voters), but Obama still might win on technical points by having a more enthusiastic group of supporters who actually vote.
Obama showed his GE skills in his election for US senator. In the primary he was pretty much the progressive reform candidate. In the general election he became the party organization candidate. Maybe his problem now is that at the same time, he has to fire up the progressive reform base in the field, while appealing to a more cynical and conservative public on the tv.
If Obama is up by 30 points amongst the working poor, and if the tracking polls showing a dead heat are to be believed, then McCain is way ahead amongst those earning more than the working poor. Why is this, and what can Obama do to close the gap?