My Predictions Came True

In June, my brother posted this on DailyKos (since I had been banned there by then). He showed it to me last night and I sat down, kept a tally. 10 counties I thought Obama needed to win to win the Presidency. I figured that if these counties fell to Obama, he would win the state it's in and thus the Presidency.

I got nine out of ten. Take a look;

(here's the link to my brother's original post; 31019/4810/881/535072

<>As I've mentioned, my brother is a political strategist. He promised to send me a message to the Obama community since he no longer posts at DKos, but it took him pretty much all weekend to do.

See, he has always been a huge admirer of Tim Russert, so he's a little bit down this weekend, but late tonight, I finally got his 10 county analysis that he promised.

So it's simple, my brother says,  win these 10 counties, Obama will be the next President, so if you live in one of these places, get out there and help him win!

10.) Hamilton County, Ohio;

If only Kerry had won Hamilton County, he probably would be President today. Thankfully, Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati and its conservative suburbs, was Obama's best county in the otherwise disastrous Ohio primary. Kerry's narrow loss may mean a win for Obama if black turnout in Cincinnati is through the roof and conservative turnout in the suburbs is suppressed due to disliking John McCain.
Obama has to, and probably will, win Franklin County (Columbus), Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), and the Akron-Youngstown area. Obama should also do better than Kerry in the Dayton area, and in Montgomery County, which he won in the primary. Obama's biggest risk is in the traditionally Democratic sixth congressional district, Ted Strickland's home turf along the Ohio River, which is part of Appalachia. Clinton cleaned up there.  
If Obama is to have any chance at winning Ohio, he HAS to win Hamilton County.

9.) Osceola County, Florida;

Gore won Osceola County, Kerry did not. Gore "won" Florida, Kerry didn't. You see where I'm going here?
Osceola County, in the heart of Florida, is home to Kissimmee, St. Cloud and Disney World. Osceola has voted for the winner of the state's electoral votes in all but 2 of the last 25 elections; 1976 and (technically) 2000. In 2004, the margin of victory for Bush in Osceola County matched almost perfectly his margin of victory statewide.
Obama didn't do well in Osceola County in the primary, only getting 25% of the vote, but had he campaigned there, perhaps he would've done better, but it's unlikely he could've won the county outright. Clinton would've done better here, that's certain and whether or not he wins here depends on whether or not he wins her voters and the Independents.
If he does win Osceola, I can't fathom a situation where he doesn't win Florida.

8.) Washoe County, Nevada;

Washoe County, with Reno at the center in Northwest Nevada, hasn't gone Democratic since 1964, but Kerry did better here than any other Democrat since, and any other Democrat before going back to FDR.
Clark County, home to Las Vegas, is all one needs to win statewide, but as John Kerry and Al Gore both learned, it will take a big Clark County win to take the state. Focusing elsewhere is not a bad idea. Though Obama only won the county by 10%, his Washoe victory helped him win the delegate count in Nevada, even while Clinton won the caucus vote.
Obama will win Clark County. If he doesn't, he isn't President, but add a win in Washoe County, he wins Nevada easily. That's five very nice Electoral Votes.

7.) Coos County, New Hampshire;

Stuck between Vermont and Maine, directly below Quebec, New Hampshire's Coos County has no big cities or popular sites, but it's a very important barometer in national elections.
Coos County has voted for the winner of the Presidential election in every cycle since 1892, except once; in 1968. Bush won New Hampshire in 2000 winning Coos County, Kerry did the same in 2004. Coos helped deliver New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton in the January primary.
Coos County sticks up like a sore thumb on a map of New Hampshire. Whether it's red or blue on Election Night will show who will win the state this year. If it goes blue, New Hampshire will deliver for Obama. If it's red, it will be a McCain state.

6.) Clay County, Missouri;

A bellwether county in a bellwether state, Clay County, which includes parts of Kansas City and suburbs like Liberty, has voted for the winner of every election from 1964-2000. In 2000, Gore won the county by one vote. ONE vote out of 80,173 cast. Nevertheless, Gore narrowly lost Missouri.
Obama didn't win Clay County in the Missouri primary, despite squeaking through statewide, but turnout was higher than in the Republican primary, where Mitt Romney beat John McCain in the county.
Missouri will be a integral state in this election. Obama can probably win without it, but there are only so many states you can say that about. If Obama wants to win Missouri, high turnout in St. Louis and Kansas City can only get him so close. A win in Clay County will put him over the top. It did for Claire McCaskill in 2004 and Mel Carnahan in 2000.

5.) Wake County, North Carolina;

Obama may not win North Carolina, but if he wants to try, he's going to have to at least win Wake County.
Wake County, home to Raleigh, Cary and parts of the Research Triangle, voted narrowly for Bush twice, but Kerry got 48% here and statewide, John Edwards, Mike Easley and even Erskine Bowles won here. The latter lost statewide despite winning Wake County, but the former two managed to win statewide in part because of the county.
Wake County is trending Democratic. Cary just elected a Democratic mayor and the county is split between the congressional districts of Democrats David Price, Brad Miller and Bob Etheridge.  Obama won Wake County big in the primary; 64%-35%, so he clearly has a strong base of support there.
A win in Wake County doesn't guarantee North Carolina, but a loss guarantees McCain take the state.

4.) Larimer County, Colorado;

North of Denver, home to Fort Collins, Loveland and Longmont, Larimer County has swung surprisingly Democratic in recent years. It nearly delivered a victory for Angie Paccione in the 4th Congressional District, and played a huge part in the victories of Ken Salazar and Bill Ritter. Mark Udall will have to win here in order to take Wayne Allard's Senate seat.
Larimer County has voted for the winner of Colorado's electoral votes in every election since 1952. Clinton won Larimer in 1992 and won Colorado, lost both in 1996. Kerry's surprisingly high 47% in the county echoed his margin statewide.
Obama is doing well in Colorado, leading in most polls. It probably means he's winning Larimer County. He cleaned up here during the Colorado caucuses and has strong support in Fort Collins. A Larimer County win means a Colorado win.

3.) Oakland County, Michigan;

Strongly Republican locally, but Democratic leaning federally, Oakland County, Michigan is home to the white flight Detroit suburbs of Pontiac, Rochester Hills, Bloomfield, Southfield, and various other opulent places north of 8 Mile Road. Gore and Kerry only narrowly won Oakland County. Even Clinton lost it in 1992 and although it has gone Democratic in the last three elections, John Kerry was the only one to get close to 50%.
Although Obama can win Michigan without Oakland, it'll be close. He would have to clean up in the Upper Peninsula, and do remarkably well around Lake Huron. He could be helped with massive turnout in Detroit, be even then only a small recount-territory win would be possible in Michigan.
A win in Oakland County seals the state.

2.) Loudoun County, Virginia;

Loudoun County, outside of Washington D.C., just beyond Fairfax County, has been a Republican stronghold for the better part of the last century, even back when Virginia was still blue.  Loudoun County voted for Bush by 12% in 2004, but Loudoun helped deliver victory for Governor Tim Kaine in 2005 and Senator Jim Webb in 2006, winning 52% and 50% respectively. Mark Warner is expected to clean up here.
Northern Virginia will be Obama's strongest part of the state. Any hopes of grasping the state from the Republicans will come here. Obama should win Arlington and Fairfax easily, will probably win Prince William County as well, but if he hopes to win Virginia, he should focus on winning Loudoun County

1.) Monroe County, Pennsylvania;

A little known county in the Poconos, Monroe County is home to the Delaware Water Gap, Stroudsburg, and plenty of former New Yorkers who felt New Jersey was too close to the city and Florida was too far.
Historically Republican, despite being part of Paul Kanjorksi's Congressional district, Monroe county voted for Bush over Kerry by 4 votes out of 56,342 cast. Just 4 votes.  That's the best a Democrat did there since 1964. The influx of New Yorkers is turning the country blue.
Obama is probably going to do worse than Kerry and Gore in Western Pennsylvania, around Pittsburgh and the coal country. To win the state,  Obama is going to have to run up the score in Eastern Pennsylvania. To do that, he's going to have to win Monroe County. He can't lose here, not even by 4 votes.

So it's simple, win these 10 counties, Obama will be the next President, so if you live in one of these places, get out there and help him win! <>

So how'd I do.

10.) Hamilton County, Ohio-

Barack Obama 208,802 52%
John McCain  187,862 47%


9.) Osceola County, Florida-

Barack Obama 59,081  60%
John McCain  39,489  40%


8.) Washoe County, Nevada

Barack Obama 99,395  55%
John McCain  76,743  43%


7.) Coos County, New Hampshire

Barack Obama 9,438  59%
John McCain  6.338  40%


6.) Clay County, Missouri

John McCain  54,425  50%
Barack Obama 53,651  49%


5.) Wake County, North Carolina

Barack Obama 247,914 57%
John McCain  183,291 42%


4.) Larimer County, Colorado

Barack Obama 84,461  54%
John McCain  68,932  44%


3.) Oakland County, Michigan

Barack Obama 372,694  57%
John McCain  276,881  42%


2.) Loudoun County, Virginia

Barack Obama 62,560  53%
John McCain  55,428  47%


1.) Monroe County, Pennsylvania

Barack Obama 36,655  58%
John McCain  25,892  41%


So how did I do?

BTW, except for Coos County and Oakland County, Bush won all of them in 2004.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, polls, pundits, Virginia (all tags)



Re: My Predictions Came True

Good job.  I knew that Missouri would be the toughest of them all.  Despite it having been much closer for us in the past, I knew it would trail North Carolina and Indiana.  Missouri is a hate state.  Let us put that off our map entirely, and redirect any resources instead to Arizona in 2012.  If we ever win Missouri, it will be our 400th electoral vote (in the future, Arizona won't have a home state effect).

By 2024, I predict Missouri will be among the Top Ten reddest states in America.  That place is no bellwether.  And yes, I really don't like Missouri (first in the nation to ban gay marriage via const. amendment).  Fuck that place.  

by BPK80 2008-11-06 12:29AM | 0 recs
Re: mizzou

 I lived there for a year. Miserable.

by QTG 2008-11-06 02:06AM | 0 recs
Re: mizzou

I believe it.  Props to St. Louis and Kansas City for coming through but unfortunately nothing is ever enough to counter what seems to be an unabated growing hate vote there.  Please be sure to correct anyone who now or in the future refers to that place as a bellwether.  The bellwether is Virginia.  

by BPK80 2008-11-06 06:11AM | 0 recs


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