A further indication that the MN SUSA poll may be out of line

So, as many know SUSA had this odd poll which not only had Obama losing to McCain by 1, but Franken losing to Coleman by 10.

Pretty serious eh?  Lost of hand-wringing and lots of WTF moments in parsing though the tabs. It's ok" we say to each other, "it has to be an outlier right? Especially since a week ago CNN/Time had Obama up to double digits" (worry worry worry)

Well there is a glimmer of hope now:

jump with me....

There's more...

Becoming an Election Judge/Poll Worker

I did it today.. it was easy. Walked up to the County Clerk's office filled out a little paperwork, took a wee test after reading about who can and can not vote. Bam, done....

One of the ways in which you can help in providing a fair election is being part of the system, be on the front lines. So in that vein I give you the massive list of 50+1 links to how you can become an Election Judge:

(cross posted from dkos, as this much work needs more than one place to reside)

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Blue Virginia

SUSA Poll out has Obama winning VA by 6 points (51% to 45%).

(crosstabs here -http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=c16bc98c-8d29-4b28-8aae-fc8aac 9471ad)

A few interesting things to pull out for further commentary:

Obama has a 4 point lead in party affiliation voters, McCain attracts 87% of Rs, Obama 91%(!) of Ds

McCain's base is less sure of their vote, a full 46% say they could change their mind, 35% say the same of Obama

Among women, Obama led by 6 points before Sarah Palin was named to the GOP ticket, now leads by 16.

McCain's target audiences, (the demographics he hits 50% and better with?) male white, prolife, conservative, very religious,  who make >50K a year and live in Shenandoah.

Obama's targets (50% +), Females, Blacks, 18-49 years old, moderates, Liberals, college educated, pro choice, <50K a year, and live the Notheeast and Southeast parts of the state

There's more...

No More


We are past the primary.
We are past the nomination.
We are past the VP selection.
The Clintons have given great speeches.
Love and admiration has been shown towards both Hillary and Bill.

This is it.

There's more...

The possibility of TX

There is little doubt that the conventional wisdom that TX stays in the win column for the Repus this election cycle is grounded in reality.


Consider the following demographics and number crunching if you will:

1.) 2004
Exit polls show that Hispanics made up 24% of the electorate in TX and Blacks 21%.

2.) With Obama leading the ticket, in combination with the big voter registration drives, I think it is reasonable to say that the Black demographic will increase by a few % points, so lets postulate a minority breakdown of Hispanics 24%/Blacks 25% in the TX General election.

3.) Furthermore, if the national advantage of Obama leading among Hispanics with 62% hold true for the election cycle and is true in TX, AND Obama gets ~85% of the Black vote... then

4.) Between The Latino and Black population (.24*.62 + .25*.85             .36) Obama has roughly 36% of the vote, and would need a whopping 30% of the remaining (White/Non Hispanic) vote to reach 51%.

5.) Think he can pull off 30%?

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Mitt Romney wins Montana



Romney 38%
Paul 25%
McCain 22%
Huckabee 15%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/state/#MT


McCain is SO screwed this election

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Schwarzenegger almost as "popular" as Bush in Calf.

Awhile back there was some wild speculation that McCain stood a chance at winning Calf. this year, especially with Schwarzenegger supporting him.

There's more...


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