by Nobama, Sat May 10, 2008 at 07:53:07 PM EDT
Sen. Hillary Clinton has a better than even chance of winning the Democratic nomination, contrary to popular and uninformed opinion. The goal post has always been 2209 delegates needed to win, not the arbitrary 2025 number that doesn't include MI and FL. The primary process has always been about choosing the best candidate for the general election. That process has changed over the years. Over the past 4 decades, the Democratic party has had a 70% failure rate. Why is that?
Let's take a look at the history of presidential elections as they pertain to changes in the nominating rules, starting with 1968. LBJ's VP, Hubert H. Humphrey, was the heir-apparent, but he was challenged from the far left by Eugene McCarthy. Coming late to the race was RFK who was assassinated by a Palestinian on the night he won the CA primary. The Democratic National Convention was held in Chicago that year and to say it was tumultuous would be putting it mildly. Outside the convention center was what amounted to a police riot. IOW, all hell broke loose.
McCarthy tried in vain to gain the 1968 nomination but it ultimately went to Humphrey who didn't even run in the primaries except through surrogates. He lost to Nixon. Humphrey won 13 states plus DC, totaling 191 electoral votes (EVs). Nixon won 301 and George Wallace won 46. While that may have seemed like a crushing defeat at the time, the party hadn't seen anything yet.