• comment on a post Evidence that NJ was not a referendum on Obama/Dems over 4 years ago

    I can tell you that I live in NJ, I contributed to Obama in 2008, I voted for Obama in 2008 in both the primary and general, I would vote for Obama again, and I approve of the job he is doing (or trying to do in most cases).

    I do not approve of the job that Corzine did and I did not vote for him (I voted for Daggett).  While it's sad that Christie is now my governor, this election was 100% a referendum on Corzine and he did not deserve a 2nd term.  I do not make compromise or "lesser of two evils" votes.  That does not improve politics.

  • comment on a post Writing about politics does not make me a man over 5 years ago

    Tagging political words as "male" only works for non-political blogs.  When analyzing the political blogosphere, every blog regardless of gender is, of course, going to have political references in it.  So, I'd say this is a piece of garbage for that.

    The same thing would apply to sports blogs.  I think there would be a strong tendency for males to use sports references on non-sports blogs, but if you are analyzing specifically sports blogs, both males and females will, of course, use those references, so the algorithms breaks down.

  • It would have been a better choice only in the sense that Palin' cost him votes, so anyone who is not a negative is "better".  

    However, it would not have been enough.  Lieberman doesn't have a base anymore among Dems, Indys, or Reps.  Where does he bring in votes from?

  • comment on a post Will Lieberman Ever Pay A Price? over 5 years ago

    Barack Obama continues to show the world that he looks at situations from a different perspective than anyone else in politics.  Most Dems want Lieberman to pay a price for what really were horribly disgusting transgressions.  Instead of being vindictive like normal people, Obama would rather gather up a whole stable of people that owe him a huge favor.  It's just one more building block in the plan to actually get things done instead of play partisan politics.

  • on a comment on It's Never Too Early Open Thread over 5 years ago

    535-3

  • I agree with this.  The primary motivation for adding Hillary to the ticket was primarily electoral - she would have made it a lot easier to win the election, but in retrospect that wasn't needed.  She can accomplish much more in the Senate, especially if she can replace Reid as majority leader (which is a pipe dream, I know...).

    This really doesn't show a lot of enthusiasm from Hillary for the job, the "yeah, I guess I'll do it, but only if I'm your top candidate".  If she really, really wanted it, her answer would have been "yes, please start the process ASAP".  To me, this just confirms the "willing if necessary, but not real enthusiastic about it" story.

  • comment on a post Election Prediction Thread over 5 years ago

    Also posted in Jonathan's prediction thread last night:

    President:

    Obama 379 (53%)
    McCain 159 (45%)

    President Obama wins: CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, IL, IN, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WI
    McCain wins: AK, AL, AR, AZ, ID, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

    The closest states are IN (Obama), GA (Obama), NC (Obama), MO (McCain), and MT (McCain).

    Senate:

    Dems +9

    Dem Pickups: VA, NM, CO, NH, NC, AK, OR, MN, GA
    GOP Pickups: Nada (in fact, no race for a Dem seat is within 15 points)

    Closest race - GA (won in runoff in December).
    Say hello to Senator Al Franken

    House:

    Dems +29

    Dem Pickups
    AK-AL, AZ-01, CA-04, CO-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-24, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, LA-04, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-06, NC-08, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-09, NM-01, NM-02, NV-02, NV-03, NY-13, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, VA-05, VA-11, WA-08

    GOP Pickups
    FL-16, TX-22, PA-11, PA-12

    CA Prop8 = FAIL

    All in all, not quite as thorough of an annihilation of the GOP as I'd like, but not bad.

  • on a comment on Jonathan's Prediction Thread over 5 years ago

    I had 30 specific seats that I really think should flip with the feeling that there would be a few others.  NV-02 is one of the "others" that I added to the final prediction to get to the final line I wanted.  I don't have any sort of intimate knowledge of the district, but this is the type of disrict that I think Obama will have coattails in by getting people to think about voting Dem when they normally wouldn't.  We'll see, but that is one that I wouldn't be too surprised to miss.

  • on a comment on Jonathan's Prediction Thread over 5 years ago

    Should be VA-05, not VA-02 (along with VA-11).  Sorry, getting stuff mixed up.

  • comment on a post Jonathan's Prediction Thread over 5 years ago

    President:

    Obama 379 (53%)
    McCain 159 (45%)

    President Obama wins: CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, IL, IN, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WI
    McCain wins: AK, AL, AR, AZ, ID, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

    The closest states are IN (Obama), GA (Obama), NC (Obama), MO (McCain), and MT (McCain).

    Senate:

    Dems +9

    Dem Pickups: VA, NM, CO, NH, NC, AK, OR, MN, GA
    GOP Pickups: Nada (in fact, no race for a Dem seat is within 15 points)

    Closest race - GA (won in runoff in December).
    Say hello to Senator Al Franken

    House:

    Dems +29

    Dem Pickups
    AK-AL, AZ-01, CA-04, CO-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-24, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, LA-04, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-06, NC-08, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-09, NM-01, NM-02, NV-02, NV-03, NY-13, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, VA-02, VA-11, WA-08

    GOP Pickups
    FL-16, TX-22, PA-11, PA-12

    CA Prop8 = FAIL

    All in all, not quite as thorough of an annihilation of the GOP as I'd like, but not bad.

  • comment on a post PA & MD polling over 5 years ago

    M-D in 2004 got EVERY state winner correct and was off on the margin of victory by as many as 4 points in only one poll.  Applying that standard and forgetting that they are 4 points more pro-McCain than everyone else, Obama still has NV, CO, and PA in the bag and is likely to win VA and FL as well.  That's more than enough.

  • I agree with the other reply.  That family is an exception, not the rule.  All of the Mormons I know are great, loving people, but very, very conservative politically especially on social issues.

    Anyone on a site like this contemplating a church should look first at the Society of Friends (Quakers).  Quakers believe that there is that of God in every person (called the Inner Light).  Since every person possesses God within them, killing a person is tantamount to killing God.  Quakers oppose all forms of intentional killing from the death penalty to all war as an article of faith.  Furthermore, Quakers believe that the Inner Light is the connection that every person has with God, and that no outside person can define any individual's relationship with God.  Therefore, all services are unmoderated, mostly silent meditation with occasionally any member of the congregation who is so moved rising to speak.

    I personally thought that I would never find a organized church that would allow me to have the sort of spirituality that I thought appropriate until I attended a Quaker meeting.  When I first got that "God is inside you and your relationship with God is yours personally, so we're not going to even have ministers to interfere with that" message from the church, it was a revelation like "Oh my God, there is a church that understands".

  • comment on a post Adwatch: A Great Closing Ad from Progressive Future over 5 years ago

    This is the best closing ad of all.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eUz13-pm TY

  • comment on a post PA: PRIVATE Polls Give Obama DOUBLE-DIGIT Lead over 5 years ago

    McCain is serously underperforming in the Philly suburbs.  He is going to get absolutely crushed out here.  Practically everyone I know, Republican or Democrat, liberal, moderate, or conservative, is voting Obama and the overwhelming reason (at least for the people who normally would not vote Democratic) is Sarah Palin.  Simply put, she lost McCain any shot at PA (or NJ, which was an even longer long shot from the start...).

  • comment on a post Sarah Palin Already Losing the 2012 GOP Primary over 5 years ago

    Katie Couric permanently ruined her national political career (well, to be honest, Palin did it to herself, Couric was just the catalyst).  AK Senator is as far asshe will ever get.

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