Note that Hackett's gap closing in Hamilton County has been HUGE. He lost absentees 54.6-45.4, but he has closed to 50.8-49.2 with about 11,600 votes counted. I backed out the absentee voters and this means Hackett is winning Hamilton County poll voters 51.0-49.0.
Does anyone know how Hamilton county turned out in 2000?
Just a caution that since Hackett lives in the district and has been an elected official before, he's going to win somewhere :). So, it may be brown county. But I don't know much about Southern Ohio geography and I can't remember which town he's from, but keep that in mind.
What is expected turnout? 40,000-50,000 total votes? If that's the case, and poll voters trend towards Democrats because of Hackett's fantastic close in the polls, then this bodes very well for Hackett, right? He would need only 50.8% or so to win the election.
I am trying not to be too optimistic--those 20% wallopings in some counties will really snap you back in to reality in a hurry!
What about Alabama, where the tax raising governor is deeply unpopular, and Lucy Baxley is apparently gunning for the seat? I think we may have a better shot there than in Georgia, unless Ralph Reed's shenanigans simply explode.
Isn't a bunch of the stuff you mentioned still sitting in the Senate? I count only the Bankrupcy bill as something that the President has signed. Maybe CAFA passed and I wasn't paying attention. But I'm pretty sure the Real ID Act, the Energy bill, and the Interstate Parental whatever it is act have not passed the Senate.
The New Dem caucus made some changes to membership requirements as soon as they realized everyone wanted to be a New Democrats. So some of the exodus is related to new dues, fundraising, and attendance requirements of the Caucus.
While there are some blue dogs that are not in particularly competitive districts, a lot of them are in VERY hostile territory for Democrats. In theory, therefore, they need to demonstrate bipartisanship. Some of these districts poll at 70% pro-life or higher. Lots of them have military bases that are important employment centers, way more than the run-of-the-mill Democratic district.
Personally I think the right thing to do is to have Blue Dog Dems vote 100% pro-life and for all defense spending increases, and be full-throated social justice democrats outside of those issues. But even that might be idealistic.
I am not sure how many Republicans are currently in districts that are as hostile to the GOP as the Blue Dogs are to the Dems.