• comment on a post OH-Sen: Hackett To Run For Something over 8 years ago
    Running for a Senate race requires raising an insane amount of money. And while the blogosphere might pour it on for Hackett (and probably Jon Tester, who will be the Tony Knowles of 2006, only with a victory), Hackett simply hasn't been in politics long enough to acquire enough contacts that can funnell him that much money that quickly. He will end up taking out a loan from the favor bank, and having someone else help him raise the scratch he'll need to run for Senate.
  • comment on a post Bye Bye, Bayh over 8 years ago
    Sticking up for your home state, and burying the hatchet when you're fighting for your state, is something a lot of people respect.

    Now, I think it's weird, especially when it comes to the Court, but whatever.

  • Giuliani/Jeb '08

    Note that Jeb has constantly said that he won't run for President. The GOP would be foolish not to put him on the ballot in '08 just to lock up Florida. That reduces the election to Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Colorado.

  • comment on a post OH-Sen: Ryan Leaning Against Running over 8 years ago
    Voteview has him smack in the middle, right next to Joe Hoeffel.

    Your own Congressional Loyalty Scorecard has him as opposing 6 bills of interest out of 8 (don't know how he voted on the Stem Cell bill. That puts him slightly to the right of center within the Democratic Party. I think it's a bit much to label him as very conservative.

  • comment on a post Bush Hits His Floor over 8 years ago
    Bush cannot fall any further unless Republicans and Republican-leaning independents start to abandon him.

    Or unless self-identification as a Republican goes down. There are three ways this could happen.

    First, continued stumbling in Iraq could drive down identification with Republicanism.

    Second, continued Terri Schiavo-esque pandering to the Christian right could drive down self-identified Republicanism among the more educated Republicans.

    Third, failures to deliver to the Christian Right could drive down support among Religious conservatives.

    Of these, I think the second is most likely, followed by the first, followed by the third. But it would take a great deal of work.

  • comment on a post GOP Pulls Off Corruption Trifecta over 8 years ago
    Bob Taft and investigations into his ethical quagmires! That's not a hat trick, but instead a golden sombrero!
  • comment on a post Woodward Continues To Pitch Cheney '08 over 8 years ago
    Nixon was 55 in 1968.

    Has Bob Woodward lost all of his desk reference material?

  • on a comment on Ohio 2nd Results Thread III over 8 years ago
    "What is so different between November 2004 and August 2005 that the district has so turned against the party of their choice in such a short time?"

    Who voted.

    Also, who is on the ballot.

    Also, the favorability of the state GOP has gone in the tank.

  • comment on a post Ohio 2nd Results Thread III over 8 years ago
    What is taking the good people of Clermont County so long?

    This is looking like those late night Chicago ballots. Oy.

  • comment on a post Ohio 2nd Results Thread III over 8 years ago
    WCPO has Schmidt with an 2800 vote lead.

    Hackett needs to win the rest of the district by about 6.7%; that is, he needs to get about 53.3% of the vote. I'm skeptical that this can happen :(.

    Nonetheless, he will probably get 49% of the vote, which represents a 23% swing in a single district.

  • on a comment on Ohio 2nd Results Thread III over 8 years ago
    If Clermont is already reporting, and Hackett still holds a lead, then that might ... might ... be enough. I'm assuming that the uncounted votes in Hamilton look a lot like the counted votes in Hamilton.
  • comment on a post Ohio Results Thread II over 8 years ago
    Hamilton county is still less than 2/3rd counted, and it looks like Hackett is winning poll voters 51.5%-48.5%. Assuming precincts are roughly uniform, that means he may net another 250 or so votes from Hamilton. Since the rural counties are all almost done, that means he'll have a lead of roughly 1700 votes.

    If I've done the math right, this means Hackett needs to stay within 6.5% in Clermont county. Based on 2004 results, there's little reason to think that Clermont is significantly more D or R than the rest of the district. Is Schmidt from Clermont County? Has the GOP consolidated some strength there?

  • on a comment on Ohio Results Thread II over 8 years ago
    Because such a high chunk of the voters are in Hamilton, the fact that Hackett is winning the poll voters in hamilton might offset Schmidt's strength in Clermont county.
  • comment on a post Ohio Results Thread II over 8 years ago
    Here's the district wide results from WCPO

    305 precincts reporting

    PAUL HACKETT     23,957     51%    
    JEAN SCHMIDT     22,846     49%    

    Schmidt has reduced Hackett's margin by 450 votes in the last 46 precincts.

    No pressure, folks.

  • on a comment on Ohio Results Thread II over 8 years ago
    Okay, overall Hamilton went 53-47 for Bush, and in CD2 went 70-30 for Portman. Either way, that's a dramatic turn.

    Does anyone have the Bush-Kerry numbers for the CD2 portion of Hamilton County?

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