Running for a Senate race requires raising an insane amount of money. And while the blogosphere might pour it on for Hackett (and probably Jon Tester, who will be the Tony Knowles of 2006, only with a victory), Hackett simply hasn't been in politics long enough to acquire enough contacts that can funnell him that much money that quickly. He will end up taking out a loan from the favor bank, and having someone else help him raise the scratch he'll need to run for Senate.
Note that Jeb has constantly said that he won't run for President. The GOP would be foolish not to put him on the ballot in '08 just to lock up Florida. That reduces the election to Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Colorado.
Voteview has him smack in the middle, right next to Joe Hoeffel.
Your own Congressional Loyalty Scorecard has him as opposing 6 bills of interest out of 8 (don't know how he voted on the Stem Cell bill. That puts him slightly to the right of center within the Democratic Party. I think it's a bit much to label him as very conservative.
If Clermont is already reporting, and Hackett still holds a lead, then that might ... might ... be enough. I'm assuming that the uncounted votes in Hamilton look a lot like the counted votes in Hamilton.
Hamilton county is still less than 2/3rd counted, and it looks like Hackett is winning poll voters 51.5%-48.5%. Assuming precincts are roughly uniform, that means he may net another 250 or so votes from Hamilton. Since the rural counties are all almost done, that means he'll have a lead of roughly 1700 votes.
If I've done the math right, this means Hackett needs to stay within 6.5% in Clermont county. Based on 2004 results, there's little reason to think that Clermont is significantly more D or R than the rest of the district. Is Schmidt from Clermont County? Has the GOP consolidated some strength there?