"I've spoken to two other knowledgeable individuals about Edwards recently, and what they tell me is similarly discouraging. Journalists who covered Edwards the first time don't buy this transformation, and there's plenty of oppo out there. New Orleans bloggers are now complaining that Edwards just used their city as a photo op. It's sad. I'm getting the sense that Edwards is going to have real trouble moving forward unless he seriously tightens up his operation and stops blowing in the wind. "
Are you aware how much that sounds like the opening paragraph of an Adam Nagourney article?
The other thing to consider is how easy/hard it is to attract new non-blog readers to top blogs. If new readers read Kos for the first time and think find it inaccessible, then it may get harder to attract those who are less intravenously connected to politics.
Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. While this presents us with a limited target area, at the very least Bill Sali (ID-02) and Jim Sensenbrenner (WI-05), pop up as extreme wingnuts who might be vulnerable to this strategy.
Also Michelle Bachmann (MN-06), though perhaps her seat is winnable outright if there is a different Democratic candidate.
NPR had it this evening ... though they didn't have Gore saying "I'm not running for President". So, I don't think Gore is definitively out.
However, I generally think it's unlikely that he will run, but I don't have anything to base that on other than (a) gut, (b) he would have to run against Hillary, which would make for too much of that campaign trail horse-race gossip that he hates with good reason, (c) it's not clear what space he would occupy at this point.
DW Nominate rankings from 108th and 109th sessions.
In the 108th, you see him clustered around Jim Clyburn, Corrine Brown, Chris Van Hollen, Marty Meehan. In the 109th, he seems to have shifted to the right by about 30 congressmen. I don't know how much of that is him moving and how much is him standing still while the rest of the caucus becomes more partisan. But his voting record seems pretty solid for Colorado; somewhere between Ron Wyden and Debbie Stabenow on the political spectrum. Obviously it would be nice if one of the Mountain West Senators would really turn out in the Wellstone/Feingold mold, but those sorts of politicians are very rare.
Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, Florida, and Michigan all have maps that were drawn under 1-party Republican rule.
Democrats have managed to eliminate the GOP advantage in PA and NY, but not the other 3. If we can hold the Gov' Mansion in MI (tough) and OH (easier), we'll be in good shape to get at least bipartisan drawn maps in those states, which will make a big difference.
Plus maybe a better map in Oregon, and who knows what the South will look like.
I think the only path to victory for one of those is to last for a long time with modest success. You have to be able to string together 2nd and 3rd place victories while still sustaining funds and volunteers.
Bill Clinton was able to do this because he had a network of grassroots support AND backing from lots of the business, as the DLC candidate.
I don't think there's anyone in the race who can do that this time. Perhaps Richardson.
This has been my pet district since 2004 when the USDA barred Creekstone Farms from selling beef to Japan for no good reason. Sadly I'm not sure its within reach. Tiahrt ran slightly ahead of Bush in '04, and the district has been redrawn since Glickman held it. I don't think it's viable.