(1) Considering Rendell is Jewish, and from Philly (which has the largest concentration of Jewish voters, I would assume), I imagine he won the Jewish vote.
(2) Considering that New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut account for something like 33% of America's Jewish population (and California another large chunk), I think it's fair to say that in the rest of the country, Obama is winning the Jewish vote. Exit polls showed Clinton getting 60+% of the Jewish vote in NJ and NY, but Obama winning in CT.
gave him smaller leads than the one he has in Oregon right now. Now, Clinton will be able to contest Oregon, but I don't think she'll be able to shrink the margin. With the exception of Ohio and Texas theres nowhere where Clinton has managed to increase the margin from early poll results.
They're called "field staff". The Obama campaign has been up and running for sixteen months right now. I'm sure there are plenty of under-25s working in politics for the very first time that started in March of 2005.
Do we really think think the Obama campaign let go of the people who, on their own, organized Boise State's students for Obama starting last summer?
Obama won't have to spend any money in a lot of the swing states where Kerry had to work: WA, OR, WI, MN, Maybe NH as well. The only big defense is PA.
That means he can concentrate his resources on OH, IA, MO, VA, FL, CO, and NV. Maybe NC, GA, and SC if he has the resources. We don't have enough polling to know how this will shake out; I think there was one that showed IA big for Obama, so maybe MO is his next best bet.
Using exit polls for primaries is silly ... a lot of those states weren't very competitive. In most states African-Americans will turn out in roughly double the percent of the state that they are, unless the DP is very strong in that state (like NY or CA). And even then it will be at least 133% of their representation in the state.
In addition to the seven you mentioned, DE is a possibility. He's going to play in UT where he's polled well in the past, maybe KS since it's a caucus. MN is a quasi-caucus too. Alaska has very few Dems and they're all hippies. Probably ID as well. DE is plausible.
So, I think his zone of competition is IL, GA, AL, DE, SD, CO, MO, KS, MN, UT, ND, ID. Plus as many delegates as he can in CA, NY, and NJ.
With 23 states up for grabs, he can't win more than a third of them unless something flukey happens.
It's entirely plausible. Clinton wins AR, NY, NJ, and CT. Obama wins IL and UT. Who wins the deep south where African-Americans make up 40-55% of the vote? either one can make a cross-cutting coalition. Who wins CA? She'll have four weeks to make the case that the Obama health care plan would leave people out in the cold.
Looks like 1, 6, 29, and 34 are shaping up nicely. The remaining precincts mean we might put 28 back into play, and it's too early to tell on 33, 37 and 39. 27 does appear to be gone, looking at the remaining votes.