Are Republicans really winning Health Care Reform?

Obama has run a nearly flawless administration and I've been wondering how he could be handling the health care argument so poorly. It simply doesn't fit with how he ran his campaign and his first few months in office.

Suddenly, here we are at the center of the key issue in the  election, and Obama and the Dems are ceding to the Republicans?

It doesn't make sense. I thought he (and the Dems) were too smart for this.

But what if this is all part of the plan?

It's possible by ceding the public option, the Republicans would be backed into a corner to support the bill. If it appears as if they "won", then they would have to support it, right?

No. Because we already know that no matter What the bill says, the vast majority of Republicans will not support health care reform of any kind.

This would, once again, paint them as the 'Party of No' and put them back on the defense.

The Dems could go ahead and put through their own bill without Republican support.

According to Howard Dean, on "Morning Joe", he stated that the Democrats will get the Public Option pushed through with Reconciliation which requires only 50 senate votes.

What do you think?

Tags: Bill, Democrats, Health care, obama, Republicans, Senate (all tags)

Comments

17 Comments

Health Care Reform

What's your take on the idea that this is all part of the Democrats plan and that the Public Option will be pushed through with Reconciliation?

by nikkid 2009-08-17 07:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Are Republicans really winning Health Care Ref

I don't know about the legislative process but i think the whole legislation can't be pushed through with a reconciliation process . Some parts of it would be held up  as I understand it . That would pretty much mean a whole chunk of the reform effort would be lost because of that procedure .

In my own opinion healthcare reform can't be done using that procedure , better yet some parts of it can be done but it won't be wise . That move would probably harm his adminstration and the democrats more than help..

It would cause a major uproar..

by lori 2009-08-17 08:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Are Republicans really winning Health Care Ref

Yes, but you're forgetting that by dropping the Public Option, Obama has TRIPLED the number of Republicans that will vote for this plan.  Before, ZERO Republicans would have voted for this.  But now, THREE TIMES more will.  I.e. 3 X 0 = 0.  That ain't nothin'.

by the mollusk 2009-08-17 08:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Reconciliation

Reconciliation depends on the rulings of the Senate Parliamentarian, a non-partisan post.  If the parliamentarian rules that a section is not germane to the budget process, it is stricken from the bill.  However 60 Senators can vote to overrule the parliamentarian.

The main pro to it is that it forces Republicans to go on the record about health care A LOT and also it only requires 51 votes to pass.  The main con is that no one knows what would result.  It could just be money without instructions on how the system is reformed.

However, the Grassley implosion makes this a more attractive option everyday.

by AZphilosopher 2009-08-17 09:23AM | 0 recs
Are Republicans really whining ?

I've wondered about this too.  We all assume that the Dems wanted "single-payer", and that the "public option" was the compromise.  But only the Left has ever really talked about that.  

Also, can you call this a co-op plan, but have a rule buried in there somewhere that all of the co-ops are run from a central office, part of the duties of which is to negotiate prices?  So, in effect, it'd be called a "co-op", but would function much like a "public option"?

To your larger point, though.  The upside for Democrats is that the ball is entirely in their court.  This is how the Republicans were (much to my chagrin) around 2002-2004.  That is, the only significant voices on anything were those of Republicans.  Occasionally they'd trot out Biden or Lieberman to present an opposing view, but they had no power and everyone knew it.  The importance of this is that it brands the party as representing the range of views in America.  In effect, the party in power becomes the "American Party".  We'll see if the Dems can use this more effectively than the Republicans did.

by the mollusk 2009-08-17 08:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Are Republicans really winning Health Care

The Public option will be dropped. But, listen very closely for the dropped plural. Even Conrad has dropped the plural. We are not now talking about state by state Co-opts but a single national co-opt.

As the initial paymaster and control of the organizing and setup the administration could easily accept that instead of a Public option. What is more such a national co-opt would probably do just what a public option would do for the first decade or so. The question we need to ask is that long enough to get the public ready for a single payer system?

by Judeling 2009-08-17 09:05AM | 0 recs
Probably the most interesting post I have read all

week, certianly compared to the sackclothe and ashes "OH OBAMA screwed US" typical threads.

But, if what you say is true, wouldn't the Republicans just switch to kill the national co-op idea, and get the purchased BlueDogs to go along?

After all, the ONLY solution exceptable to the Health Care Industrial Complex is NO change, period.

by WashStateBlue 2009-08-17 09:44AM | 0 recs
Probably

But that gets back to one of the diarist's main points.  If the Democrats appear to cave and the Republicans still vote no, there's a political cost to them for doing that.  There is also a risk to Republicans if the Democrats pass a decent compromise with only Democratic votes.  Talk about shutting the door on yourself.

by the mollusk 2009-08-17 09:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Are Republicans really winning Health Care

I believe you are showcasing a long-term strategy in your thinking. This is oftentimes a rare attribute that I see on this board. Kudos to you, for understanding that this may be a mult-step process.

by Check077 2009-08-17 09:49AM | 0 recs
Ha! Ha! Ha!

The Republicans won't accept a Co-opt and will scream that the Co-opt is the first step toward Stalinism and Nazism. The public will scream and the Democrats will drop the co-opt plan, too. If anything happens in this Congress it will be a few minor rule changes on pre-existing conditions.

Meaningful health care reform is probably dead as a door knob.

by Zzyzzy 2009-08-17 08:10PM | 0 recs
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

From TPM:


RNC: Think The GOP Will Support Co-ops? Think Again!
By Brian Beutler - August 17, 2009, 4:50PM

The very basic logic of the public option is this: Most Democrats support a strong public option, most Republicans oppose Democratic health care reform period, so perhaps Democrats can win over a few Republicans if they keep government out of the insurance industry and create a system of privately-held health-care co-operatives instead. Simple right?

Not if the RNC has anything to say about it.

They're out today with a new release, attacking the co-op idea and charging that the the "reports of the public option's demise" are "greatly exaggerated."

So if at the very least you thought that the Democrats could escape the "government run health care" canard by, say, dropping their plans to create a government run health insurance system, you were mistaken. As the RNC makes clear, in their eyes, "Public option by any other name is still government-run health

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

by the mollusk 2009-08-17 01:25PM | 0 recs
Dean's not a source for this stuff

I love Dean, but he doesn't know anything about the process anymore. He holds no office, either appointed or elected, and he's not a favorite of the administration - passed over twice for HHS and still bad blood with Emmanuel. He's good for policy ideas but not procedure info.

by Nathan Empsall 2009-08-17 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Are Republicans

The republicans are in the pocket of the insurance companies and that will become apparent. The republicans main objective is to make Obama into a partisan guy instead of a reformer.  That's why they didn't give Sotomayor a number of their votes and that's why they refuse to give on health care. That's their main objective, so they can have a voice and try to win seats in the next election so they can muster a filibuster.

by olawakandi 2009-08-17 01:49PM | 0 recs
Comments

Thanks for all of your comments. It is interesting to watch this unfold. On the one hand, you have Pelosi stating they are standing firm with the Public Option; on the other hand, headlines are screaming that the Public Option is dead.

I believe Obama really wants the public option just as much as most democrats. If the MSM is reporting that Obama will drop it to get Republican support and they still won't support the bill - well, then the Dems are free to push it through without them...

We'll see what happens.

by nikkid 2009-08-17 05:52PM | 0 recs
Repubicans Winning in a Rout

Yes, the Republicans are not only winning the health care debate, they are slaughtering the Democrats. If the army is shooting at buffalo, the Republicans is the army and the Democrats are the buffalo dropping dead. You can walk on the carcass of dead buffalo from Maine to Alaska, down to San Diego, across to Miami and back to Maine without ever stepping on the ground.

Every time the Republicans take control of the White House, they get what they want even if they don't have a majority in Congress. You can count on the Democrats caving in. Every time the Democrats get control of the White House and 60 percent of Congress, the Republicans get what they want. The Democrats compromise, the Republicans say no, the Democrats compromise again, the Republicans say no, the Democrats compromise again and so on and so on until the Republicans win a complete victory.

If the current trends continue. The Republicans will take over Congress in 2010. The Democrats just don't get it. Trying to placate the center never works. By not pursuing your beliefs and playing the "median voter theorem game" that Democrats love to play, they lose credibility with the voters. Great leaders such as FDR and (unfortunately Reagan) don't compromise until the end. They bargain hard and get most of what they want.

by Zzyzzy 2009-08-17 08:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Repubicans Winning in a Rout

I think this is slightly pessimistic.  The more realistic scenario is that the public becomes more fed up with the majority but doesn't fully kick them out because the R's aren't seen as viable (see early 2000's).  Even in the 12 presidential it strikes me that it will be the president versus a Republican version of John Kerry.

Remember Republicans could carry really high negatives before actually losing control of anything and they still carry really high negatives now.  That's why I think most of the "1994 redux" stories are full of hot air.

What the media and the pessimists don't take into account is that the intensity of negative feelings != the number of people with negative feelings.

by AZphilosopher 2009-08-18 03:50AM | 0 recs
When the going gets tough....

Democrats tend to go into gloom and doom...

And, we have agents provactuers like Kent who really doesn't give a SHIT about anything, a creature of the blog who is just here to piss on the parade.

Republicans NEVER give up, they unfailingly belief in their control, EVEN when they seemingly are rejected at the ballot box.

True, I think Health Care reform is probably dead and buried, but again, I always said, the chances of THIS congress passing reform was at most 25%.

We don't live in the era of LBJ, where all the money was controlled by the Party, and he could simply enforce the party will.

Bachaus, Conrad, all those red state dems are SO CHEAP to buy for the Health Care industrial complex, and, really, fighing AGAINST Obama in the red states they are from is a winning relection strategy.

This was doomed from the start, but, we will have the Doom sayers spending the next 6 months claiming the Democrat (yes, some of them even used the Republican nomenclature) party dead and buried for 2010.

I think again, this is going to be a struggle to start to pull the country BACK to the middle, we have had DECADES of Reaganism, and, anyone that thinks those Democrats fighting health care are aligned with the party of FDR, think again.

They are Reaganites, and, and reflective of their age and their background.

So, I always though, Health Care reform was unreachable this year, until a bigger percentage of those old white assholes who have hit Medicare and scream "I GOT MINE, FUCK THE REST OF YOU!" are dead and buried, and more millentials can rest control from the coporationations,,,,

by WashStateBlue 2009-08-18 11:34AM | 0 recs

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