• comment on a post RCP Polls: Single digit race over 5 years ago

    Do you all ever look beyond the cover?

    RV to LV no real change in responses, changes in reporting.  

    Some of those polls changed democratic party ID from +5 or +6 to +2 on 10/6.

    I'm not saying to ignore any poll but when you see dramatic changes you have to look at the cross tabs to get the true story.  

    The race didn't "tighten" who many pollsters included in their sample changed.  This change may be right or it may be wrong but that is the reason for change in the numbers.  

  • comment on a post Hotline tracking an outlier? over 5 years ago

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/la bel/pollster%20ratings

    As the above link demonstrates, Zogby and CBS (but Zogby in particular) are like throwing darts at a board, not very good record of getting things right.  

    While I don't like their politics, Rasmussen is one of the most reliable pollsters out there.  

    Sadly Gallup is not all that accurate in predicting absolute margins but are useful for demonstrating a trend line.

  • comment on a post Will the RNC pull out of the McCain Campaign? over 5 years ago

    out but if Obama maintains a large lead they will focus on the congressional contest.  

    They DON'T want to loose seats trying to stand by McCain if they conclude he can't win.

  • comment on a post Michigan over? over 5 years ago


    Real cards you can print out to play..

  • comment on a post Biden double standard over 5 years ago

    People still fighting the primary wars.  Kinda like the Japanese soldiers stuck on islands who thought WWII was still going on, years later.  


    It's over...the primary fights are over, it's time to come back to civilization.

  • As it turns out, there are no record of trade missions, so far.  

    http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Did_Palin_ lie_about_trade_missions_0927.html

    Research doesn't show a single Alaska-Russia trade mission since former Democratic governor Tony Knowles visited Siberia in 1997, when Palin was running Wasilla, according to Salon.com.

    When the reporter asked gubernatorial spokeswoman Kate Morgan about this issue, she refused to answer. Morgan claimed she couldn't legally discuss the matter because she is a state employee and the reporter had learned about the trade missions through the Couric interview, which stems from her bid for the Oval Office.

  • Ok, true... I should change to "almost" no writers needed...:)

  • Thank you, that's strange

    When I pull up the post I see the NBC video, even when I'm not in "edit" mode...


  • comment on a post The Humiliation of Sarah Palin over 5 years ago


    Will someone please put Sarah Palin out of her agony? Is it too much to ask that she come to realize that she wants, in that wonderful phrase in American politics, "to spend more time with her family"?

    Obviously these are very serious challenges and constraints. In these times, for John McCain to have chosen this person to be his running mate is fundamentally irresponsible. McCain says that he always puts country first. In this important case, it is simply not true.


  • on a comment on Polls are converging over 5 years ago
    New Gallup is 49-44
  • on a comment on McCain Wins But Not By Enough over 5 years ago

    There are more democrats, but a disproportionatey large number of those who watched were democrats.

    Really, well first a logical issue.  For the purposes of the poll it does not matter how many democrats watched vs. republicans, what matters is  how many D/R/I's were interviewed.  

    What question are you answering...

    If Obama won with Democrats and won with independents and undecideds, how could he not be winning?  Unless of course you are arguing there are more republicans than democrats + 51% of independents, but that can't be the case because you said "there are more democrats" in you previous post.   :)

  • on a comment on Polls are converging over 5 years ago

    The "suggest", was in reference to the results of the poll. Not that the poll in those states would be predictive of the results in other states.  It was never presented that way.  

    Trying to parse what "suggest" means that is like McCain talking about what he meant by fundamentals.  

    But it's all good, not worth a continuing argument.  

  • on a comment on Polls are converging over 5 years ago


    Results in CA suggest the responses of swing state voters in OH and NC?

    That's just crazy talk, if it did they would not be swing states.

  • on a comment on Polls are converging over 5 years ago

    It's not a quibble, you presented it as a statement of fact.    

    You are right it's not a big deal, other than the fact that a poll you represent suggest a particular result by a particular type of voter in a swing state, in response to the debates didn't exist.  

    Rather than accusing me of quibbling, why not just admit you made a honest mistake?

    No worries, even if you don't, I don't think you had bad intent.  I started out just trying to point out a honest error, I only decided to follow  up when instead of acknowledging the mistake you tried to recast your comments.  

    Anyway, not that big a deal, have a good one.

  • on a comment on Polls are converging over 5 years ago


    There is the link to Survey USA.

    There is no Swing State, polling of independents response to the debate, as mentioned in your first post in this thread.  

    I quote:

    Some of the SurveyUSA polling about the debate suggests independent voters in swing states believed that McCain outperformed Obama in the debate

    Sorry not trying to be a jerk but that's what you said, and no such polling exist of independents in "swing states"  


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